SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1021 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Mar 16, 2008 5:54 pm

Both FWD and HGX discusions suggesting instability will be reduced by lack of mid-level dry air, and this will be more of a flooding threat.


The Dallas sounding isn't super-bad tornado wise, but with that combination of shear and CAPE, at least isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
Image

But with this much shear/helicity Tuesday morning around HOU, any discrete cell has an excellent chance of being tornadic, in my amateur opinion.

Image



12Z GFS shows light wintry precip in North Texas next weekend,but I'll hold off on that until the severe wx/flood threat has passed.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1022 Postby southerngale » Sun Mar 16, 2008 9:25 pm

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
453 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-170500-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
453 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008

...COASTAL FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...

AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY...THEN PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

GUSTY EAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH A LONG SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES UP TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...WITH TIDES UP TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL A
THREAT ON TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...WINDS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WILL ALSO INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH LIKELY ON TUESDAY.

FINALLY...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

SHAMBURGER
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#1023 Postby JenBayles » Sun Mar 16, 2008 9:35 pm

NO MORE WIND!! Every leaf, pollen ball and speck of dirt in the neighborhood has found its way into my pool, and I'm NOT very happy about it. :-) I've been raking debris out of the pool all day, and still had to backwash because the oak pollen balls clogged up the filter. Dave wasn't too happy to have to take the pump apart and dig crud out of the impeller either. :roll:

Honestly, wind makes me nervous. The longer and harder the wind blows, the more my instinct tells me we're in for a doozie of a storm. Add my "rheumatiz" symptoms to that, and it appears we're gonna have a biggun' come Tuesday. I don't need computer models to tell me the same thing my joints are saying. :D
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1024 Postby jasons2k » Mon Mar 17, 2008 8:44 am

Latest from Jeff Lindner. Unfortunately Jen, you get a whole paragraph on just the wind. I feel like I'm back in Lubbock...

Powerful storm system to impact TX today and Tuesday.

Strong winds today and tonight

Severe weather likely on Tuesday.

Discussion:


Deep upper trough still digging SE this morning over Arizona and N Mexico with downstream pressure falls noted over SW and W TX where surface low pressure will be developing. Pressure gradient at the surface is already tight and will tighten even more today as pressures fall to our west and low level jet cranks to an impressive 50-65kts at 925-850 mb…see wind section below. Capping noted this morning should keep rain chances limited to just weak showers under the cap for most of today.

Tuesday:

Powerful upper storm system moves across TX. Surface low will form in the Del Rio region and track ENE/NE toward the ARKLATX with tremendous wind energy. Low level jet will howl tonight into Tuesday with 60-70kts noted at 850mb with a 120kt jet streak rounding the SE side of the upper low over SC and SE TX on Tuesday. W TX dry line will fire off storms this evening and as surface low gathers and tacks eastward tonight lines of intense thunderstorms will develop from SC TX to NE TX. Slug of deep tropical moisture characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60’s and PWS approaching 1.6-1.8 inches will pour into SE TX this afternoon. PWS are forecast to rise to near record levels of 1.8-2.0 in on Tuesday which is over + 2 SD for mid March.

Severe:

Limiting factor appears to be instability given abundance of low clouds ahead of front. Forecast CAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg will be favorable for severe storms…however high levels of wind shear may be too much for only modest updrafts being produced by low instability. Warm sector also appears capped off with forcing and convection noted in models near and behind the surface cold front. This reduces the tornado threat as discrete supercells ahead of the main line appear low at this time. SPC has the entire region outlooked on Tuesday. Should instability be greater than currently forecast an upgrade to a moderate risk and higher tornado threat would be likely. Main threats will be wind damage as it will not take much to get surface winds of 60-80mph in the stronger storms.

Hydro:


Given near record setting PWS forecasted and slow nature of this storm system some heavy rainfall totals appear likely on Tuesday. Threat for training lines of thunderstorms as upper flow becomes parallel to surface boundaries during the day. With high PWS air mass expect high hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches. Basin wide totals of 2-3 inches appear possible and a few locations could see 4-6 inches especially where cell training occurs. For now no flash flood watch is needed…but we shall see how things unfold on Tuesday.

