Recurves For 2008?

[Blown Away]

If the analog years for 2008 are 1953, 1956, 1989, 1999, and 2000, it looks like a higher probability for recurves with a possible busy Carolina hurricane season.

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[hurricanetrack]

Remind me please, whose analogs are those? I assume CSU? Thanks!

[HURAKAN]

I assume my odds of getting hit by storm this year is pretty high if the analog years come true!

Insurance agencies across the state are saying that they don't have any money to pay for anything. Hell will break lose if Florida is hit this year or in the near future by a major hurricane.

[Andrew92]

Well, it seems like every year I base what's going to happen on the analog years and I'm usually wrong. My advice would be to use the analog years as a guide, but no matter where you live to be ready for that one in advance.

BTW, isn't 1950 also an analog?

-Andrew92

[Blown Away]

1953 was an El Nino year, 1956 was neutral, and 1989, 1999, and 2000 were La Nina years. Look out Carolina's this season IMO. I predict this board will have some classic SFL/Carolina posts this season arguing on whether the hurricane is going to hit SFL or recurve into Carolina's.

[NDG]

I thought that the word "recurve" was used to say that a storm would go out into the open Atlantic and not hit any land in the US.

By the way, yes, I agree that it looks as if the SE US has better chance this year of getting hit by one or more hurricanes this year compared to the last two years.

[hurricanetrack]

Recurvature can swing them in to land or safely away and out to sea. It all depends on where that recurvature takes place and what its angle is, etc.

[Blown Away]

Your right, I guess I generally meant the CONUS. It seems La Nina years create close calls for SFL and problems for the Carolinas. Seems the BH is weaker and the EC trough is more prominent during La Nina years.

[NDG]

But this has not been a typical La Nina, so far there seems to be a strong Bermuda High and the troughiness is more towards the central US versus the east coast. I think the whole SE US coast not just the Carolinas need to keep an eye, if things do not change by the heart of the hurricane season.

[MiamiensisWx]

I definitely agree that the SE coast (including the Carolinas) faces greater probabilities of strikes during La Nina seasons. The large number of landfalling tropical cyclones in North Carolina likely indicates higher ACE and more Cape Verde development further east; therefore, this offers greater chances of recurvature depending on the setup as a TC approaches the Southeast. It is not because of a weaker Bermuda ridge; studies have demonstrated that the SE ridge tends to be stronger and further west, especially in moderate or strong -ENSO (Nina) seasons. A negative (-) NAO can also result in a displaced westward Bermuda ridge during the season. The Carolinas are vulnerable because 1) they "stick out" like FL and other regions; and 2) TC cyclogenesis often occurs further east in Nina seasons. Reduced temperature inversions reduces subsidence, allowing convective formation across the basin in multi-year moderate/strong La Ninas.

Your premise that Florida (or any other region) in Nina seasons features a lower risk versus another area is fundamentally flawed. Studies of past Ninas indicate a large percentage of Florida strikes originate from the south and southwest. Caribbean strikes on the state are very common.

Here are some examples from Nina seasons.

1. Isbell 1964 - Cat 2
2. Cleo 1964 - Cat 2
3. Storm #18 (1933) - Brush
4. Irene 1999 - Cat 1
5. Storm #10 (1909) - Cat 3
6. King (1950) - Cat 3

There are many additional cases, too. Storms have also struck FL from the east in La Nina years. 1933 and 1949 (two Jupiter hurricanes) immediately come to the mind.

A strong, west placed Bermuda ridge is a prominent feature in several multi-year moderate/strong Ninas. Why is it "abnormal"? If it didn't exist, storms would recurve long before reaching the Carolinas or Southeast coast.

I think it all depends on the timing and pattern when a TC approaches the coast. Personally, I think FL and the Carolinas are "at risk" this season, in addition to the CONUS from Maine to Brownsville. An above average season (NS) automatically guarantees higher probabilities along the entire Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.

[MiamiensisWx]

But this has not been a typical La Nina, so far there seems to be a strong Bermuda High and the troughiness is more towards the central US versus the east coast. I think the whole SE US coast not just the Carolinas need to keep an eye, if things do not change by the heart of the hurricane season.

Patterns continually change throughout the year...

It's all about the "timing of a moment."

Finally, when did a strong SE ridge become atypical for a Nina season? If we had a trough along the East Coast like 2006, everything would recurve out to sea and never strike the Carolinas...

[NDG]

I was just saying that if Blown_away thought that La Ninas typically create EC troughs and weaker Bermuda Highs, that this was not going to be a typical La Nina by his thoughts.

[crownweather]

Also keep in mind that the US has never gone more than two years in a row without a major US hurricane strike.

[Cyclenall]

Also keep in mind that the US has never gone more than two years in a row without a major US hurricane strike.

Yes it has, 2000 to 2003. Lili and Isabel were below major hurricane strength at landfall.

[crownweather]

Sorry....my bad!!

[MiamiensisWx]

FL strikes during La Nina (-ENSO) seasons:

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c18/CapeVerdeWave/FLNinaseasons.png

FL strikes during El Nino (+ENSO) seasons:

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/3926/flninoseasonsgb8.png

Note that ENSO records utilized in the NOAA Coastal Services data only extends back to the 1930s, which may skew older climatological records.

Overall, there are few differences between the total number of systems striking FL and NC during La Nina seasons. Although more Cape Verde tropical cyclones may have struck the Carolinas, it is not necessarily because of a weaker Bermuda ridge.

Regardless, Florida (or other locations) could be avoided even in active seasons.

[Blown Away]

It just seems the recent La Nina events resulted in more recurves. I guess that thinking works against my understanding of La Niña, doesn't La Nina cause the jet stream to be higher in latitude on average and I would think that would allow the BH to move closer to the EC.

[MiamiensisWx]

It just seems the recent La Nina events resulted in more recurves. I guess that thinking works against my understanding of La Niña, doesn't La Nina cause the jet stream to be higher in latitude on average and I would think that would allow the BH to move closer to the EC.

I believe some of the recent North Carolina landfalls may have been due to the "bad" (for the Carolinas) luck of the draw. For example, Floyd arrived as a shortwave trough entered the Appalachian region. At the same time, higher SLP heights and a ridge to the northeast prevented the cyclone from completely recurving out to sea, so it gradually curved north and made landfall near Cape Fear, North Carolina. The ridging was strong, but the shortwave trough's timing prevented a west-northwest path to the Florida east coast. If the upper-air pattern was slightly different across the CONUS, Floyd may have struck Florida. Overall, timing of each continental system seems to be the prevailing factor in these "Florida versus the Carolinas" landfall debates. A system striking North Carolina was often aided by a strong ridge. If that ridge wasn't present, it would have recurved away from the Southeast.