2008 Severe Weather Thread

[CrazyC83]

Another significant event today it looks like...the MDT was a surprise though...

Looking at current conditions, I'd also put a 45% wind area up.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If last nights GFS is right, I see at least a MODERATE, and maybe even a HIGH in Central and North Central Texas Monday. I don't know if a HIGH has ever been issued in a SWODY for anyplace South of about Waco.


I started this last Monday, although, at the time, I thought it would start tomorrow, not Monday


But that was progged to be, and still is, one really big amplitude trough, with air cold enough aloft that some snow may fall in the Kern County vallies (sp? valleys?) in California after dark tonight.

Behold, the water vapor loop of doom.


How is that for dramatic?

[CrazyC83]

SPC has identified what could be the next threat, starting March 27:

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230852
SPC AC 230852

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
IN LOW LEVELS...SEVERAL DAYS OF MARINE MODIFICATION WILL ENSUE
ACROSS GULF...AFTER INTRUSION OF CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR MASS DAY-2.
ALOFT...LARGELY ZONAL MEAN FLOW FIELD WILL BE PERTURBED BY SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY CROSS NRN ROCKIES
DAY-4/26TH-27TH...THEN N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
DAY-5/27TH-28TH. ECMWF/UKMET ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS EVOLUTION
AND RESULTANT SFC FEATURES...WHEREAS MORE DISPARATE GFS RUNS FROM
DETERMINISTIC AND MREFS APPEAR TO BE LOWER CONFIDENCE SOLUTIONS.
UPPER PATTERN MOST PROBABLE FOR DAY-4 SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASINGLY
WELL DEFINED SFC DRYLINE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...BUT ALSO ROBUST
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH ATTENDANT CAPPING CONCERNS...AND STRONGEST
MOISTURE RETURN DISPLACED HORIZONTALLY FROM MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
LIFT. SVR BECOMES MORE PROBABLE DAY-5 SRN PLAINS...AS RICHER
MOISTURE RETURN ENCOUNTERS STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS...DRYLINE
LIFT SOURCE...AND FRONTAL INTRUSION. SVR AREA IS SUBJECT TO
CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN SHAPE/POSITION IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS GIVEN
DIFFERENCES STILL EVIDENT ACROSS BULK OF GUIDANCE PACKAGES FOR
POSITION OF MAIN BOUNDARIES.

..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2008

[RL3AO]

Seven active TORs in Missouri.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

OKC091-101-280015-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-080328T0015Z/
MUSKOGEE OK-MCINTOSH OK-
636 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND ONE MILE NORTH OF COUNCIL HILL...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH AND CENTRAL MUSKOGEE COUNTIES...

AT 635 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS
CONTINUED TO TRACK A VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR COUNCIL HILL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. A TORNADO HAS BEEN
CONFIRMED...TAKE COVER NOW!

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WAINWRIGHT...
CHECOTAH...RENTIESVILLE AND OKTAHA.

[Bunkertor]

How could that happen ?

[CrazyC83]

It was kinda surprising to see them descend to the ground, but yes there are some tornadic supercells out there. I'd kill the Severe Thunderstorm Watches and throw a Tornado Watch personally...

[CrazyC83]

Monday looks like the more ominous day now...thinking perhaps from Wisconsin all the way down to Texas...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Moderate Risk for Oklahoma, waiting for the update, just minutes away...

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 311257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FOR ERN OK...SW MO...WRN
AR...AND NE TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
CENTRAL TX NEWD TO SE IA/IL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG A RETREATING
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SRN IA BY MIDDAY...EXTREME SW WI THIS
EVENING...AND NRN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY
MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD FROM CO/NM. SURFACE ANALYSES
CONFIRM THAT THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM IL/MO/AR/LA WWD INTO OK/TX...WITH
THE ERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE LIMITED BY TRAJECTORIES EMANATING
FROM WITHIN THE ERN US SURFACE RIDGE. THESE RELATIVELY DRIER
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...ALONG WITH THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF
YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION ACROSS AR/LA/E TX AND THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS IN MO/IA AND NE OK...CAST DOUBT ON THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY FROM CENTRAL MO NEWD TO SE
IA/IL/SRN WI. MEANWHILE...SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER INSTABILITY APPEARS
LIKELY TODAY FROM CENTRAL/ERN OK SWD INTO TX ALONG THE AXIS OF 65-70
F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...ALONG WITH THE GREATER SEVERE STORM
RISK.