Wind:

Strong surface winds today through early Tuesday as strong low level jet roars just above the surface. Already seeing gusts of 35mph at Angleton, 33mph at Sugar Land, and 31mph at Port Lavaca this morning. With breaks in the overcast developing…expect to see some of the wind energy above the surface mix down today. Wind advisory is in effect for all areas and locations from Matagorda Bay southward will be close to high wind warning criteria this afternoon. Will go with gust to 40mph all locations and 45-50mph down the coast from Rockport southward where past experience on partly cloudy days with 65kt jet at 925mb does support these surface speeds. May also see some fairly strong winds Wednesday AM as backside of upper system crosses the area with NAM showing 40-50kts at 925mb before noon on Wed. Low level wind shear needed at all terminals today and especially tonight when mixing ends and surface layer decouples. Low cloud deck and strong winds may result in delays at the bigger airports today and Tuesday with onset of thunderstorms.

Long fetch southerly flow is producing sea level water rise along the coast along with increased wave action. Main concern has been from Galveston eastward into LA where SE winds are slightly more parallel to the coast allowing Ekman transport to the right to induce water level rise. Tide levels are currently running 2.0-2.4 feet above normal levels at Morgans Point and Clear Creek entrance. Galveston Bay storm surge operational forecast model maintains water levels around 2.0-2.5 feet above normal through Tuesday morning. Lunar influences should help push tides even higher and breaker run-up over time will also pile additional water on the beaches and into local bays. May see minor coastal flooding issues at high tides this afternoon and again Tuesday morning. We start to see problems in the bays and on the W end of Galveston at around 4.0 feet. Offshore Gulf buoys are running 5.0-7.5 feet and will rise to near 10 feet by this evening. Very dangerous boating conditions and poor swimming conditions with strong near shore rip currents as noted by 1 fatality yesterday and 4 coast guard rescues at San Luis Pass.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1025 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:40 am

SPC MCD says much of North and Central Texas will be upgraded to MODERATE RISK at 1630Z


Outside, here in Bedford, TX, loading up the minivan for the windy return trip to Northern Harris County.

About 50 to 75% cloud cover of fairly low and shallow cu/strato-cu, with bright sun shining through the breaks, and South winds probaby in excess of 25 mph.


Looks favorable to me. We shal leave while the driving is as good as can be, in a minivan in high winds. Mostly a head wind, not as good for fuel economy as a tail wind, but better for driving than a crosswind.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1026 Postby jasons2k » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:23 pm

Another update from Jeff:

Powerful storm system moving toward TX.

Per SPC update this morning Day outlook has been upgraded to our west to moderate risk including threat of strong tornadoes. Upgrade for portions of slight risk area on Tuesday is possible as meso scale interactions evolve tonight and storms begin to fire along W TX dry line. Threat appears to be increasing for more supercells with increased tornado potential given backed low level flow ahead of deepening surface cyclone over SW TX. Threat of long lived corridors of damaging winds also appears to be increasing.

Wind advisory verifying at all locations currently with multiple stations gusting at or above 40mph. Gust of 41 at Bay City, 43 at Port Lavaca, and 45 at Port Arthur. Will continue to see sustained speeds of 25-30mph with gust at to slightly above 40mph through the evening. Given breaks in the overcast may see speeds bump up a little more this afternoon as vertical mixing ensues.

Per KLCH sounding cap appears to be a little too strong to allow storms to develop although we are starting to see some surface heating with low stratus breaking up some.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1027 Postby wxman22 » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:28 pm

Image

Image


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN AND SE TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
INTO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY AND ACCELERATE NEWD TUESDAY EVENING AS A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MS
VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM ECNTRL TX
EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS SERN MO...NRN AR AND EAST TX TUESDAY. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING MOVING ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AN IMPRESSIVE 90 TO 100 KT
MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ENEWD OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CREATING STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOW ECHOES. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH A LARGE MCS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL TX
EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST IN EAST TX AND ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAINS
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS A WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NWD INTO
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 15Z TO 18Z TUESDAY
ACROSS THIS HOUSTON AREA SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 400
TO 500 M2/S2 WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SE TX EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR THE
SABINE RIVER. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS WITH ACCESS TO LOCALLY GREATER INSTABILITY.
THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND NEW CELLS INITIATE
FURTHER EAST. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 7.5 C/KM SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS...BOW ECHOES AND ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS. A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS A
SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME
ENHANCED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS LA AND WRN MS. THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
ENEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ONCE THE EXTENT OF THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

