SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Bunkertor]

My sounding page is down. Could someone recommend another one ?

Lake Charles
http://wxcaster2.com/SKT_72240.gif

Sounding at 0Z, on the webpage about an hour later, give or take


Good resource in general for Texas area stuff

Troy Kimmel's Met Links Page

Ah, thanks ! OK, these pages are the ones i can work with.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The part of the line entering Harris County looks a little less anemic...

[KatDaddy]

This is the best little bitty squall line ever. Yes I am sarcastic to the people who say we cry wolf. They have no idea how close we came to a very serious life threatening event.

I have not read thre threads in the past hour but there was a little flack at the local Ch11 board about crying wolf again.

[Stratosphere747]

I disagree Katdaddy.

At least there should be some criticism against the SPC for issuing a PDS. We can all agree that it's one thing to have a moderate risk go bust, but for a PDS to be a total bust like this one will later lead to it losing any significance when issued.

IMO they need to look again at when they issue a PDS. It should be a upgrade into a normal tornado watch when conditions truly warrant it.

[KatDaddy]

Fair enough. The Sun was shining from the W as the squall came through. The last time I saw a squall followed by sun very rapidly is when Channelview got leveled. The atmosphere was primed. I warned everyone for a reason which I hope they understand for the next time. Everything was in place except for the CAP. I was very concerned this morning. Going back to the SPC, they knew we were on the verge of a massive tornado outbreak. Seeing the model output I would have done the same. Its better to warn the public when chances are high for a signifcant event....from a model aspect. With that being said I agree with your response. A good point not to hype the event until it starts to materialize. Like you stated normal tornado watch followed by a PDS if needed. Just like a slight, moderate, or high risk the SPC already does. Great discussion Stratosphere747. On an early side-note lets hope we are spared the 2008 hurricane season. Humberto was a surprise.

[Ptarmigan]

There is some truth that -- I think a lot of it has to do with this particular time of year ---

When there is a cap present (often due to our proximity to the Mexican highlands), we depend on heat/insolation to destabilize the atmosphere to that crucial point of 'busting the cap'. The problem with Feb/March systems here in SE Texas is warm dewpoints are advected over still cold shelf waters offshore. This results in a warm "soupy" mix of drizzle/rain for much of the day and the atmosphere just doesn't get as unstable as it should.

Points further west, where the air comes in a different trajectory and not straight off the Gulf (such as the SC Texas plains), there is sufficient sun/insolation to heat-up the atmosphere & destabilize it.

Points further east tend to not have the cap to overcome.

That often leaves us caught in the middle: gray, humid, and capped. And by the time the dynamics get here, often the system loses its punch.

As far as anything along I-10, there is nothing there, geographic or otherwise, that "splits" storms or anything like that. If you look at a hi-res rainfall distribution map of the Houston area, there are no donuts anywhere. Any one place can be hit-or-miss in a storm system. Sometimes a location may have several misses before getting dumped on, giving the impression that there is a big hole there, but in the long term, it all averages out.

Good explanation! Always made me wonder.

[Ptarmigan]

I notice on radar, there are some storms in West Texas. I wonder if it will impact us?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I notice on radar, there are some storms in West Texas. I wonder if it will impact us?

Seems like a pretty potent upper low, but it is cool here now, behind the front, whatever does follow the upper low will be elevated.


I have seen before, usually in the Tennesee Valley, severe storms marching into the South ahead of the cold front, and behind the front, at peak heating, the meager left over moisture, often dewpoints in the 40s, is enough for high based severe storms with hail.


Of course, the upper low will not be passing anywhere near peak heating.

[jasons2k]

Well, I have to admit, lump me in with those who busted, "cried wolf," eating crow, etc.

Looking at all the available data from yesterday I would have still felt the same way. We had an incredibly deep trough rolling through, dewpoints near 70F, the sun behind the dryline/front, an incredible LLJ, helicity going off the charts to our immediate SW, and then on-top-of that, the SPC went from a slight risk to a mod risk to a PDS tornado watch in 24 hours. There's not much else you can have to initiate a major outbreak. I was really surprised it busted so badly.

[southerngale]

And justifiable or not, this will likely cause complacency. I'll be honest... I doubt I'll be very alarmed the next time I see a moderate risk for this area, much less a slight risk. The most recent ones haven't amounted to much more than regular ol' thunderstorms. I'm certainly not complaining that they didn't materialize, but these weren't even really strong thunderstorms. Actually, I don't even recall hearing any thunder last night, so it was just rain. Most people expect more than just rain after such hype. You expect strong thunderstorms and pray that nothing severe comes out of it. When it busts to nothing more than a rain shower though, people start to think "yeah, right."

And yet, when the data shows it's possible, what else are they supposed to do? I'm not blaming the forecasters at all... they went by the data that was available... I'm just pointing out that to the general public, it will no doubt cause complacency.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The rain was followed by dirt. My car was a muddy mess this morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not as cold and unpleasant as originally feared, but second Easter in a row that its too cool to go to Galveston. My wife's family usually spends the day at my wife's grandparents little summer place in Jamaica Beach. 'Popo', what we call my wife's grandfather, usually breaks out the tequila and tries to get me wasted. He is so cool.


He had a cancerous kidney removed a couple of years ago, so he doesn't drink as much anymore.


The water is too cold to go in, but usually it is warm enough for shorts and t-shirts.

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like a boring spring like weather for the rest of the week... Enjoy it! Summer will be here soon enough...

[CajunMama]

I find nothing boring about spring like weather. There are so many things you can do. Even just sitting outside on the patio basking in the warm sun is delightful to me. I've got my bedding plants waiting to be planted. I can go for a walk.

[PTrackerLA]

What a spectacular Easter Sunday! I really enjoy this time of year even though it still can be pretty cool outside like this evening. Once May rolls around you can't really count on relief from the heat/humidity until October so I enjoy it while it lasts.

[southerngale]

It was a beautiful Easter! We spent a lot of time outdoors... not too hot and not too cold. It was just perfect.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Might be a little rain Saturday, per 0Z GFS, with front that stalls near/just North of SE Texas before washing out, but it looks like this weekend could be the first real sprinkler days of Spring 2007.



I was out applying Mole-Away Saturday in the backyard, which borders an open field. The armadillo(s) is/are back, and it looks like someone with a twelve gauge was walking around blasting holes in my lawn. This was after mowing, and trimming a couple of dying fronds off the palm trees. Robusta I think, although the trees seem a little different, and one could be filifera. I got 'em for $5 a pot at Wal-Mart because the sun had bleached the labels white, including the bar codes. Little pots fit easily in the back seat 6 years ago, they would need an open bed pickup now, if I ever decided to dig them up and move them.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS shows enough rain Sunday that SE Texans may be able to hold off on using the sprinkler.

We shall see.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hit 47ºF at 3 am in Houston at the big airport before bouncing back a couple of degrees. B-r-r-r-r-r.

26ºF in Tallahasee, and 34ºF in Jacksonville for morning lows, so it is even more miserable in Florida.


SE Texas should be in the low 80s by the end of the week, as winter slowly loses its icy grip on the Lone Star State.

[Johnny]

It was a beautiful easter day but just a little on the cool side. I took a couple of pics of the family and I in some bluebonnets across the street from my house.