![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/sh232008.gif)
WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.0S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.4S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.1S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.0S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 83.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
TC 23S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE STORM. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM
HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
UNDER IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL
AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//