

WTPS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR/201151ZMAR2008//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 163.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.8S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.5S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.8S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.8S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 163.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION. A 201429Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED
ON DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM PGTW AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEW
CALEDONIA. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH ENHANCED EASTWARD OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS WELL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG A
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH NEW
CALEDONIA BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES
WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF MID-LATITUDE
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY IN THE
LATER FORECAST TAUS AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 201151Z MAR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 201200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//
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