South Indian Ocean: Filling Depression ex.Kamba (TC 23S)
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Re: South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Kamba (TC 23S)
It's very impressive.
Do you know why NRL aren't updating
Do you know why NRL aren't updating
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Re: South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Kamba (TC 23S)
ZCZC 836
WTIO30 FMEE 100600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 0600 UTC :
16.8S / 78.8E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 18.9S/77.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 21.1S/76.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 23.7S/76.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.1S/76.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 27.0S/74.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 28.6S/73.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
LAST MICROWAVE DATA SSMI 10/0118Z AND 10/0232Z SHOW A BANDING EYE
WICH IS
STARTING TO BE VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL IMAGERY (EIR AND VISIBLE).
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN
EDGE
OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND TAU
24,
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND LOWER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.=
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 100600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 0600 UTC :
16.8S / 78.8E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 18.9S/77.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 21.1S/76.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 23.7S/76.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.1S/76.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 27.0S/74.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 28.6S/73.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
LAST MICROWAVE DATA SSMI 10/0118Z AND 10/0232Z SHOW A BANDING EYE
WICH IS
STARTING TO BE VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL IMAGERY (EIR AND VISIBLE).
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN
EDGE
OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND TAU
24,
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND LOWER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.=
NNNN
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- Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Kamba (TC 23S)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2008 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 17:10:35 S Lon : 79:03:42 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 979.7mb/ 63.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 4.2 6.4
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -34.1C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2008 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 17:10:35 S Lon : 79:03:42 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 979.7mb/ 63.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 4.2 6.4
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -34.1C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Kamba (TC 23S)
10/0830 UTC 17.4S 78.8E T6.0/6.0 KAMBA -- South Indian Ocean
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
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- Tropical Low
- Posts: 45
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 9:10 am
- Location: Mauritius
100 kts Intense TC forecasted. 90 kts now.
319
WTIO30 FMEE 101200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/13/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1200 UTC :
18.2S / 78.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 19.7S/78.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6S/76.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 28.5S/75.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 30.4S/73.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5+.
VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS, WITH A
25NM DIAMETER EYE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG
AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.
319
WTIO30 FMEE 101200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/13/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1200 UTC :
18.2S / 78.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 19.7S/78.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6S/76.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 28.5S/75.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 30.4S/73.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5+.
VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS, WITH A
25NM DIAMETER EYE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG
AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.
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- Tropical Low
- Posts: 45
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 9:10 am
- Location: Mauritius
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 45
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 9:10 am
- Location: Mauritius
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Kamba (TC 23S)
ZCZC 666
WTIO30 FMEE 101200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/13/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1200 UTC :
18.2S / 78.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 19.7S/78.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6S/76.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 28.5S/75.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 30.4S/73.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5+.
VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS,
WITH A
25NM DIAMETER EYE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF A
STRONG
AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.=
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 101200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/13/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1200 UTC :
18.2S / 78.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 19.7S/78.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6S/76.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 28.5S/75.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 30.4S/73.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5+.
VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS,
WITH A
25NM DIAMETER EYE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF A
STRONG
AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.=
NNNN
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