
Tornado outbreak possible - March 2-4
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:NWS Jackson goes insane:
000
FXUS64 KJAN 030243 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
835 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCLUDING TORNADOES...
DISCUSSION: THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
LOOK VERY OMINOUS! NEW 00Z NAM HAS ARRIVED AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO THE PREV RUNS ON TIMING AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. IF ANY
THING...IT IS A TAD STRONGER AS THE SFC LOW IS DEEPER...THUS MAKING
THE LLJ A TAD STRONGER. I`M NOT SURPRISED THE SFC LOW IS A BIT
DEEPER AND FULLY EXPECT THE 00Z GFS TO FOLLOW SUIT. THIS IS TOO MUCH
OF A POWER HOUSE SYSTEM TO KEEP PRESSURE >1006-1009MB. I CAN EVEN
SEE PRESSURE GET LOWER THAN WHAT THE NAM/EURO ARE ADVERTISING WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO 1000MB ACROSS THE CWA.
I`M BECOMING VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE 21-00Z WINDOW AS THE NAM/GFS
ALL INDICATE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THINGS BETTER
WITH THE NAM B/C OF THE 21Z TIME STEP. THE MAIN THING IS THEY BOTH
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE/FRONT AND MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A LARGE FAMILY OF SUPERCELLS THAT
RAPIDLY TRACK NE INTO/ACROSS THE CWA. I DID A LOCAL SVR WX CHECKLIST
FOR MLU AT 21 USING GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GOT WHAT AMOUNTS TO THE
HIGHEST RANKING (EXTREME) WHICH IS RARE TO ACHIEVE (FEB 5 2008 ALSO
HIT IT) WHICH HISTORICALLY SUPPORTS A SIG RISK OF A HIGH END EVENT
WITH SIG TYPE TORNADOES. WHAT ALSO GETS ME CONCERNED IS WHERE THE
STORMS INITIATE...SW TO CENTRAL LA. THEY THEN WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ALMOST NNE INTO OUR W/SW CWA. THIS GIVES ANY SUPERCELL TIME TO
MATURE AND BECOME LONG LIVED. THOSE ARE THE WORST AS FEB 5 HAS
SHOWN. I CAN REALLY SEE A CORRIDOR ALONG THE TRACE AND ABOUT 50
MILES EITHER SIDE OF THAT BEING EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR SIG
TORNADOES BETWEEN 4-9 PM. MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HISTORIC
TYPE SVR WX DAY AND ALL NEED TO BE WX CONSCIOUS.
AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST ELEMENTS...I RAISED TEMPS A BIT FOR THE
W HALF TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS ARE KEEPING THINGS WELL MIXED AND WE
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS STREAM IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. I ALSO ISSUED A WIND
ADV FOR THE W 2/3 AND A LAKE WIND FOR THE E REMAINING 1/3. AN
INCREASING PRESS GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
WINDS DURING THE DAY. THE FLAT DELTA LAND ACROSS THE W/NW CWA WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. EXPECT SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
35-45 MPH. THE E HALF WILL SEE 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25-35
MPH.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/cgi-bin/pro ... &version=0
Bump this to the next page, because I missed it and I'm sure others did too.
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SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 90
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTH AND WEST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 650 AM UNTIL 100
PM CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
HOUSTON TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 89...
DISCUSSION...STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
E/SE ACROSS WATCH WHERE AIR MASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.
PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...HALES
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 90
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTH AND WEST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 650 AM UNTIL 100
PM CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
HOUSTON TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 89...
DISCUSSION...STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
E/SE ACROSS WATCH WHERE AIR MASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.
PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...HALES
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 031244
WOU0
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 90
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC027-073-091-139-031900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0090.080303T1250Z-080303T1900Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER
UNION
LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-069-081-085-111-119-031900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0090.080303T1250Z-080303T1900Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN
NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE
UNION WEBSTER
TXC005-015-037-039-041-051-063-067-071-073-089-149-157-167-183-
185-199-201-203-225-241-285-287-291-313-315-339-343-347-351-365-
373-387-401-403-405-407-419-423-449-455-457-459-471-473-477-481-
499-031900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0090.080303T1250Z-080303T1900Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA AUSTIN BOWIE
BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON
CAMP CASS CHAMBERS
CHEROKEE COLORADO FAYETTE
FORT BEND GALVESTON GREGG
GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS
HARRISON HOUSTON JASPER
LAVACA LEE LIBERTY
MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES NEWTON
PANOLA POLK RED RIVER
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SAN JACINTO SHELBY SMITH
TITUS TRINITY TYLER
UPSHUR WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON WOOD
GMZ335-031900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0090.080303T1250Z-080303T1900Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...LCH...EWX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 90 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX CW 031250Z - 031900Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40WNW ELD/EL DORADO AR/ - 70WSW HOU/HOUSTON TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /31E TXK - 30N PSX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 33439198 29259494 29259776 33439494
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 90 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 90
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTH AND WEST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 650 AM UNTIL 100
PM CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
HOUSTON TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 89...