...OK/SW MO/AR/CENTRAL AND ERN TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
LATEST OBSERVED DATA/CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM
THREAT CORRIDOR TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND E
OF I-44 IN MO/OK/WRN AR...WITH A MORE ISOLATED THREAT E OF I-35 IN
SRN OK/TX. THE RESIDUAL PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN
UNCONTAMINATED/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN CO-LOCATED TODAY
FROM CENTRAL/ERN OK SWWD INTO CENTRAL/E TX...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. SOME LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING
IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST WRN AR INTO SW/CENTRAL MO ON THE
SRN FRINGE OF THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.

EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO CENTRAL/NE OK...AND
NE OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT IN CENTRAL OK. THIS
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO N TX OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SE OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE DURING
THE DAY FROM NE TX NWD ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR INTO MO...AND ALONG THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NE OK STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 50 KT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND. THE
MORE INTENSE/DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING...GIVEN A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 250-300 M2/S2. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR DEVELOPS
NEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

...NRN MO/SE IA/IL/SRN WI TODAY...
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK...AS A RESULT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN NE
OK/SE KS/SW MO...AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS FROM ERN AR/MO EWD. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 58-62 F. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG AND SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE SURFACE CAN
WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 03/31/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1302Z (9:02AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

SWODY1 update, hot and juicy off the wires...

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
CQB 25 NNW JLN 35 NNE SGF 40 SSW TBN 35 NNE RUE 40 NE TXK 35 NNW TYR
30 NNW DAL 15 SSW ADM 30 NE CQB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
HOU 35 WNW NIR 40 W HDO 30 NNE JCT 25 E ABI 40 ENE CSM 20 W TOP 20 W
LWD 25 N LWD 15 W DBQ 20 NW JVL 15 E MKE 20 N BEH 35 SSE SBN 25 WSW
BMG PAH 60 WSW MEM 35 SSW ELD 35 W IER 40 WNW HOU.

Relevant snip

...OK/SW MO/AR/CENTRAL AND ERN TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
LATEST OBSERVED DATA/CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM
THREAT CORRIDOR TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND E
OF I-44 IN MO/OK/WRN AR...WITH A MORE ISOLATED THREAT E OF I-35 IN
SRN OK/TX. THE RESIDUAL PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN
UNCONTAMINATED/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN CO-LOCATED TODAY
FROM CENTRAL/ERN OK SWWD INTO CENTRAL/E TX...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. SOME LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST WRN AR INTO SW/CENTRAL MO ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.

EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO CENTRAL/NE OK...AND
NE OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT IN CENTRAL OK. THIS
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO N TX OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SE OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE DURING
THE DAY FROM NE TX NWD ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR INTO MO...AND ALONG THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NE OK STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 50 KT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND. THE MORE INTENSE/DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING...GIVEN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 250-300 M2/S2. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR DEVELOPS NEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

OK, someone beat me to it with SWODY1, but I used attractive colors...

[CrazyC83]

Thursday looks quite ominous as well...

[tornado92]

Well, it is the beginning of the tornado season so its not a surprise that tornadoes are touching the ground this early. I reckon its going to get alot more common as the season goes on.

[CrazyC83]

Hints of a MDT for Thursday:

SPC AC 010731

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS/ARKLATEX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME UNDERGOES
STRENGTHENING/AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. GFS AND
ECMWF APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON THE SPEED OF THE EWD PROGRESSION OF
A SWRN U.S. SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY A BELT OF 70-75KT CYCLONIC
MID LEVEL FLOW. SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG
DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH
VALLEY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE
TRANSPORTED NWD/INLAND FROM THE GULF AND SOUTH TO THE OH VALLEY.

