Models Acting Up Again

[Evil Jeremy]

A few models are showing something forming next week off the coast of Florida and Georgia, with the GFS showing a pressure center near 1000 MB at 168 hours. What do you guys make of this:

Sea Level Pressure Models:

CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
GFS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
NOGAPS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

850 MB Vorticity Computer Models:

CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
GFS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
NOGAPS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[boca]

Jeremy it looks like a frontal low might develop on that front that will be hung up on the Georgia/Florida border.I don't think its anything that will be tropical but maybe some good beneficial rains for Florida.The Miami discussion mentions the possibility of heavy rain.

FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST IS EVEN MORE
COMPLICATED AS THE GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIMP INTO NORTH CENTRAL OR CENTRAL FLORIDA SOMEWHERE
AND MEANDER THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS SEVERAL SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY RIPPLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN VICINITY
OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SEEN IN THE GFS
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BUT SEVERAL WEAK SFC WAVES ALONG
THE FRONT MAY BE POSSIBLE. AT ANY RATE...IF THE FRONT STALLS IN
THE VICINITY OF WHERE THE MODELS FORECAST IT TO...THEN MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY POOLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT COULD LEAD TO
PERIODS OF MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY

[Cyclone1]

The GFS is especially interesting...

Still, most likely non-tropical.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Extratropical Storm- Noreaster

[brunota2003]

MHX (Newport, NC NWS) Long Term:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR NEXT WORKWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GFS HAS WEAKENED
ITS FCST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
NET RESULT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS IS RAINFALL
COVERING MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTND PERIOD WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

[RL3AO]

LOL. Look at the WRF.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WRF must be showing a strong baroclinic noreaster IMO.