Tornado outbreak possible - March 2-4

[CrazyC83]

It seems that upper-level support is lacking at this point due to cloud cover (particularly in western areas). At least until the clearing becomes larger, it may preclude a major outbreak.

[wbug1]

It looks like that mass of precipitation north of Texas is weakening potential for severe storms in the south. Front loading scattered weak showers and ts are in Lousiana and will weaken potential for severe weather along the cold front in that area. The line of thunderstorms currently east of Shreveport looks like it has the most potential for immediate future severe weather.

Looks like Georgia and Alabama may see organized and widespread severe weather if that front loading zone clears up. Hopefully it doesn't and these areas get the rain they need without severe WX.

[Weatherfreak14]

Im going to be doing my first offical chase tommrow in the SE SC area around the area of SAV to CHS. Its going to be a quite intresteing evening tommrow for me.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It seems that upper-level support is lacking at this point due to cloud cover (particularly in western areas). At least until the clearing becomes larger, it may preclude a major outbreak.

Oh ye of little faith.

I think the cap is about to break near ESF

Look at visible loop...

[CrazyC83]

It seems that upper-level support is lacking at this point due to cloud cover (particularly in western areas). At least until the clearing becomes larger, it may preclude a major outbreak.

Oh ye of little faith.

I think the cap is about to break near ESF

Look at visible loop...

I see a few breaks in the clouds, but it seems the big activity will be farther east if it develops - and that is not until evening/overnight. But at this time of year, it doesn't take much to light the fuse...

[wbug1]

The area from Natchiloches to Crowley, LA bears watching but the line east of Shreveport is clearly the most active now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

CINH basically gone in Eastern Louisiana from SPC's RUC mesoanalysis:

[CrazyC83]

CINH basically gone in Eastern Louisiana from SPC's RUC mesoanalysis:

All that needs to happen now is the cells to move into that area. The squall line seems to have broken down in that area as well...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Relevant snippet from NWS LCH AFD update. I know how to find 0Z and 12Z soundings, anyone know web link for 18Z special balloon releases?

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED PUBLIC ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO INCLUDE
NEW TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 91 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
6 PM. GOOD LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE WITH VWP SHOWING SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 60 KNOTS AT 5K FEET. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MOST BELOW THE CAP...WHICH WAS SEEN
ON THE 03/12Z KLCH UPPER AIR SOUNDING.

AS FRONT IN EAST TEXAS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CAP SHOULD WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALSO ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WHICH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA...AND WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR
LATER ON.
WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES...A FEW
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

KLCH WILL BE DOING A SPECIAL UPPER AIR RELEASE AT 18Z.

[PTrackerLA]

Things are really starting to pop north of here, wouldn't be surprised to see some warnings within the next hour. Typically in these situations, the worst storms occur north as they are usually just developing as they pass through Lafayette. Hopefully things don't get too bad here and we just receive some soaking rains.

[wbug1]

The thunderstorm line is stalling. Barely any movement east now.

000
WGUS54 KLZK 031823
FFWLZK
ARC009-071-083-089-101-105-115-127-129-141-149-032315-
/O.NEW.KLZK.FF.W.0005.080303T1820Z-080303T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1220 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
POPE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
YELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SEARCY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHWESTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
JOHNSON COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
LOGAN COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 1213 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED
TO INDICATE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE ON TOP OF UPWARDS OF 4
INCHES THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA.
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3615 9244 3570 9245 3546 9279 3546 9284
3479 9330 3477 9415 3525 9389 3539 9372
3572 9365 3578 9358 3578 9353 3615 9338
3614 9330 3629 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 180DEG 0KT 3574 9302

$$

56






000
WGUS54 KLZK 031811
FFWLZK
ARC029-045-051-085-105-115-119-125-145-040000-
/O.NEW.KLZK.FF.W.0004.080303T1807Z-080304T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CONWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN GARLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHWESTERN LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT NOON CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

&&

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3460 9334 3512 9301 3511 9298 3516 9294
3518 9295 3516 9297 3544 9282 3535 9237
3535 9194 3453 9210
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 180DEG 0KT 3533 9277

$$

56






000
WGUS54 KMEG 031530
FFWMEG
ARC021-031-055-075-093-111-121-MOC069-155-032130-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.W.0014.080303T1530Z-080303T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
930 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST MONDAY

