3/7-9/2008 Snowstorm: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

A powerful storm is likely to bring heavy snow across parts of Ontario, Quebec, and northern Maine. Significant snow is also possible across Upstate New York and northern Vermont. Right now, it appears that the snow will come in two shots--an initial shot tomorrow and tomorrow night and then perhaps a more substantial shot later Saturday into Sunday. Some daily snowfall records are likely to be eclipsed on Saturday and Sunday.

My initial estimates are as follows for the 3/7-9 timeframe:
Burlington: 5"-10"
Caribou: 8"-16"
Montreal: 12"-20" (30.5 cm-50.8 cm)
Ottawa: 12"-20" (30.5 cm-50.8 cm)
Syracuse: 6"-12"
Toronto: 5"-10" (12.7 cm-25.4 cm)

Select daily snowfall records for March 8 and 9 are as follows:
Burlington:
March 8: 7.3", 1956
March 9: 11.5", 1916

Caribou:
March 8: 8.4", 1956
March 9: 11.1", 1961

Montreal:
March 8: 8.0" (20.3 cm), 1956
March 9: 7.2" (18.3 cm), 1957

Ottawa:
March 8: 5.5" (14.0 cm), 2003
March 9: 4.8" (12.2 cm), 1986

Syracuse:
March 8: 5.5", 1957
March 9: 6.8", 2001

Toronto:
March 8: 7.0" (17.8 cm), 1980
March 9: 4.1" (10.4 cm), 1942

[tropicana]

Once again, we are going to get buried up here. We already just had a big snowstorm Tuesday night- into Wednesday with heavy snow, thunder and lightning as well. Though a rare phenomenon, it has happened at least twice in the last month with snowstorms in my neighborhood.

They are calling for snow to start flying this afternoon, and some media outlets are reporting that Toronto may see true classic "blizzard-like" conditions here on Saturday afternoon. Im soooooooooo excited, I have to work but I have access to windows where I work and I will be witnessing the drama unfold.
This winter is surely one for the record books in terms of all the snow.

-justin-

[donsutherland1]

After reviewing the 12z guidance, I have made a few adjustments to reflect a track somewhat farther to the west of what I had initially been thinking. Ohio into Ontario and southern Quebec should be in line for a major snowfall. Ottawa could be in the proverbial bullseye of the heaviest snow. There, a potentially historic snowfall is possible.

Final Estimates:
Burlington: 2"-4"
Caribou: 4"-8"
Cincinnati: 8"-16"
Cleveland: 8"-16"
Columbus: 8"-16"
Detroit: 3"-6"
Montreal: 12"-20" (30.5 cm-50.8 cm)
Ottawa: 14"-24" (35.6 cm-61.0 cm)
Pittsburgh: 3"-6"
Quebec City: 12"-20" (30.5 cm-50.8 cm)
Rochester: 8"-16"
Syracuse: 4"-8"
Toronto: 7"-14" (17.8 cm-35.6 cm)

[pawxguy]

I have a friend who grew up in Montreal who told me that they are on the verge of eclipsing a seasonal snowfall record from 1970 I believe. Please inform if that statement is incorrect.

[tolakram]

We've got 4 inches on the ground in Northern Kentucky (just south of Cincinnati) and expecting a lot more tonight. Incredible March storm and if we get what's expected tonight we'll shatter most of our records.

[ohiostorm]

I live just 20 miles north of Pittsburgh and we have an inch here and news is reporting that the city has seen all rain so far. I left the airport around 145p this afternoon and it was pouring mixing in with sleet. Closer I got to home more snow was mixing in. Then it turned to all snow shortly after I got home. Snowed for about a half hour then back to rain again. Has since stopped completely. Waiting to see what tonight and tomorrow brings.

[tropicana]

update from Toronto:
its been snowing since just around 230pm this afternoon, has picked up in intensity in the past few hours, outside is glazed in snow and ice and visibility is poor in my area just north of the city itself. Current temp is minus 3C 27F so its all sticking. Another 30 hours of this to go... i cannot imagine the site it will be on sunday morning when the sun comes up ( and yes the sun will come up sunday morning).

it will be a sight to behold.
Thanks don for your ever so insightful data and info.

The seasonal record is 207.4cm from 1938-1939. So far this season, Toronto has seen 178cm of snow, this particualr snowstorm will get us really really close to the all time record. Plus remember it snows here into mid-April...so we still have 5 weeks left to keep adding to the record.

-justin-

[Miss Mary]

Currently, we have 6 inches on the ground here on the east side of downtown Cincinnati. I'm on the border between Hamilton County (where Cincinnati sits) and Clermont County to the east. We are under a Blizzard Warning. When all is said and done, we're expecting 11 to 14 inches from this storm.

Not much is open (schools released early, some didn't even open today, banks, malls, doctors' offices all closed early). Fast food restaurants are open I heard and our infamous Skyline Chili restaurants are doing a brisk business. Also an annual event called Bockfest is going strong downtown (an entertainment area with many bars, celebrating Cincinnati's German beer brewery history). Each time we see these beer drinkers downing another on the news, we have to laugh.

For the most part though, most people are just staying home tonight.

Round 2 of the snow is expected soon.

[Stephanie]

It's amazing the snow that the Mid West and even Canada has received this year. Miss Mary, I remember not too long ago where you would say that you didn't get much snow at all.

We've been on the "wrong side" of the storms the whole season. I'll tell you though, if we were getting snow with this storm and tomorrow's instead of rain, we'd be digging out from under at least a foot of snow.

There's always next year. I know March is a tricky month but I think that Spring is starting to wake up in these parts.

