TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the 6z GFS decided to do a flip-flop and now shows very little precipitation around here late next week. If this is the case, then any hope for mixing will go out the door..regardless of what the upper level temperatures are like. Now we will just have to wait and see if this becomes a new trend or is only a one-run deviation.

[PineyWoods]

Well the Fort Worth AFD is getting our hopes up here this AM.

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
520 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

.PREV DISCUSSION...
432 AM CST.
IT WILL BE BUSY FOR NEXT 36-48 HOURS WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTH
TEXAS TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FEATURE. SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE
ALREADY BEEN IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE..AND WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ZONES. THUS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
DIG SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND THEN
MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING /MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON/ FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES...WITH SOME 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THAT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF NOW ALL TRY TO
GIVE THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
FURTHER COOLER OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW AREA SHOULD
EXPAND. HAVE MENTIONED A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
A JACKSBORO...MCKINNEY...SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MIX LINE COULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WILL PLAY IT
CONSERVATIVELY. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING BY
MIDNIGHT...HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES NEAR
THE RED RIVER."

Would be nice to see a few flakes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS doesn't see it, but WRF would have a winter weather event tomorrow afternoon in DFW!
Strong storms in the morning, a change to snow ~3 pm (just in time for PM commute) and maybe 2 to 3 tenths of precip after the change. Of course, today's fairly warm weather, and snow in the afternoon in March when the sun angle is on its way towards Spring time values (and could do some damage even through clouds), isn't a recipe for accumulation on dark surfaces like roads, but maybe 2 or 3 inches on grassy surfaces?

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS doesn't see it, but WRF would have a winter weather event tomorrow afternoon in DFW!
Strong storms in the morning, a change to snow ~3 pm (just in time for PM commute) and maybe 2 to 3 tenths of precip after the change. Of course, today's fairly warm weather, and snow in the afternoon in March when the sun angle is on its way towards Spring time values (and could do some damage even through clouds), isn't a recipe for accumulation on dark surfaces like roads, but maybe 2 or 3 inches on grassy surfaces?

It looks like the nws is using the wrf if thats the case, because tomorrow night it is forecast that we may see some light accumulations on grass and elevated areas...hard to believe that while its in the 70's with severe thunderstorms today, it could be snowing tomorrow afternoon/night

[TrekkerCC]

GFS doesn't see it, but WRF would have a winter weather event tomorrow afternoon in DFW!
Strong storms in the morning, a change to snow ~3 pm (just in time for PM commute) and maybe 2 to 3 tenths of precip after the change. Of course, today's fairly warm weather, and snow in the afternoon in March when the sun angle is on its way towards Spring time values (and could do some damage even through clouds), isn't a recipe for accumulation on dark surfaces like roads, but maybe 2 or 3 inches on grassy surfaces?

It looks like the nws is using the wrf if thats the case, because tomorrow night it is forecast that we may see some light accumulations on grass and elevated areas...hard to believe that while its in the 70's with severe thunderstorms today, it could be snowing tomorrow afternoon/night

Not exactly, let me quote you the relevant FWS discussion:

LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS...BUT AS THE COLUMN COOLS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THE NAM LOOKS WAY TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL...BUT THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

The NAM might be too far south with the Upper Level Low, as the NWS noted. The 12z run also was showing some areas getting 2" of snow (including sections of North Texas). If the NAM run does verify, we might see some 1" to 2" amounts on grassy areas, but it probably going to be less if the Upper Level Low tracks north of us. I believe the operational NAM (at least the 12z run) is faster with the upper-low passage (afternoon) than the experimental NAM/GFS is (they seem to be suggesting a Monday overnight passage). Anything snow that I can see would be a gift, since we haven't had many major chances for winter weather in North Central Texas or Southeast Texas this winter.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WHOOOOOOOOOOO-HOOOOOOOOOOO!


Ok, Ok, its probably completeyl wrong, but 0Z WRF has a crippling snowstorm hitting DFW tomorrow.


Ok, I live in HOU, but Mom, 2 sisters, brother in law who I drink beer with when I'm up there, and niece and nephew live there.

[cheezyWXguy]

wow...that would be awesome...and would keep my area in the mid 30's all day tuesday...i just doubt it because of all the disappointments weve had...ill just wait and see

[serenata09]

Any chance of the snow drifting a little further south, or will the low pull out too quickly?

[PineyWoods]

Nice line of storms moved through about an hour ago. Cooled down from 69° to 50°. The forcasters here are still calling for a mix of snow and rain for this evening. Would be nice to see some snow flakes before Winter ends this year.

[gboudx]

WHOOOOOOOOOOO-HOOOOOOOOOOO!


Ok, Ok, its probably completeyl wrong, but 0Z WRF has a crippling snowstorm hitting DFW tomorrow.


Ok, I live in HOU, but Mom, 2 sisters, brother in law who I drink beer with when I'm up there, and niece and nephew live there.

Oh my. I'm going buy a snow shovel just in case.

[gboudx]

Snow Advisory for the DFW area just posted.

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1045 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

...A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

.AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO AID IN SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. LOCATIONS ALONG THE RED RIVER MAY
SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND WHILE LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 20 MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.

TXZ093>095-103>107-117>120-123-040000-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SN.Y.0001.080304T0000Z-080304T0600Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PARKER-
TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-RAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...EMORY...
POINT...EAST TAWAKONI
1045 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD AND MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
MID AND LOWER 30S BY THIS EVENING AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON GRASSY SURFACES
AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES MAY OCCUR
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WHOOOOOOOOOOO-HOOOOOOOOOOO!


Ok, Ok, its probably completeyl wrong, but 0Z WRF has a crippling snowstorm hitting DFW tomorrow.


Ok, I live in HOU, but Mom, 2 sisters, brother in law who I drink beer with when I'm up there, and niece and nephew live there.

Oh my. I'm going buy a snow shovel just in case.

12Z WRF would require a Winter Storm Watch.

Change to snow around 6 pm, four or six tenths after

[gboudx]

12Z WRF would require a Winter Storm Watch.

Change to snow around 6 pm, four or six tenths after

That will be during my commute home. Driving while it's snowing is kind of mesmerizing. DFW NWS is sending up a sounding to get a better feel for the atmosphere. I'm guessing that if a WSW is issued, it will be based on what the sounding indicates later this afternoon.

BTW, I know it hasn't snowed yet, but kudos for being all over this since late last week.

[Portastorm]

Oh, this figures ... this TOTALLY figures. Here I am in D.C. right now and its 65 degrees and sunny, while DFW faces a possible snow threat maybe even down to Waco.



Well my Dallas friends, I hope your luck is better than mine. Here's to some nice snow for DFW!

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
333 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE BASE...PUSHING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS BETWEEN HERE AND MIDLAND/LUBBOCK HAVE BEEN
REPORTING SNOW FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SNOW IS NOW BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN TO 34. ECHO RETURNS ON RADAR ARE STARTING TO INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.

19Z SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT STILL
FAIRLY DRY ABOVE 800 MB. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH
TEXAS WILL SATURATE AND COOL COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 32 DEGREES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. NEW MODEL DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL NOW TRACK FARTHER SOUTH...JUST SOUTH OF I-20.
THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH IN THE
SNOW ADVISORY. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE START AND END TIMES AFTER
MORE CONSIDERATION...FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
AM STILL EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH
2-3 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF I-20.

A FEW OTHER CONSIDERATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN KEPT IN CHECK IN THE
BACK OF MY MIND IS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THEM NOW. THIS MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING...BUT TEMPERATURES OVERALL HAVE
CONTINUED TO FALL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS
THAT AS PRECIPITATION FALLS...THIS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING...WHICH IS WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE LAST
FORECASTED WINTER WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...HAVE SEEN ENOUGH
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND WITH SNOW ALREADY BEING REPORTED
IN THE WEST...AM CONFIDENT TO CONTINUE WITH THE SNOW ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. ONE LAST CONSIDERATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A THIN
LAYER OF ICE TO FORM ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TONIGHT IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY WARM OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT ELEVATED SURFACES HAVE BEEN SUBJECTED TO
HARSH NORTHERLY WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW. WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ON THE GROUND AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIP...FREEZING
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY OCCUR. A POSITIVE
FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35...IS THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS MAY SEE MORE IMPACTS ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN THE SNOW ADVISORY.

[ColdFusion]

Looks like the precip will get here, but the temp where I am (very north dallas) is still hovering around 40, in fact it has gone up a degree in the last hour. Definitely will prevent any rush hour problems. There will have to be a quick drop in temps before the rain moves out, chance for snow seems low to me.

[TxWxFrisco]

34.1 degrees and dropping here in Frisco. (just east and a tad north of ColdFusions location) Sleeting and snowing lightly started at around 5:30...

If we get enough to look at I will take pics and post them...

I'm so jaded when it comes to snow in N. Texas... I will honestly be surprised if it amounts to anything... Something always inhibits the setup...

We will see...

[ColdFusion]

Some sleet/ice pellets here, but still mostly liquid type @ 6:45pm. Think we are right around 37 degrees.

[TxWxFrisco]

33.0 and temps are dropping fast and all snow now here... My glass top table on the back porch is just about covered in snow...

Sno has really picked up... still rather small flakes but lots of them...

[KatDaddy]

Enjoy that snow me. You have more on the way SW of Fort Worth. I will never forget our Christmas Eve snowstorm here in Galveston County.