Tornado outbreak possible - March 2-4

[RL3AO]

Colorful night in the Central US.

[Bunkertor]

[jaxfladude]

Tuesday PM* seems to be the time frame for my area's threat of severe weather, the latest forecast is the the worst may be more north of the Jacksonville metro area, but the chances of nasty weather is still possible...
*Late afternoon to early evening

[Crostorm]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 708 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTH OF
FORT COBB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ANADARKO...FORT COBB AND
GRACEMONT.

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

[jaxfladude]

Prayers for all that have been/are being affected, and those that will be affected.....

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

[cheezyWXguy]

i was looking at my radar when this storm caught my eye...its the one on the tarrant-dallas county border. It looks like it has a hook on its back side but im not sure.
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... g_off=9999
btw, its labeled A2

[Bunkertor]

TORNADO WARNING
OKC109-030215-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0010.080303T0148Z-080303T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
748 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 748 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BETHANY...CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CITY...
NICHOLS HILLS...THE VILLAGE AND WARR ACRES.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 125 AND 130.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 143 AND 154.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 116 AND 129.

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

[Bunkertor]

L I V E

http://www.koco.com/video/11098209/index.html

[Crostorm]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe a function of Miller Lite while watching NASCAR, and I hope no tornadoes hit where people live, but with OU-Norman, Severe Storms Lab, and the Storm Prediction Center, if there was a funnel cloud or brief tornado, even at dusk, someone has video.



I was looking at hatched 10%/45% overall SWODY2, and whether tomorrow has a tragic death toll or is just a matter for internet discussion, all a matter of whether tornadoes stay rural, or whether some small city or town winds up in the path of one of the EF-2 or stronger tornadoes likely tomorrow.

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 85...

VALID 030201Z - 030300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 85 CONTINUES.

LLJ IS INCREASING MARKEDLY ACROSS NERN TX INTO ERN OK AHEAD OF
SURGING COLD FRONT. 1KM AGL WIND SPEEDS ARE NOW ON THE ORDER OF
50KT AT BOTH FWS AND TLX...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS INCREASING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OBSERVED.
WITHIN THIS ZONE...AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED
NEAR THE RED RIVER AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING NNEWD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR-SFC BASED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SFC DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S. CURRENTLY MONITORING
THIS REGION CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 0Z WRF sounding has surface low over NE Louisiana at 6 pm CST tomorrow. Natchez, MS sounding is just sick...

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

NWS Jackson goes insane:

000
FXUS64 KJAN 030243 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
835 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCLUDING TORNADOES...

DISCUSSION: THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
LOOK VERY OMINOUS! NEW 00Z NAM HAS ARRIVED AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO THE PREV RUNS ON TIMING AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. IF ANY
THING...IT IS A TAD STRONGER AS THE SFC LOW IS DEEPER...THUS MAKING
THE LLJ A TAD STRONGER. I`M NOT SURPRISED THE SFC LOW IS A BIT
DEEPER AND FULLY EXPECT THE 00Z GFS TO FOLLOW SUIT. THIS IS TOO MUCH
OF A POWER HOUSE SYSTEM TO KEEP PRESSURE >1006-1009MB. I CAN EVEN
SEE PRESSURE GET LOWER THAN WHAT THE NAM/EURO ARE ADVERTISING WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO 1000MB ACROSS THE CWA.

I`M BECOMING VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE 21-00Z WINDOW AS THE NAM/GFS
ALL INDICATE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THINGS BETTER
WITH THE NAM B/C OF THE 21Z TIME STEP. THE MAIN THING IS THEY BOTH
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE/FRONT AND MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A LARGE FAMILY OF SUPERCELLS THAT
RAPIDLY TRACK NE INTO/ACROSS THE CWA. I DID A LOCAL SVR WX CHECKLIST
FOR MLU AT 21 USING GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GOT WHAT AMOUNTS TO THE
HIGHEST RANKING (EXTREME) WHICH IS RARE TO ACHIEVE (FEB 5 2008 ALSO
HIT IT) WHICH HISTORICALLY SUPPORTS A SIG RISK OF A HIGH END EVENT
WITH SIG TYPE TORNADOES. WHAT ALSO GETS ME CONCERNED IS WHERE THE
STORMS INITIATE...SW TO CENTRAL LA. THEY THEN WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ALMOST NNE INTO OUR W/SW CWA. THIS GIVES ANY SUPERCELL TIME TO
MATURE AND BECOME LONG LIVED. THOSE ARE THE WORST AS FEB 5 HAS
SHOWN. I CAN REALLY SEE A CORRIDOR ALONG THE TRACE AND ABOUT 50
MILES EITHER SIDE OF THAT BEING EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR SIG
TORNADOES BETWEEN 4-9 PM. MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HISTORIC
TYPE SVR WX DAY AND ALL NEED TO BE WX CONSCIOUS.

AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST ELEMENTS...I RAISED TEMPS A BIT FOR THE
W HALF TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS ARE KEEPING THINGS WELL MIXED AND WE
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS STREAM IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. I ALSO ISSUED A WIND
ADV FOR THE W 2/3 AND A LAKE WIND FOR THE E REMAINING 1/3. AN
INCREASING PRESS GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
WINDS DURING THE DAY. THE FLAT DELTA LAND ACROSS THE W/NW CWA WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. EXPECT SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
35-45 MPH. THE E HALF WILL SEE 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25-35
MPH.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/cgi-bin/pro ... &version=0

[CrazyC83]

Hints of a High Risk?

000
FXUS64 KSHV 030328
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
928 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

DISCUSSION:
LOTS TO UPDATE THIS EVENING. TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES UNTIL 400 AM. HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL
600 AM FOR OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS. HAVE BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS HOLDING
TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH VAD WIND PROFILES OUT
WEST NEAR 60KTS AT 4-5 KFT. THIS HAS HELPED CONVECTION TO GENERATE
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEST.
LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILE SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS ALONG AND NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. SQUALL LINE BEGINNING
TO ORIENT ITSELF NOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
NW TX WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH THE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT BUT
NOT UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE IF THEN. NEW 00Z NAM SHOWS FRONTAL
MOVEMENT SLOWING DOWN WHICH IS NOT GOOD FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EXPECTED
SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS WELL.

MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ALREADY OUTLOOKED ACROSS THIS
AREA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE RISK UPGRADED LATER
TONIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. HAVE UPDATED THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT ALL THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT...13.

[CrazyC83]

New watch coming:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 85...

VALID 030504Z - 030600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 85 CONTINUES.

...NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SJT WARNING
AREA...

LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO FAR WEST TX AS
UPPER SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND EVEN CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST TX...NW OF SJT.
THIS SWRN-MOST CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AS DRYLINE
RETREATED INTO SURGING COLD FRONT. LATEST THINKING IS THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE PER LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST POST
FRONTAL...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. ANY
STORMS THAT CAN MANAGE TO ROOT INTO THIS AIRMASS CERTAINLY COULD
ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND POSE A RISK OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES. WITH TIME THIS SCENARIO MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY AS UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS INTO WEST TX. NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
SJT WARNING AREA.

..DARROW.. 03/03/2008


ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

31720108 33069832 32319764 30839982 30720092

[Extremeweatherguy]

Things are going downhill in a hurry across northern Texas this evening...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/so ... e_loop.php

[HarlequinBoy]

So is this going to go through the night? Any predictions for tomorrow?


Also saw on local news a video from a sister station in OKC.. they had footage of a rope torrnado with minor damage.

Anyways, hope tomorrow isn't anything like Super Tuesday across this area.. the Arklamiss could get slammed.