[Miss Mary]

Steph - I know! Here in the Ohio Valley, we haven't had a decent, measurable snowstorm like this one, in years. We've had our share of quick Alberta Clipper storms this year, 3 inches here or there, with ice and we've had snowdays, but each time, it was usually the ice that was the worst.

This time - all snow. I'm guessing I've had at least 12 inches here. We shoveled the snow from our deck and it's blocking our backdoor again. I also shoveled the snow off the table and hot tub. I have to do it again, I can see at least 6 more.

Our daughter worked almost 2 hours last shoveling the driveway. We have to do it again!

[tolakram]

It's finally winding down here, had 9 inches this morning now I'm guessing near 10 inches in the Cincinnati area.

[tropicana]

Update from Toronto:
9pm Sat

im speechless hahaha 30 hours later, its STILL snowing, snow came down quite heavy for a period this morning, but was heaviest from about 3pm this afternoon to near dusk, the entire place is a winter wonderland. I was at work and got to leave early (330pm as opposed to 530pm) not too bad eh, haha then i knew what i had to do and wanted to do all day, GO OUTSIDE, so i put on all my winter gear, and outside i went in the blinding snowstorm, just amazed by what i was seeing, Toronto so far has seen close to 20cm of snow since it all began, the wind is quite strong as well.
Amazingly, every business place seemed opened, the big malls etc, It takes something absolute major to close any mall here, i even went by and just couldnt believe the amount of people in there. The hockey game taking place downtown tonite was sold out (as most of Maple Leaf games are) so these people braved some inclement weather and treacherous road conditions to be there.

it is COLD also, the temp has dropped to 18F (minus 8C) not including the wind chill.
as bad as it is here, its worse in Ottawa and eastern Ontario...and also quite bad on the Niagara Peninsula as well.
-justin-

[tropicana]

we survived! YAY the sun is shining, sky is blue, looks picture perfect (if you dont look down and actually open the door) haha What a storm that was. Id never forget it.

[RL3AO]

Columbus, Ohio almost got as much snow in this storm as Minneapolis has gotten all season.

[Stephanie]

We had AT LEAST 2 inches of rain here and there was a reported wind gust of 60 mph here in Glassboro - I'm assuming from Rowan University. I believe it!

We had some big downpours but no severe weather. Lost a few more shingles off of our roof.

[Andy_L]

well Don....you verified as far as Ottawa is concerned. We received offically 52 cm's of snow for the storm duration. The record annual snowfall here, set in the early 70's is 14.58 FEET...we are now only 13 inches from breaking that record.

as sick of winter as i am at this point.... bring it onnnnnnn....whats another 13 inches...might as well go for the record!!!

[Miss Mary]

Daytime temps have been above freezing since the blizzard of 08 and half the snow is gone now. I can see grass in many areas! Kinda sad really....many elem. school aged kids built snow forts and snowmen and they're all collapsing....I know this sounds like a Disney movie but why couldn't this blizzard have come in January? Or even February? Then the snow would have stayed around....LOL And my dog's paws wouldn't be a muddy mess each time she comes inside. Anyway, the melt is on now.

Heard some areas near us had thunder snow. We didn't though. I've only witnessed thunder snow once. Pretty cool to see. You blink and another inch of snow has fallen, just about.

What a crazy Winter this has been. January was nothing really. February was cold, with clippers and ice storms. March started out warm then we got our biggest winter storm of the season!

And our snowblower finally died. May it RIP. We inherited it from my dad, he bought it after the 1978 Blizzard. It sure got a work out back then....

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

Overall, my forecast worked out quite well for this memorable snowstorm. Unfortunately, Environment Canada has not released figures for Quebec City. Hence, I am not able to verify that figure.

Later today, probably this afternoon, I'll post some estimates for Ottawa. I believe the upcoming storm should give a nice boost to Ottawa's prospects for setting a seasonal snowfall record. There is a distinct possibility that Ottawa could pick up 15 cm or more snow, in addition to the rain/freezing rain that is possible there. The 6z GFS was actually a mainly snow/sleet scenario.

From 3/6/2008 10:08 pm:
Burlington: 5"-10"; Actual: 2.9"; Error: 2.1"
Caribou: 8"-16"; Actual: 7.1"; Error: 0.9"
Montreal: 12"-20" (30.5 cm-50.8 cm); Actual: 12.4" (31.4 cm); Within range
Ottawa: 12"-20" (30.5 cm-50.8 cm); Actual: 20.5" (52.0 cm); Error: 0.5" (1.4 cm)
Syracuse: 6"-12"; Actual: 5.8"; Error: 0.2"
Toronto: 5"-10" (12.7 cm-25.4 cm); Actual: 6.5" (16.6 cm); Within range

From 3/7/2008 1:29 pm:
Burlington: 2"-4"; Actual: 2.9"; Within range
Caribou: 4"-8"; Actual: 7.1"; Within range
Cincinnati: 8"-16"; Actual: 10.7"; Within range
Cleveland: 8"-16"; Actual: 14.8"; Within range
Columbus: 8"-16"; Actual: 20.5"; Error: 4.5"
Detroit: 3"-6"; Actual: 1.4"; Error: 1.6"
Montreal: 12"-20" (30.5 cm-50.8 cm); Actual: 12.4" (31.4 cm); Within range
Ottawa: 14"-24" (35.6 cm-61.0 cm); Actual: 20.5" (52.0 cm); Within range
Pittsburgh: 3"-6"; Actual: 3.7"; Within range
Quebec City: 12"-20" (30.5 cm-50.8 cm); NOT AVAILABLE
Rochester: 8"-16"; Actual: 15.7"; Within range
Syracuse: 4"-8"; Actual: 5.8"; Within range
Toronto: 7"-14" (17.8 cm-35.6 cm); Actual: 6.5" (16.6 cm); Error: 0.5" (1.2 cm)