Palm Beach Post coverage of National Hurricane Conference

[HurricaneJoe22]

Experts say faulty storm predictions get too much press

By ROBERT P. KING

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Thursday, April 03, 2008

ORLANDO — Is too much Gray clouding hurricane forecasts?

Some storm experts think so. And on Wednesday, they urged the news media to pay less attention to the hurricane season predictions that have made veteran researcher William Gray one of the nation's most prominent weather prognosticators.

The problem, the critics say: Gray's forecasts have been wrong in the past few seasons, predicting too few hurricanes for the record-setting 2005 season and too many storms since.

In addition, they say the hoopla about Gray's number of projected storms obscures the urgent message of preparing for every season - even the quiet ones.

The criticism emerged at the National Hurricane Conference, an annual gathering where Gray is one of the brightest stars and traditionally gives the closing speech.

"I think the seasonal forecasts are a travesty for us to show," meteorologist Jim Cantore, a popular storm chaser for The Weather Channel, said during a morning chat session. "That's something we need to stop doing."

Jim Poling of the Florida News Network agreed: "I really like the idea of not publishing Dr. Gray's forecast. ... I think it's part of the hype."

Bob Breck, a longtime television meteorologist in New Orleans, even argued that Gray's predictions bite homeowners with higher insurance premiums.

"The insurance companies are using these numbers to keep our rates high," Breck said.

Gray shrugged off the brickbats, saying he's used to receiving "hate mail" for his work. He attributes much of it to the past two quiet seasons.

"Wait till we have an active season - then they'll change their minds," said Gray, a Colorado State University researcher whose next forecast comes out Tuesday.

His predictions draw on clues such as ocean temperatures and global air currents. After each season, Gray and his team publish an analysis of where they went wrong.

"I'm amazed what I've learned over 25 years," he said.

Gray's defenders include former National Hurricane Center Director Neil Frank, who said the forecasts have performed well in predicting whether a season will be calmer or busier than average.

"He's been very, very good," said Frank, who led the center from 1974 to 1987. "But it's a forecast, which means you're going to have some errors."

Bill Read, the new director, declined to comment on Gray's work. But he said the center's parent agency will seek less publicity than usual when it issues its own hurricane-season forecast later this spring.

Read urged the media to push a different message: "It only takes one storm to ruin your day."

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Hurricane conference draws low turnout

By ROBERT P. KING

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

ORLANDO — The post-Katrina era is in full swing at this week's National Hurricane Conference, which is drawing its smallest turnout since before the catastrophic 2005 storm.

About 1,700 meteorologists, emergency managers, insurance executives, disaster consultants and others are expected to attend the weeklong gathering, which began with a series of technical workshops Monday.

That's a drop from about 2,000 two years ago and more than 1,800 last year, conference spokeswoman Rebeca Searcey said.

The drop partly reflects the budget cuts that state and local governments have endured in the past year, Searcey said. She said such fluctuations are typical for the annual conference, which for the past few years has alternated between hotels in Orlando and New Orleans.

As in the past couple of years, the agenda includes discussions about global warming, insurance crises, inadequate building standards and caring for the elderly and disabled.

It's due to finish Friday with a speech by William Gray, the Colorado State University researcher best known for his long-term forecasts of hurricane seasons.

In recent years, Gray has used his closing slot to scoff at the notion that global warming is creating stronger hurricanes. This year, he's scheduled to discuss a slightly different topic - "the history of seasonal forecasting."

Others scheduled to speak this week include new National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read, former hurricane center Director Max Mayfield and R. David Paulison, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

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Wash that Gray out of your news, hurricane experts plead

By Bob King | Wednesday, April 2, 2008, 03:14 PM

Should the news media get over their fascination with William Gray?

Some hurricane experts think so. They say they see little sense in news organizations continuing to trumpet the long-term forecasts of the veteran Colorado State University hurricane researcher, especially since Gray has had only a mixed record in predicting the number of storms to expect each season.

“I think the seasonal forecasts are a travesty for us to show,” said meteorologist Jim Cantore, a popular storm chaser for The Weather Channel, during a chat session this morning at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. “That’s something we need to stop doing.”

Jim Poling of the Florida News Network near Orlando agreed, although he said he’d still publicize the “official” seasonal forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — even though skeptics say those predictions are no more reliable than Gray’s.

“I really like the idea of not publishing Dr. Gray’s forecast,” Poling said.

But Cantore said he wasn’t singling out Gray, calling both sets of long-term forecasts “worthless.” The important message, he said, is for residents to prepare for every season.

Gray, who’s been doing the forecasts for decades, said he’s continuing to learn from them. Still, he said he understands the skeptics’ point — in 2006 and 2007, his forecasts called for more hurricanes than nature produced.

“Wait till we have an active year,” Gray said. Then you might hear a different message.

One thing hasn’t changed: The annual conference wraps up Friday. And as always, Gray gets the honor of being the final speaker.