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WTIO30 FMEE 211219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/14/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14
2.A POSITION 2008/03/21 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 60.2E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/22 00 UTC: 16.0S/59.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/03/22 12 UTC: 16.2S/58.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/23 00 UTC: 16.2S/57.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/23 12 UTC: 16.1S/56.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/24 00 UTC: 15.7S/55.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/24 12 UTC: 15.6S/55.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE CIRCULATION IS BAD DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO A MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL
EASTERLY JET (TEJ).
SEVERAL CENTER MAY POSSIBLES, THE MENTIONNED ONE IS SUPPOSED TO BE MAIN.
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES REMAINS LOW AND THE GRADIENT IS WEAK IN THE
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. THE MSLP IS ESTIMATED AT 997 HPA, REFEERING TO
ST-BRANDON SLP 999.6 HPA AT 0900UTC.
WINDS , ACCORDING TO 0137Z QUIKSCAT DATA, ARE STILL WEAK 20/25KT NEAR THE
CENTER, REACHING VERY LOCCALY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND SHOWS NOW
A CURVED BAND PATTERN.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTING TO IMPROVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT THIS STAGE OF INTENSITY , THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS.