Interesting Miami Discussion

[boca]

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM BAJA MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF TO FLORIDA CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE GFS EVEN DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT H5 SUNDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND DIGS IT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE IN OUR VICINITY. THE ECMWF SHOWED THIS SCENARIO
YESTERDAY AND NOW THE GFS HAS PICKED IT UP SO WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER
AS A POSSIBILITY ALSO.

What I find interesting is that Miami is usually less bullish on these forecasts then Tampa, Melbourne, or Key West. None of the other offices even bring it up in the extended.I hope this materializes for the mere benefit of Lake O area.

[Duddy]

Would love to see an early Tropical Storm. Hope is materializes.

[NDG]

GFS looking interesting tonight for next week, it wants to develop some sort of hybrid system, mid level circulation with a low surface reflection developing over the western Bahamas or FL straights by early next week, interesting that Euro showed something similar as well.

[brunota2003]

Someone show me where? I did not see anything worthy to note.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

Showing something around April 1-2

[NDG]

If it verifies what calls my attention the most is its tracking by the euro, kind of very unusual for the time of the year.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2008


.DISCUSSION...

SAT-TUE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HAVE INDICATED A LOW POP MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH GREATER DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH. MAY NEED TO EXPAND AREA A LITTLE IN LATER FORECASTS. ONE
FEATURE OF INTEREST EARLY NEXT WEEK (INDICATED BY BOTH THE LATEST
RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF) IS AN ANOMALOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NEAR CUBA/BAHAMAS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL CONTINUITY THROUGH LATER RUNS

[Evil Jeremy]

I really don't expect any kind of TC out of this, this should become an invest at best if the forecasts even verify. However, you should never count anything out in the tropics, even this time of year. Doesn't the NRL use a test invest around this time of year? This could be a candidate for their test invest this year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It'd have to stay near Cuba to have any chance of being sub-tropical.

[Evil Jeremy]

Any word from the famed CMC yet? It would be funny if the other models showed something forming but the CMC didn't!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Any word from the famed CMC yet? It would be funny if the other models showed something forming but the CMC didn't!

CMC looks remarkably clear of tropical and sub-tropical cyclones.

[Evil Jeremy]

Any word from the famed CMC yet? It would be funny if the other models showed something forming but the CMC didn't!

CMC looks remarkably clear of tropical and sub-tropical cyclones.

Until the CMC starts to show this possible system, it likely won't happen. Anyways, The GFS and EURO show this "event" to happen after this CMC loop ends I believe.

EDIT: After looking through that loop a few more times, I saw that in the last few frames, you can clearly see something happening over Cuba. It looks like the CMC might also support this "event", but not in the time frame current loop.

[HURAKAN]

Key West:

THE GFS SHOWS A STEADY FEED AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN STEADILY DROPPING SURFACE
PRESSURES DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK RIGHT ON OUR
DOORSTEP. THERE IS A SMALL DEGREE OF SUPPORT BY THE ECMWF FOR THIS
SCENARIO...BUT SINCE THIS REMAINS WELL OUT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WILL HANG ON TO JUST A SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST ON THIS ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... KEY&max=51

[RL3AO]

March 24: The first thread on a model developing a storm.
March 25: The first thread about a model developing a storm off the coast of Florida.

I guess it is that time of year. Of course the most surprising thing is that neither of those two threads revolved around the Canadian.

[Evil Jeremy]

06Z GFS Showing a 1012 MB pressure center in the Florida Straits in 144 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... 62_s.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS almost develops something sub-tropical looking in a week to nine days,and then scoots it off into the Westerlies.



I am not too excited.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian Global 12Z run hints at first East Pac Tropical Action of 2008...

[HURAKAN]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
957 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2008

FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING A CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLA PENINSULA AND NOW THE GFS
FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS HAS PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE. STILL THIS IS
OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND EACH MODEL RUN SHOWS THE LOW IN A
DIFFERENT LOCATION WHICH WOULD MEAN AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT WX
SCENARIO DEPENDING ON WHERE IT ENDS UP. PLAN TO INCREASE THE POPS
DUE TO THIS BUT WILL DELAY IT BY A DAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT BY 24 HOURS.

[x-y-no]

March 24: The first thread on a model developing a storm.
March 25: The first thread about a model developing a storm off the coast of Florida.

I guess it is that time of year. Of course the most surprising thing is that neither of those two threads revolved around the Canadian.

Well, the long-range GFS is not too different from the Canadian when it comes to spinning up phantom systems. The fact that the Euro is in on it too causes me to keep half an eye on it, though.

[MiamiensisWx]

It has already vanished at the low levels in the latest Euro run. Note the lack of a closed low. Regardless, it would have probably not materialized in the first place.

Any cutoff low is typically spurious or non-tropical during this time of the year. It's quite typical...

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFS sort of kind of somehwat develops a weak surface low in the Bahamas in a week.


Meanwhile, no sign of snow in Houston area, and Winter is technically already over...