..BROYLES.. 03/17/2008
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#1028 Postby jasons2k » Mon Mar 17, 2008 3:02 pm

WOWZERS :eek:
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1029 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Mar 17, 2008 4:16 pm

This is not good.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1030 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Mar 17, 2008 4:21 pm

Yep, could get real interesting around here tomorrow. Hope folks are paying attention. :wink:
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#1031 Postby JenBayles » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:06 pm

Well crap on toast. Much as I love a good storm, I'm not looking forward to this one.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1032 Postby jasons2k » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:11 pm

This is a strong system - and this is just from LLJ-induced winds mixing down:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
505 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ROBSTOWN 27.80N 97.66W
03/17/2008 NUECES TX PUBLIC

PALM TREE WAS BLOWN OVER AND DAMAGED THE FRONT HALF OF A
VAN. THE WINDSHIELD WAS SHATTERED.


SOUTH TEXAS REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

CORPUS CHRISTI CLOUDY 77 70 79 SE29G40
ROBSTOWN CLOUDY 79 68 69 SE36G47
KINGSVILLE NAS CLOUDY 80 69 69 SE25G40
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#1033 Postby JenBayles » Mon Mar 17, 2008 7:00 pm

Radar lighting up in west Texas. KaPOW!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1034 Postby m_ru » Mon Mar 17, 2008 9:07 pm

Wow. Things are looking probable for some serious weather tomorrow. I'm glad I have nothing to do!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1035 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Mar 17, 2008 9:20 pm

Impressive forecast soundings for HOU area between 7 am and 1 pm.

Image

Can't get a forecast skew-T for 10 am from the NIU site, but CAPE and deep shear (from Utah U met dept. site) look favorable for SE Texas
Image

But 1 pm still looks pretty favorable for severe storms
Image
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#1036 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:41 pm

Looks like it could get pretty nasty! :eek:

I am both happy and mad that I will not be in town for this event. I am happy because I know I will be safe, but I am also mad at the same time because I might miss out on a really good filming opportunity (daylight severe storms). Oh well I guess...

Stay safe everyone!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1037 Postby southerngale » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:36 am

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1003 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-181200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1003 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...INTENSE STORM SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG WINDS...POTENTIAL COASTAL
FLOODING...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...


AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY...AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH A LONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. TIDES UP TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...WINDS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS
RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ARE LIKELY
ON TUESDAY.


AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.


STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

SHAMBURGER
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1038 Postby serenata09 » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:53 am

The storms out on the Edwards Plateau have been training for a couple of hours now.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1039 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:41 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MID/UPPER TX COAST...NWD INTO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181222Z - 181415Z

A NEW WATCH SEEMS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 15Z.

A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH NOW
APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AS THIS CONTINUES...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. ON
THE NOSE OF THIS AIR MASS...ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION NEAR CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST TO THE WEST OF A 60-70 KT
SOUTHERLY 850 JET STREAK MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
INHIBITION. BUT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING
ACROSS THIS REGION...WELL IN ADVANCE OF UPPER IMPULSE. AND...IT
APPEARS INITIATION OF STORMS COULD OCCUR BY 15-16Z. ONCE THIS
COMMENCES...MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING THROUGH THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE...IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE...AND MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF VICTORIA/AUSTIN AND
TEMPLE THROUGH COLLEGE STATION BY MID TO LATE MORNING
.

..KERR.. 03/18/2008


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

28559681 28959746 30109774 31269789 32019750 32619651
32689570 31479505 30209481 29419496 28519635
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Spring-like pattern

#1040 Postby Jagno » Tue Mar 18, 2008 8:04 am

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
529 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-181830-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
529 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...INTENSE STORM SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG WINDS...POTENTIAL COASTAL
FLOODING...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG
WINDS...AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH A LONG SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES UP TO
2.0 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...WINDS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WILL ALSO INCREASE. 20 TO 30 MPH SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH
NUMEROUS HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
10 WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

ALL OF THE PRECEDING THREATS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND AS FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
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