TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[gboudx]

Rockwall got a rock. It snowed, but no accumulation. On my drive in to work, it looks like Wylie and Plano got 1-2" though.

[TxWxFrisco]

Well we ended up with about 2 to 2-1/2" here in Northern Frisco... The snow was very wet and heavy so we probably had major compaction...

Very pretty and the kids had a blast playing in the snow until 10:00 last night...

I remember the Valentines day storm a couple of years ago... we had six inches here at my house and the radar for that storm was awsome! That storm was actually wrapped up pretty tight and moved rather slowly over Frisco and dumped HUGE flakes for hours...

[Johnny]

Please keep me in the loop on the next storm system. I almost left yesterday afternoon to get into the snow but didn't think it was going to amount to much.....wrong!! lol I plan on chasing the next one if it amounts to anything. Here are some pictures that were sent to me from a buddy of mine up around Van Alstyne. Very beautiful.

[jasons2k]

Wow, thanks for those Johnny!

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS shows a close call, Thursday evening, on a cold rain or an inch or two of snow...


The 12Z Canadian doesn't lool too different.


Maybe one of those situations, where maybe I-20 is a dividing line between an inch or two of slush on grassy surfaces and just a cold rain or mix.


Bears watching as North Texas' never ending winter continues on.


I grow more concerned that Winter 2007-2008 may be a snowless one in Houston...

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, it is almost two weeks away, but 12Z GFS hinting at a White St. Patrick's Day for Dallas!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Please keep me in the loop on the next storm system. I almost left yesterday afternoon to get into the snow but didn't think it was going to amount to much.....wrong!! lol I plan on chasing the next one if it amounts to anything. Here are some pictures that were sent to me from a buddy of mine up around Van Alstyne. Very beautiful.

18Z WRF continues to keep Dallas on the fine edge, between a cold and miserable rain, and more winter delights!

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB thinks this next system could drop 3" of snow as far south as Lake Travis, TX (near Austin) and he said he believes the 3" swath will stretch all the way to Birmingham, AL on the south side to Little rock, AR on the north side! If he is right, then this could be a very interesting late week time period for the entire gulf coast! 3" near Austin in the month of March would be a very crazy event.

UPDATE (4:45pm) - - I just watched his BIG DOG video for today and he said that he also thinks an inch of snow could fall in San Antonio and that snow could be "seen in the air" in Houston Thursday night into Friday morning! Wow! If he is right, then I will be extremely happy!

[HarlequinBoy]

I must say, those are very pretty pictures.

[serenata09]

JB thinks this next system could drop 3" of snow as far south as Lake Travis, TX (near Austin) and he said he believes the 3" swath will stretch all the way to Birmingham, AL on the south side to Little rock, AR on the north side! If he is right, then this could be a very interesting late week time period for the entire gulf coast! 3" near Austin in the month of March would be a very crazy event.

UPDATE (4:45pm) - - I just watched his BIG DOG video for today and he said that he also thinks an inch of snow could fall in San Antonio and that snow could be "seen in the air" in Houston Thursday night into Friday morning! Wow! If he is right, then I will be extremely happy!

Hey EWG, when is this next storm anticipated to roll on in?[quote="Ed

[cheezyWXguy]

JB thinks this next system could drop 3" of snow as far south as Lake Travis, TX (near Austin) and he said he believes the 3" swath will stretch all the way to Birmingham, AL on the south side to Little rock, AR on the north side! If he is right, then this could be a very interesting late week time period for the entire gulf coast! 3" near Austin in the month of March would be a very crazy event.

UPDATE (4:45pm) - - I just watched his BIG DOG video for today and he said that he also thinks an inch of snow could fall in San Antonio and that snow could be "seen in the air" in Houston Thursday night into Friday morning! Wow! If he is right, then I will be extremely happy!

I would love to see JB right about all this snow...but i dont think so. Where does he get all this information about these big snowstorms? The forecast discussion in DFW suggests the potential for snow in northern sections of the DFW, but not several inches. I suppose another event like last night is possible for the area, but not much more than that. It would be pretty nice though if that were to occur.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would love to see JB right about all this snow...but i dont think so. Where does he get all this information about these big snowstorms? The forecast discussion in DFW suggests the potential for snow in northern sections of the DFW, but not several inches. I suppose another event like last night is possible for the area, but not much more than that. It would be pretty nice though if that were to occur.

Yeah, it does seem a little too good to be true. However, I am willing to give JB the benefit of the doubt for now. I might as well keep my last bit of hope alive for as long as I can! This will probably be my last chance to see snowflakes while living in Houston, and I have always wondered what this area would look like with them fluttering through the air. Sure, I have seen plenty of snow in other places, and will see plenty more when I move to Oklahoma, but it just will never be the same in those areas where the white stuff is much more common. There is just something extra special about a snowfall in a rare location (such as Houston) that makes it so much more exciting to witness.

Hey EWG, when is this next storm anticipated to roll on in?

The best potential for snowfall is late in the day on Thursday and early in the day on Friday.

[srainhoutx]

Good view from WV Imagery of current setup….

CONUS:

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... e&itype=wv

NE Pacific:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

Keep on eye on the ULL. That's the key

[cheezyWXguy]

well we in DFW can be looking for another event like monday night, except possibly more and over a longer duration. Temperatures are expected to fall quicker and a changeover to snow is expected earlier. 1 inch amounts are already expected from the DFW metroplex NE into Paris, however these appear conservative when reading the DFW AFD. The forecaster talks about a concern over lack of moisture availability, despite the good qpf amounts shown on some of the models. However, if more moisture is available like the computer models are showing, the DFW area could see 1-3 inches maybe, as opposed to 0-1 inches.

DFW AFD:
We are concerned about the depth of available moisture. Models
seem to Blossom quite a deep layer of moisture across the area
late tonight and Thursday...despite low level flow only returning to
the south for a brief time late Wednesday/early Thursday. 00z Corpus
Christi sounding illustrated the dry atmosphere to our south well.


Regardless...some precipitation will fall across North Texas on Thursday and
Thursday night. Due to the aforementioned moisture concerns...
will be conservative with quantitative precipitation forecast and snow amounts...and will remain
quite lower with values than those from the models and sref.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Snow now in the forecast as far south as Huntsville...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=147

...This is the first time this winter that a snow forecast has gotten this far south into Texas!

[gboudx]

well we in DFW can be looking for another event like monday night, except possibly more and over a longer duration. Temperatures are expected to fall quicker and a changeover to snow is expected earlier. 1 inch amounts are already expected from the DFW metroplex NE into Paris, however these appear conservative when reading the DFW AFD. The forecaster talks about a concern over lack of moisture availability, despite the good qpf amounts shown on some of the models. However, if more moisture is available like the computer models are showing, the DFW area could see 1-3 inches maybe, as opposed to 0-1 inches.

Maybe us poor souls out in Rockwall can get in on the action this time.

[jasons2k]

Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner. Definitely a close call and if it materializes, it will be extremely rare for March. Given the very cold air in Canada this winter and the La Nina pattern, it's not suprising to see some late season blasts of cold air charging down. Unfortunately, my landscaper hacked the dead tops off of my banana trees last weekend, leaving the bare stalks completely vulnerable to a freeze. Looks like I may have to break out the freeze blankets one last time this winter.

From Jeff:

Significant Winter Storm to impact TX starting Thursday.

Potential for snow and rain/snow mix across portions of SE TX Friday morning.

Discussion:

Next powerful upper level storm system moving through the Rockies this morning with very cold arctic air mass on the move in Canada and heading south. Current source region temps. are in the -25 to -35 range and this air mass is about to cross the US border and plunge southward down the plains. Arctic boundary will move through TX on Thursday as upper trough hangs back over NW Mexico and induces a winter time overrunning pattern across the state. Surface cold air advection will drive temps. downward on Thursday as surface boundary moves off the coast…while 850mb boundary stalls inland focusing rainfall. Combined isentropic ascent over the shallow cold dome along with approaching lift from upper trough will produce widespread rains Thursday afternoon and into the overnight.

Thursday night – Friday morning:

Critical weather period as air column cools with passage of deep upper trough and P-type becomes problematic. Tough call on this aspect this morning as models show precip. ending as air column supports snow. WRF, ETA-21z, NAM, and GFS were all heavily looked at for the period from Thursday evening through noon Friday. All show critical thickness of 546 dm or less spreading across SE TX during this period with 0C 850mb lines also moving into the area…looks good for snow. One must also check the profiles for any warm layers that would melt falling snow. Dallas sounding is frozen from the surface up after midnight Thursday…while Lake Charles is well above freezing. Cut-off rain/snow line will lie somewhere across our northern counties Friday morning with snow possible as far S as San Antonio and then lifting NE across our NW and N counties Friday morning. With surface temps. expected to fall to freezing along and N of Hempstead to Livingston line Friday AM some minor accumulations of snow is possible. Really a tough call as we are right on the threshold and I am not sure there will be enough moisture left when the air column is ready to support snow. Close watch needed over the next 24 hours.

Temps:

Given the arctic origins of the impending air mass highs on Friday will hold in the 40’s all areas and may not reach the 40’s N of I-10 and E of I-45. Strong cold air advection will be maintained all areas under cloudy skies. It will feel very cold. Skies clear out Friday evening and freezing temps. should be felt across a large part of SE TX. At this time it appears lows of 29-32 are most likely which should prevent a hard freeze and killing damage to sensitive budding plants already in bloom.

Significant forecast changes will be possible over the next 24 hours as this approaching winter storm moves into the state.

[pwrdog]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CST WED MAR 5 2008


A VERY COLD AIR MASS TRAVELING IN FROM THE WEST GOING INTO FRIDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF INTO FRIDAY HAS KEPT RAIN
CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRI 18Z. TO MAKE MATTERS MORE COMPLICATED...HAVE
OPTED TO ADD SNOW FLURRIES TO THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY
09 THRU 18Z. THICKNESS ANALYSIS OF ALL LAYERS ALL MEET THE
THRESHOLDS FOR A LIGHT SNOW MIX FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE SNOW FROM 09Z-18Z
FRIDAY AS A SUB 700-MB SATURATED LAYER EXISTS BELOW THE 0 LINE.
WET-BULBING EFFECTS...WITH THE COLDEST AIR COMING IN POST-12Z
FRI...AND VIRTUALLY NO LL WARM LAYERS...ALL SUGGEST THAT WE WILL
SEE A FROZEN MIX UP ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ATTM NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION BUT IT BEARS WATCH/MENTION.

The snow line in the area grid forecast go as far south as livingston......

[Ed Mahmoud]

The old ETA model (the one replaced by the WRF as the NAM) shows DFW on screaming edge of rain/snow line, with possibly decent snow accumulation, or maybe just a lot of cold rain.

The close-up regional 12Z WRF/NAM isn't up on PSU site, but the 12Z WRF also appears to show an tight-rope between what could be a major snowstorm, a minor slush storm, or just rain.

[Johnny]

Alright, I plan on chasing some snow this go around!! Where do y'all think I should set up?????