were are they going this year?

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kba981
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were are they going this year?

#1 Postby kba981 » Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:52 pm

So were will the hot spots be this year?
who is at higher risk?
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#2 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:04 pm

We can't predict where tropical cyclones for the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season will end up or the steering patterns. It's almost just pure guessing right now.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#3 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:29 pm

Cyclenall wrote:We can't predict where tropical cyclones for the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season will end up or the steering patterns. It's almost just pure guessing right now.



I'm guessing 3 to 4 hits on Florida, one into the Peninsula from the Atlantic, one from the Gulf, one into the Panhandle, and one into the Peninsula far enough South to spend time over water before a second landfall in the Panhandle area. Maybe Alabama.


A couple of close calls for the North Carolina outerbanks, center may stay offshore but still bring tropical storm conditions.


Louisiana, except perhaps for fringe effects from Florida P'Handle Alabama storm, and Texas totally in the clear. A system hitting the Mexican state of Tamilipaus may cause fringe effects on Padre Island in Texas, but the Houston area is sitting pretty.


I won't tell you how I arrived at my unscientific forecast.
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Re: Re:

#4 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:03 pm

I prefer pinning a map of the Tropical Atlantic on a dart board.

Florida 2 X's
Central Gulf Coast 3
North Carolina 1
A rare storm into the Northeast 1
Tropical Storm into Texas 1

While I realize these maybe the most obvious answers to the question,

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:We can't predict where tropical cyclones for the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season will end up or the steering patterns. It's almost just pure guessing right now.



I'm guessing 3 to 4 hits on Florida, one into the Peninsula from the Atlantic, one from the Gulf, one into the Panhandle, and one into the Peninsula far enough South to spend time over water before a second landfall in the Panhandle area. Maybe Alabama.


A couple of close calls for the North Carolina outerbanks, center may stay offshore but still bring tropical storm conditions.


Louisiana, except perhaps for fringe effects from Florida P'Handle Alabama storm, and Texas totally in the clear. A system hitting the Mexican state of Tamilipaus may cause fringe effects on Padre Island in Texas, but the Houston area is sitting pretty.


I won't tell you how I arrived at my unscientific forecast.
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Rainband

Re: were are they going this year?

#5 Postby Rainband » Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:37 pm

let me get my crystal ball :lol: Seriously though if we go by the 50's Florida looks to be a likely target. I am not buying that yet though.
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MiamiensisWx

Re: were are they going this year?

#6 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:50 pm

At this point, you might utilize -removed- and predict one TC hitting your home or 20 NS recurving safely out to sea...

It is really impossible to gain any sense of the overall steering before July or August, and any short-term changes can affect the path of a TC. I've really stopped looking at steering, "doom and gloom", or "Variable X implies that Location Z will be safe." It's all about basic emergency preparations. On another note, I am really tired of the "overdue" mantra. Statistically, a below average number of TC strikes for one coastal area during a given period does not imply that the probabilities will increase (or decrease) in the future. For what it's worth, despite JB's emphasis on the Northeast, most of the United States TC strikes during the past four seasons (including 2006 and 2007) have continued to be concentrated in FL and the Gulf Coast. Ernesto did affect the Carolinas, but it first entered the United States in SE FL.

Finally, JB's 1950 analog was for ENSO and total NS (not steering patterns). Those are different arenas.
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#7 Postby Cryomaniac » Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:51 pm

Strictly speaking, don't these posts need a disclaimer?

This post is the view of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise. It should not be used by anyone for any purpose.

I think Texas will be ok. I also think there may be a storm that threatens NYC, and a (different, probably) storm that threatens Ireland while marginally tropical.
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Re: were are they going this year?

#8 Postby Tampa_God » Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:52 pm

Rainband wrote:let me get my crystal ball :lol: Seriously though if we go by the 50's Florida looks to be a likely target. I am not buying that yet though.

Same here, but I have stronger feeling about a Tampa hurricane than ever before this year, even more than 2004 when we had Charley.
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#9 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:58 pm

Although there is so much emphasis on "NYC", "Tampa", et al, no one mentions the Georgia coast...

That area's last hurricane was David 1979. Very few TCs (whether TS or hurricane) have directly struck the state's coast in recent decades. If you're going to mention a "statistically" overdue area, you must mention Georgia. It seems like other areas that have been recently affected (i.e. Miami/SE FL and TX) are more "popular" on this board, which makes no sense...
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#10 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:06 pm

From yall of your opinions I better board up my house :P
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#11 Postby RL3AO » Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:14 pm

Somewhere between Columbia and Iceland.
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Re:

#12 Postby Cyclone1 » Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:54 pm

RL3AO wrote:Somewhere between Columbia and Iceland.

Come on man, how sure can you be of THAT? Honestly...

:wink:
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Re: were are they going this year?

#13 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:58 pm

I think some of them will make landfall somewhere, most likely on a coastal area or an island, and others will head out to sea without touching land.

Just an uneducated guess. 8-)
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Re:

#14 Postby Squarethecircle » Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:06 pm

Of course, one must not forget the presence of tropical cyclones in space:

Image



Seriously, I think that it's probably likely we'll have at least one good Gulf storm this year. And probably stuff will hit Florida. But I think we also might see another North Carolina storm.

In fact, I bet that tropical cyclones will form, against all odds, in all of the places they usually do. Statistically the argument is infallible.
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Re:

#15 Postby Tampa_God » Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:30 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:Although there is so much emphasis on "NYC", "Tampa", et al, no one mentions the Georgia coast...

That area's last hurricane was David 1979. Very few TCs (whether TS or hurricane) have directly struck the state's coast in recent decades. If you're going to mention a "statistically" overdue area, you must mention Georgia. It seems like other areas that have been recently affected (i.e. Miami/SE FL and TX) are more "popular" on this board, which makes no sense...

Yeah, true, but I think Georgia will be given another year for relaxing this year. Georgia Coast is pretty small and its not rare, but kinda strange to see a tropical system make a straight hit on that coast. But it's not impossible.
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Re: Re:

#16 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Mar 19, 2008 11:34 pm

Squarethecircle wrote:Of course, one must not forget the presence of tropical cyclones in space:

Image



Seriously, I think that it's probably likely we'll have at least one good Gulf storm this year. And probably stuff will hit Florida. But I think we also might see another North Carolina storm.

In fact, I bet that tropical cyclones will form, against all odds, in all of the places they usually do. Statistically the argument is infallible.


It went into space! :lol:

I think anywhere from Brownsville to Maine could be hit this season.
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Re: were are they going this year?

#17 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Mar 21, 2008 2:47 pm

What are your gut reactions? Nothing based on scientific data, but just gut feeling on how this year will go...

I'm thinking we get a few US hits, a couple being majors...
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Re: were are they going this year?

#18 Postby Blown Away » Fri Mar 21, 2008 9:39 pm

Some in the local farming community think there will be a persistent low pressure off the EC this year so I'm thinking there will be alot of recurves this season with the NC coast most vulnerable.
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Re: were are they going this year?

#19 Postby boca » Fri Mar 21, 2008 11:30 pm

I hope we just get depressions or tropical waves because our water supply is looking grim at this point. Lake O is still 4 ft below normal.
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Re: were are they going this year?

#20 Postby hial2 » Sat Mar 22, 2008 7:10 am

boca wrote:I hope we just get depressions or tropical waves because our water supply is looking grim at this point. Lake O is still 4 ft below normal.



Shhhhh!..If the SFWMD hears you they might drop Lake O another 4 feet..... :eek:
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