* AT 930 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FORECASTING VERY HEAVY
RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LEPANTO...
BOLTON...WARDELL...STEELE...SENATH...MALDEN...KENNETT...
HORNERSVILLE...HOLCOMB...HAYTI HEIGHTS...HAYTI...GLENNONVILLE...
DENTON...DEERING...COOTER...CLARKTON...CARUTHERSVILLE...CARDWELL...
CAMPBELL...ARBYRD...WEINER...WALNUT RIDGE...WALCOTT...TRUMANN...
THREE WAY...SUCCESS...STRAWBERRY...ST. FRANCIS...REYNO...RECTOR...
RAVENDEN SPRINGS...RAVENDEN...PORTIA...POLLARD...POCAHONTAS...
PIGGOTT...PEACH ORCHARD...PARAGOULD...OSCEOLA...OAK GROVE
HEIGHTS...O`KEAN...MONETTE...MINTURN...MCDOUGAL...MAYNARD...
MARMADUKE...MARIE...MANILA...LYNN...LUXORA...LEACHVILLE...LAKE
CITY...LAFE...KNOBEL...KEISER...JONESBORO...IMBODEN...HOXIE...
HICKORIA...GREENWAY...GREENFIELD...GOSNELL...FONTAINE...EVENING
STAR...EGYPT...DELL...DELAPLAINE...DATTO...DALTON...CORNING...
COLLEGE CITY...CASH...CARAWAY...BURDETTE...BROOKLAND...BONO...
BLYTHEVILLE...BLACK ROCK...BLACK OAK...BIGGERS...BEECH GROVE...
BAY...ATTICA...ANNIEVILLE AND ALICIA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MEMPHIS.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3639 8996 3641 8960 3626 8956 3625 8971
3617 8959 3599 8973 3589 8964 3592 8973
3573 8996 3565 8984 3554 9004 3544 8999
3544 9105 3587 9106 3590 9136 3632 9127
3648 9141 3650 9023 3662 9016 3662 8997
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 180DEG 0KT 3561 9068

$$






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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team Disclaimer
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[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the threat area:

Alabama
Anniston - Partly cloudy, 75 (50)
Birmingham - Mostly cloudy, 73 (51)
Dothan - Partly cloudy, 77 (53)
Gadsden - Partly cloudy, 73 (50)
Huntsville - Partly cloudy, 75 (50)
Mobile - Partly cloudy, 70 (61)
Montgomery - Partly cloudy, 76 (53)
Tuscaloosa - A few clouds, 78 (53)

Arkansas
El Dorado - Thunderstorm, 64 (61)
Hot Springs - Rain, 56 (52)
Jonesboro - Light rain, 55 (55)
Little Rock - Heavy rain, 55 (54)
Monticello - Mostly cloudy, 68 (59)
Pine Bluff - Light rain, 65 (59)
Russellville - Rain, 45 (40)
Texarkana - Heavy rain, 50 (48)

Florida
Panama City - Partly cloudy, 76 (54)
Pensacola - Mostly cloudy, 71 (62)

Louisiana
Alexandria - Light rainshower, 72 (65)
Baton Rouge - Partly cloudy, 80 (61)
Boothville - Partly cloudy, 75 (68)
Lafayette - Mostly cloudy, 76 (64)
Lake Charles - Light rainshower, 71 (65)
Monroe - Partly cloudy, 75 (60)
New Iberia - Mostly cloudy, 76 (64)
New Orleans - Partly cloudy, 79 (68)
Shreveport - Thunderstorm, 54 (52)
Tallulah - Mostly cloudy, 75 (60)

Mississippi
Columbus - Partly cloudy, 72 (55)
Greenville - Mostly cloudy, 70 (59)
Gulfport - Mostly cloudy, 70 (64)
Hattiesburg - Mostly cloudy, 75 (63)
Jackson - Partly cloudy, 76 (61)
Meridian - Partly cloudy, 77 (57)
Natchez - Mostly cloudy, 77 (63)
Tupelo - Mostly cloudy, 67 (53)
Vicksburg - Mostly cloudy, 75 (60)

Tennessee
Dyersburg - Overcast, 59 (54)
Jackson - Mostly cloudy, 63 (55)
Memphis - Overcast, 66 (57)
Nashville - Partly cloudy, 73 (50)
Paris - Mostly cloudy, 59 (52)

Texas
Beaumont - Partly cloudy, 75 (66)
College Station - Thunderstorm, 46 (43)
Galveston - Haze, 71 (66)
Houston Hobby - Light rain, 57 (54)
Houston Intercontinental - Light rain, 55 (52)
Jacksonville - Light rain, 50 (50)
Longview - Light rain, 54 (50)
Lufkin - Light rain, 54 (52)

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CST MON MAR 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SE AR AND WRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91...