...TX/OK...ARKLATEX TO MID MS VALLEY...
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS EAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS PANHANDLE TO RED RIVER LOW TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
EVENING. DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/LOW TRIPLE-POINT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN A REGION BOUNDED BY
TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...NWRN TX. AS THE PANHANDLE LOW DEVELOPS
TOWARD THE RED RIVER...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE
LOW...DRYLINE...AND FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT ROTATING
DISCRETE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES. INITIALLY DISCRETE ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERE WEATHER SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS OK/TX
AND INTO THE ARKLATEX/MS VALLEY REGIONS INTO FRIDAY.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS/TORNADOES WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN SOME DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING...AND FORECAST
RANGE...A MDT RISK AREA IS NOT WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. IF LATEST
TRENDS ARE BORNE OUT BY SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...HIGHER SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..CARBIN.. 04/01/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1156Z (7:56AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010831
SPC AC 010831

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2008

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLE...GFS DETERMINISTIC...AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACCOMPANY A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST IN THE DAY 4-5
PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP EWD/SEWD INTO A WARM AND
VERY MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EWD/SEWD TRANSLATION OF THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...ECMWF WAS ONLY
RUNNING ABOUT 12H BEHIND THE GFS WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT/POSITION.
FURTHERMORE...MODEL QPF FIELDS AND SURFACE LOW POSITIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WHEN THIS TIME LAG IS ACCOUNTED FOR.

STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE TWO DAY PERIOD LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY BEGINS TO LESSEN BEYOND DAY 5/SATURDAY WITH
GROWING STANDARD DEVIATIONS NOTED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHT
FIELDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...FAST
FLOW AND GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
ACTIVE WEATHER AS APRIL PROGRESSES.

..CARBIN.. 04/01/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

[Squarethecircle]

Ouch, that doesn't look good. Methinks that this year is kicking into gear, and from what we've seen so far, that could be ominous (though I doubt we'll have another Super Tuesday outbreak).

[RL3AO]

Mentioning a possible moderate risk on a day 3 outlook should open everyone's eyes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Mentioning a possible moderate risk on a day 3 outlook should open everyone's eyes.

Combining the two most important things before the late August to early January time period:


The RVs and other assorted camping vehicles are arriving at TMS early this week.


Last year, tornadic thunderstorms near the track cancelled Friday qualifying.

Looks like the severe weather will be during Thursday practice, and clear out for qualifying on Friday.


Relevant snip from SPC SWODY3

...TX/OK...ARKLATEX TO MID MS VALLEY...
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS EAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS PANHANDLE TO RED RIVER LOW TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
EVENING. DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/LOW TRIPLE-POINT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN A REGION BOUNDED BY
TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...NWRN TX. AS THE PANHANDLE LOW DEVELOPS
TOWARD THE RED RIVER...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE
LOW...DRYLINE...AND FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT ROTATING DISCRETE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES. INITIALLY DISCRETE ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERE WEATHER SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS OK/TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX/MS VALLEY REGIONS INTO FRIDAY.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS/TORNADOES WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN SOME DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING...AND FORECAST
RANGE...A MDT RISK AREA IS NOT WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. IF LATEST TRENDS ARE BORNE OUT BY SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

[CrazyC83]

Surprised they didn't hatch up the 30% with those strong words...

The cancelling was on April 13 last year, I remember the "Friday the 13th" High Risk bust...

[Ed Mahmoud]

As could almost be expected, SE Texas has been dropped from SLIGHT RISK down to "See Text".


Relevant SNIP of 1300 SWODY1

...GULF AND SE ATLANTIC COAST STATES TODAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WHILE THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT
ACCELERATES SWD ACROSS TX IN RESPONSE TO PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISES
IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES. THE FRONT IS PRECEDED BY A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL...NW GA...AND ERN TN. THE
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS FROM MS WWD INTO TX IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LESSER MOISTURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SE STATES.

THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT/DIFFUSE OUTFLOW ACROSS TX/LA...AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND REMNANT
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME IN THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES WELL N/NE OF THE GULF
COAST...AND ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. INSTEAD...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO COVER
THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Surprised they didn't hatch up the 30% with those strong words...

The cancelling was on April 13 last year, I remember the "Friday the 13th" High Risk bust...

Not a complete bust

http://youtube.com/watch?v=7M3zp3zI7VE