ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ptarmigan]

Not exactly. There might be an increase in ACE, but it doesn't necessarily mean more storms. 1996, 2000, and 2001 were La Nina years that didn't have a huge number of storms (though they did have some intense ones). 1995 had a lot of storms, but the vast majority of them were recurves.

I might be wrong about this, but La Nina years seem to favor the development of long-lived, recurving storms more than neutral or El Nino years. We might have a season with a similar number of storms as 2007, but with a much higher ACE due to the storms being longer-lived.

More storms do form in La Nina years. Also, the ACE is higher. In addition, more major hurricanes form. 1995 was entering into a La Nina phase, but it was neutral for the most part. 1999 had less storms form than in 1998 and 2007, but it had more major hurricanes though.

ENSO is not the only factor involved. You have NAO, PNA, AO, and North Pacific Index.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center Febuary Update



Moderate to Strong La Niña will prevail thru late Spring.Some ENSO models suggest it may continue thru most of the summer.

[Hurricaneman]

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 1.2008.gif

It seems as though La Nina is strengthening and not yet stopped

[canegrl04]

If there is low shear this season,we're in for a whole lot of trouble

[KWT]

Does look like the la nina is strong nw, I think the real question is will the strong la nina last long enough to get a tri-monthly strong reading...

Also I think chances are looking decent for a multi-year la nina event, reminds me alot of 98-00.

[cycloneye]

BoM ENSO 2/13/08 Update



La Nina at least thru the end of spring is what the Aussies say in their latest ENSO update.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 2/18/08 Update



They say in this latest update that La Nina may be present beyond late Spring,maybe thru most of the Summer.

[Cyclone1]

Wow, strong La Nina.

Should make for a crazy year.

[KWT]

From the looks of things this Feb will probably see one of the strongest la nina recordings we've seen which shows how late this stong la nina has developed...chance sof a multi year la nina event do seem to be increasing and at the very least looks a good chance of a la nina summer.

[cycloneye]

Interesting to say the least about warming at el nino 1-2 zone off Southamerica.The question is if this warming is temporary or is a start of a trend towards Neutral conditions.There will be two updates this week that will answer the question from BoM and CPC,so we will see what they will say.

[salescall]

I know this is not hurricane related, but the Climate Prediction Center said that "below-average precipitation is expected across the South, particularly in the southeastern states" due to the La Nina. We just experienced one of the worst droughts in many years during an El Nino period. I would have thought the change would have meant a change in precip too, not a continuation of what we have been experiencing.

Thanks in advance for letting me get a little off topic.

[cycloneye]

Summary: A mature La Niña continues in the Pacific

The La Niña event in the Pacific basin is mature, and continues to influence the climate of eastern Australia.

While the far eastern Pacific Ocean has warmed, cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to extend across the western to central equatorial Pacific. When combined with enhanced Trade Winds, suppressed cloudiness in the central Pacific and a strongly positive (+21) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), it is clear that the atmosphere and ocean are firmly reinforcing each other, sustaining the La Niña event. The SOI reached a record value for February of +21.3, the highest for any month since +22.4 in November 2000.


BoM 3/5/08 Update



The Australians continue to forecast La Nina to continue thru the end of Spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

[Frank2]

Salescall, I think folks need to understand that a drought usually means absolutely no rainfall at all (similar to what parts of Texas had back in the 1960's) - the Southeast has had fairly consistent rainfalls since December, however, it's man's waste of water that is contributing to the low lake levels, not necessarily the below average rainfall rates - which are now close to normal.

If the U.S. would mandate not watering one golf course for a year, we'd all be surprised at just how much water could be saved - personally, I think a brown "green" would be a small price to pay...

[hial2]

Salescall, I think folks need to understand that a drought usually means absolutely no rainfall at all (similar to what parts of Texas had back in the 1960's) - the Southeast has had fairly consistent rainfalls since December, however, it's man's waste of water that is contributing to the low lake levels, not necessarily the below average rainfall rates - which are now close to normal.

If the U.S. would mandate not watering one golf course for a year, we'd all be surprised at just how much water could be saved - personally, I think a brown "green" would be a small price to pay...

Golf "greens" are brown where I live..The "greening" of golf courses is local..and you're right..golf courses are the last thing that need water during a drought, but, how are the CEOs in South Fla going to putt on a brown green??..have a heart!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I know this is not hurricane related, but the Climate Prediction Center said that "below-average precipitation is expected across the South, particularly in the southeastern states" due to the La Nina. We just experienced one of the worst droughts in many years during an El Nino period. I would have thought the change would have meant a change in precip too, not a continuation of what we have been experiencing.

Thanks in advance for letting me get a little off topic.

Well, following the 49-50 analog that has worked fairly well for Bastardi, Florida should get multiple tropical cyclone hits (if 1950 more or less repeats), on both South Florida and the Panhandle, and those Panhandle storms could do good things for Lake Lanier and vicinity.


Note 1950 says Gulf from about New Orleans to Brownsville has a quiet summer.

Just in case you had vacation plans. And you trust a single year analog.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Salescall, I think folks need to understand that a drought usually means absolutely no rainfall at all (similar to what parts of Texas had back in the 1960's) - the Southeast has had fairly consistent rainfalls since December, however, it's man's waste of water that is contributing to the low lake levels, not necessarily the below average rainfall rates - which are now close to normal.

If the U.S. would mandate not watering one golf course for a year, we'd all be surprised at just how much water could be saved - personally, I think a brown "green" would be a small price to pay...

Around Monahans, TX, out in the Chihuahuan desert, they just spread a little oil on the sand to make "greens".

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just had an idea. Cost lots of money, maybe it could be funded with government bonds that could be paid by ends users. I'll use the example of Texas, but should work in Georgia.


Build a series of nuclear power plants, perhaps based on the proven safe A4W/A1G 550 Mw reactors that power the Nimitz class carriers. Use these plants to run flash evaporator desalinization plants. Turn Gulf of Mexico water from near Matagorda Bay into nearly pure water, run that water through massive ion exchanger beds to remove any remaining salts, and the flash evaporation method should remove almost all the dissolved oxygen, keeping the water of relatively low corrosiveness. Return the enhanced salt brine via pipeline sufficiently deep into the Gulf to minimize impacts on marine fauna. Now, we are talking about a 1000 km distance from the Texas coast to the arid regions of West Texas, with an elevation gain of about 1000 meters. So, a series of pumping stations would also need to be built. Spare electrical generation capacity from the nuke plants could power the lift stations, to deliver thousands of gallons per day of clean water to the area of West Texas from around Midland to North of Lubbock.


Now, oil production, despite extensive drilling, waterflooding, and tertiary carbon dioxide flooding is starting to drop in the Permian Basin and West Texas, and almost every year more water is drawn from the Ogallalla sands than returned through rain. In 50 or 100 years, West Texas will have little oil left, and little water suitable for irrigation. And West of 100ºW, as a rule, crops will generally fail without irrigation. All that would be left would be huge cattle ranches, with very low density of cattle per acre, as the naturally growing scrub won't support many cattle.


Just an idea, and not a cheap one.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, following the 49-50 analog that has worked fairly well for Bastardi, Florida should get multiple tropical cyclone hits (if 1950 more or less repeats), on both South Florida and the Panhandle, and those Panhandle storms could do good things for Lake Lanier and vicinity.


Note 1950 says Gulf from about New Orleans to Brownsville has a quiet summer.

Just in case you had vacation plans. And you trust a single year analog.

I think you're misunderstanding Bastardi's usage of the analog. JB is utilizing the 1949-1950 analog because it was a strong multi-year La Nina. He is comparing the current Nina with that event. He also believes 2008 could see similar numbers and ratio of hurricanes/intense hurricanes vs. total tropical storms. It is not based on landfalls or steering.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, following the 49-50 analog that has worked fairly well for Bastardi, Florida should get multiple tropical cyclone hits (if 1950 more or less repeats), on both South Florida and the Panhandle, and those Panhandle storms could do good things for Lake Lanier and vicinity.


Note 1950 says Gulf from about New Orleans to Brownsville has a quiet summer.

Just in case you had vacation plans. And you trust a single year analog.

I think you're misunderstanding Bastardi's usage of the analog. JB is utilizing the 1949-1950 analog because it was a strong multi-year La Nina. He is comparing the current Nina with that event. He also believes 2008 could see similar numbers and ratio of hurricanes/intense hurricanes vs. total tropical storms. It is not based on landfalls or steering.

I haven't seen any hurricane discussion for 2008 yet from Bastardi. Maybe he has released it to the big money clients in the Gulf of Mexico energy biz, but from what I've seen his guidance, while ballpark, and probably better than straight multiyear climatology, isn't super accurate. I think Florida was supposed to get clocked in 2007, if Bastardi had been right. But big picture, he was close.


Anyway, just saying, no reason to assume, if 49-50 analog has worked fairly well for winter, it wouldn't keep working into Spring and Summer. Of course, Bastardi is mentioning other analogs, like 1971, and this year isn't a carbon copy of 1950, but if a Cat 3 hurricane makes direct landfall on Miami, while Texan's enjoy a beautiful summer, I may come back in October and do a superior dance.

[cycloneye]

Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions during February 2008 continued to reflect a strong La Niña. Equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C below average across large portions of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and the corresponding weekly values of the Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 indices remained between -1.6°C and -2.1°C during the month (Fig. 2). In contrast, SSTs in the far eastern equatorial Pacific were above average during February 2008, in association with a warming trend that began in mid-December. The upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the oceans between 180° - 100°W) remained below average across the equatorial Pacific during February (Fig. 3), with the largest temperature anomalies averaging -2°C to -6°C at thermocline depth (Fig. 4). Consistent with these oceanic conditions, stronger-than-average low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds persisted across the central equatorial Pacific, convection remained suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, and enhanced convection covered the far western Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar to those accompanying the last strong La Niña episode in 1998-2000.

The most recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region continue to indicate a moderate-to-strong La Niña through March 2008, and a weaker La Niña through April-May-June 2008 (Fig. 5). Thereafter, there is considerable spread in the forecasts, with approximately one-half indicating that La Niña could continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall. Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent observed trends support the likely continuation of La Niña through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008.

Expected La Niña impacts during March-May 2008 include a continuation of above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific. The above average SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific may result in increased rainfall over Ecuador and northern Peru, similar to the evolution during the 1998-2000 La Niña episode. Compared to the Northern Hemisphere winter, La Niña impacts over the United States in spring are typically less pronounced. The primary springtime signal for the contiguous United States is an increased probability of below-average precipitation across the South, particularly in the Southeast.

Climate Prediction Center March Outlook