VALID 031925Z - 032100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91
CONTINUES.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 91 GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD
ACROSS ERN LA INTO WRN MS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO THREAT
ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED CELLS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 1
TO 2 HOURS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING 1003 MB SFC LOW IN SRN AR WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS NW LA INTO SE TX. SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE INCREASING EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND MID TO UPPER 60S F ARE
PRESENT AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 20 IN NRN LA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG THE MOIST
AXIS IN CNTRL LA AND THIS MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOIST AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO MS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL EAST OF WW 91. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EVIDENT ON THE JACKSON MS WSR-88D VWP
SUGGESTS A FEW TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AHEAD OF THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 03/03/2008


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

30399124 30309222 31119325 31929309 33319212 33999132
34199082 33969005 33268940 32318965 31449035

[wbug1]

*Amateur analysis only.*

The entire system is moving northeast from south LA to the great lakes. Large potential for minor to significant flooding from north central LA to the western end of lake Erie. Also potential for heavy snowfall near the great lakes.

Unlikely significant severe TS will occur now in MDT area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

*Amateur analysis only.*

The entire system is moving northeast from south LA to the great lakes. Large potential for minor to significant flooding from north central LA to the western end of lake Erie.

Unlikely significant severe TS now in MDT area.

I'm not so sure. Check radar loop. Storms on actual cold front in far eastern Texas and Western Louisiana appear to be intensifying, and storms are starting to break cap along and East of I-49 corridor.

[wbug1]

All storms are moving NE/NNE now in the main precip area.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

[Squarethecircle]

Wrong. Storms further south on the storm line appear to be moving north but are in fact not.

[wbug1]

What?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[PTrackerLA]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

This is probably the start of some supercells over south LA. Look out further north!

[CrazyC83]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST MON MAR 03 2008

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MS..PORTIONS SWRN AND
EXTREME W-CENTRAL AL...ERN LA...EXTREME SERN AR...EXTREME WRN
PANHANDLE OF FL....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM EXTREME SE TX TO
MID TN THEN SWD ACROSS NRN/ERN AL TO WRN FL PANHANDLE....

...SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE DEEPENING OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS W TX. THIS CYCLONE SHOULD PIVOT EWD
ACROSS N TX AND ARKLATEX REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC LOW
-- ANALYZED AT 19Z INVOF ELD -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEEPENING AS
IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD WRN TN. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING ALREADY
IS INTENSIFYING PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...AND SHOULD RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING OF NEAR-SFC WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUTLOOK AREA.

...MS DELTA REGION TO TN VALLEY AND WRN FL PANHANDLE...
REF WW 91 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM SVR
THREATS W OF MS RIVER AND OVER WRN MS.

RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SVR POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO
SHEAR PROFILES AND AT LEAST MRGL INSTABILITY. HAIL POTENTIAL IS
WEAKER BECAUSE OF LACK OF THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT.

AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN ISALLOBARIC
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN MORE VIGOROUS NWD MOISTURE
ADVECTION/TRANSPORT ACROSS GULF COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. BOW/LEWP MESOCIRCULATIONS
ARE PROBABLE WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/TORNADO RISK. AHEAD OF
FRONT...CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUPPORT A COUPLE OF
HIGH-RES/EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FCSTS THAT EVOLVE PREFRONTAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT -- NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL LA -- INTO PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND OVER MS/AL THIS EVENING. UNTIL MORE PURELY LINEAR
STRUCTURE EVOLVES WITH THAT ACTIVITY...ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE
TORNADOES...A FEW POSSIBLY STG...AMIDST VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES THAT HAVE BEEN SAMPLED WELL BY LCH/POE VWP DATA AND 18Z
RAOBS. THERMODYNAMICALLY...OBSERVED AND MODIFIED 17/18Z RAOBS FROM
SHV AND LCH RESPECTIVELY INDICATE EFFECTIVE PARCELS HAVE BECOME SFC
BASED AT LEAST AS FAR N AS AROUND I-20 PRIOR TO FROPA. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH REMAINDER DAYLIGHT HOURS
INTO MS. AFTER DARK...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY THETAE ADVECTION TO KEEP PARCELS ROOTED AT/NEAR
SFC OVER MDT RISK AREA AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY FARTHER E INTO
SRN/CENTRAL AL.

SVR THREAT WILL BECOME MORE CONDITIONAL/MRGL WITH INLAND/NWD
EXTENT...LARGELY BECAUSE OF TWO FACTORS...
1. MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS ERN AR...NRN MS AND WRN
TN...LEADING TO LESS INSOLATION AND SFC HEATING IN SUPPORT OF
FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION...AND
2. LESS TIME FOR GULF RETURN FLOW PRIOR TO FROPA...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ANTICYCLONIC...LOW-THETAE TRAJECTORIES EVIDENT
ACROSS TN/KY.

STILL...OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS OR QLCS-TYPE TORNADIC SPINUP
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER NRN MS/AL AND WRN-MID TN PORTION OF
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK...AND LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NRN/ERN AL AND
MID-ERN TN. BECAUSE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES ABOVE SFC...ONLY VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE OVER THESE REGIONS YIELD
PRESENCE OF EITHER NO SFC-BASED BUOYANCY OR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SVR WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 03/03/2008

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