DISCUSSION...STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
E/SE ACROSS WATCH WHERE AIR MASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.
PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...HALES
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 90
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTH AND WEST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 650 AM UNTIL 100
PM CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
HOUSTON TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 89...
DISCUSSION...STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
E/SE ACROSS WATCH WHERE AIR MASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.
PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...HALES
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 031244
WOU0
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 90
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC027-073-091-139-031900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0090.080303T1250Z-080303T1900Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER
UNION
LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-069-081-085-111-119-031900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0090.080303T1250Z-080303T1900Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO LINCOLN
NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE
UNION WEBSTER
TXC005-015-037-039-041-051-063-067-071-073-089-149-157-167-183-
185-199-201-203-225-241-285-287-291-313-315-339-343-347-351-365-
373-387-401-403-405-407-419-423-449-455-457-459-471-473-477-481-
499-031900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0090.080303T1250Z-080303T1900Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA AUSTIN BOWIE
BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON
CAMP CASS CHAMBERS
CHEROKEE COLORADO FAYETTE
FORT BEND GALVESTON GREGG
GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS
HARRISON HOUSTON JASPER
LAVACA LEE LIBERTY
MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES NEWTON
PANOLA POLK RED RIVER
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SAN JACINTO SHELBY SMITH
TITUS TRINITY TYLER
UPSHUR WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON WOOD
GMZ335-031900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0090.080303T1250Z-080303T1900Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...LCH...EWX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 90 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX CW 031250Z - 031900Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40WNW ELD/EL DORADO AR/ - 70WSW HOU/HOUSTON TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /31E TXK - 30N PSX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 33439198 29259494 29259776 33439494
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 90 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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Day 1 outlook 1300z

SPC AC 031304
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 AM CST MON MAR 03 2008
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...SE
AR AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM E TX INTO PARTS OF TN...KY AND GA...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. LONG-TERM SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGEST THAT ERN NM UPR LOW HAS NEARLY REACHED IT'S SRN-MOST
LATITUDE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO N CNTRL TX LATE TODAY
...BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS WRN/NRN AR TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH MOVES FROM MN/WRN ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC.
AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN TROUGH...NOW EXTENDING
FROM LWR MI TO AR...SHOULD MOVE E TO A NRN NEW ENGLAND/WV/MIDDLE TN
LINE 12Z TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT SRN PLNS COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE SURGING S/SE ACROSS TX. A LOW EVOLVING INVOF RESULTING
INFLECTION POINT NEAR THE ARKLATEX SHOULD SLOWLY DEEPEN IN RESPONSE
TO EJECTION OF NM/TX TROUGH. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE BNA AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...E TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST REGION...
QLCS ALONG CNTRL/E TX COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO SVR
THROUGH THE DAY AS LINE CONTINUES GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS THE SABINE
RIVER INTO WRN LA BY EARLY AFTN. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELD
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AS NM/TX UPR LOW CONTINUES
EWD...STORM STRENGTH WILL BE MITIGATED BY CONTINUING PRESENCE OF EML
CAP AND LOW STRATUS. NEVERTHELESS...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
BROKEN SEGMENTS OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE SVR THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN AND...ESPECIALLY...
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LA E AND NE
INTO SE AR...MS...AL...WRN/MIDDLE TN AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS 100 KT MID LVL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH TX UPR LOW
FINALLY REDEVELOPS ON E SIDE OF EJECTING UPR SYSTEM. SUBSTANTIAL
STRENGTHENING OF DEEP WIND FIELD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
LONG...HOOKED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 SRH AOA 400 M2/S2. MERIDIONAL UPR
FLOW WILL KEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES RELATIVELY WEAK. BUT
DESTABLIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
/DEWPOINTS AOA 60 F N TO THE TN BORDER BY 06Z TUESDAY/ SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG QLCS. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WILL COULD YIELD HAVE THE THIS REGIME...FAVORABLE
FOR
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1st TOR
TORNADO WARNING
TXC037-343-387-031445-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0003.080303T1347Z-080303T1445Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
747 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW BOSTON...
NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN RED RIVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 845 AM CST
* AT 742 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DE KALB...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOUNT
PLEASANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DE KALB BY 815 AM CST...
NEW BOSTON BY 835 AM CST...
TXC037-343-387-031445-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0003.080303T1347Z-080303T1445Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
747 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW BOSTON...
NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN RED RIVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 845 AM CST
* AT 742 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DE KALB...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOUNT
PLEASANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DE KALB BY 815 AM CST...
NEW BOSTON BY 835 AM CST...
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Re: Tornado outbreak likely - March 2-4
RUC sounding for Houston at 10 am still shows pronounced warm nose at 700 mb, so discrete cells less likely, but look at Natchez WRF sounding forecast for 6 pm. Possibly scariest looking sounding ever.
Except for that warm nose keeping individual cells from (probably) forming, HOU sounding would support tornadoes and supercells.

Note the EHI is almost 5 for Natchez...

Except for that warm nose keeping individual cells from (probably) forming, HOU sounding would support tornadoes and supercells.
Note the EHI is almost 5 for Natchez...
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
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Re: Tornado outbreak likely - March 2-4
Ed Mahmoud wrote:RUC sounding for Houston at 10 am still shows pronounced warm nose at 700 mb, so discrete cells less likely, but look at Natchez WRF sounding forecast for 6 pm. Possibly scariest looking sounding ever.
Except for that warm nose keeping individual cells from (probably) forming, HOU sounding would support tornadoes and supercells.
Note the EHI is almost 5 for Natchez...
The SPC might want to go High Risk with those numbers...
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Re: No comment
Bunkertor wrote:Lake Charles
That warm nose at 700 mb probably saves Houston from discrete supercells ahead of the front. A few hours of sun might overcome it, but we have low clouds and sprinkles beneath the cap.
Marginally severe wind gusts and small hail along the front, but not a major event. Unlike Eastern Louisiana, SE Arkansas, SW Tennessee and Mississippi, maybe reaching Alabama and Florida P'handle later.
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Re: Tornado outbreak likely - March 2-4
Ed Mahmoud wrote:RUC sounding for Houston at 10 am still shows pronounced warm nose at 700 mb, so discrete cells less likely, but look at Natchez WRF sounding forecast for 6 pm. Possibly scariest looking sounding ever.
Note the EHI is almost 5 for Natchez...
El, could you explain the Natchez setup ? I´m not that experienced in reading soundings.
You mean that warm temps will produce skyrocketing tops ?
Last edited by Bunkertor on Mon Mar 03, 2008 9:52 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: No comment
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Bunkertor wrote:Lake Charles
That warm nose at 700 mb probably saves Houston from discrete supercells ahead of the front. A few hours of sun might overcome it, but we have low clouds and sprinkles beneath the cap.
Marginally severe wind gusts and small hail along the front, but not a major event. Unlike Eastern Louisiana, SE Arkansas, SW Tennessee and Mississippi, maybe reaching Alabama and Florida P'handle later.
That explains why Watch 90 was only a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Tornado outbreak likely - March 2-4
Might want to flash-update the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to a Tornado Watch...
TORNADO WARNING
ARC057-061-081-133-031545-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0005.080303T1439Z-080303T1545Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
839 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HEMPSTEAD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NASHVILLE...MINERAL SPRINGS...
EASTERN LITTLE RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ASHDOWN...
SOUTHEASTERN SEVIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
* UNTIL 945 AM CST
* AT 836 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ASHDOWN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TOLLETTE BY 910 AM CST...
MINERAL SPRINGS BY 915 AM CST...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASHVILLE BY 925 AM CST...
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WASHINGTON BY 930 AM CST...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLEVINS BY 945 AM CST...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.
LAT...LON 3418 9379 3404 9379 3399 9363 3397 9351
3389 9344 3384 9346 3359 9412 3381 9421
3421 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 1439Z 240DEG 21KT 3372 9407
$$
11
TORNADO WARNING
ARC057-061-081-133-031545-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0005.080303T1439Z-080303T1545Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
839 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HEMPSTEAD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NASHVILLE...MINERAL SPRINGS...
EASTERN LITTLE RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ASHDOWN...
SOUTHEASTERN SEVIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
* UNTIL 945 AM CST
* AT 836 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ASHDOWN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TOLLETTE BY 910 AM CST...
MINERAL SPRINGS BY 915 AM CST...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASHVILLE BY 925 AM CST...
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WASHINGTON BY 930 AM CST...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLEVINS BY 945 AM CST...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.
LAT...LON 3418 9379 3404 9379 3399 9363 3397 9351
3389 9344 3384 9346 3359 9412 3381 9421
3421 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 1439Z 240DEG 21KT 3372 9407
$$
11
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- MississippiHurricane
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Re: Tornado outbreak likely - March 2-4
FYI Mike Sidell is IN Jackson MS. This is the first time i can remember a weather channel met in jackson. I might go by and see later today as he is only a mile from where i work at.
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