2008 Severe Weather Thread

[Ed Mahmoud]

Surprised they didn't hatch up the 30% with those strong words...

The cancelling was on April 13 last year, I remember the "Friday the 13th" High Risk bust...

Not a complete bust

http://youtube.com/watch?v=7M3zp3zI7VE

Better video, and correlate, if you will, transformer flash and sirens stopping.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=LWoCQ2Q8o2g&feature=related

[Ed Mahmoud]

Both the new GFS run and the new WRF run see thunderstorms developing in Oklahoma and Texas, with the Southern extent somewhere between about DFW and Waco.


The GFS sounding shows decent instability, but little of that in the lowest couple of kilometers of the atmosphere, suggesting only a limited tornado threat for DFW Thursday afternoon/evening. However, the WRF forecast sounding is what the people who see what I write on the internet refer to as 'Ed's Weather stuff'. The WRF sounding is just screaming 'large and long tracked tornadoes. Lots of shear/wind energy, convective atmospheric potential energy in excess of 2000 Joules/Kg.

'Bears watch', as they say in France.

But the good news is, it should all clear out in time for NASCAR qualifying Friday. Kyle Petty has benched himself in favor of Chad McCumbee, but I'll still wear my #45 Petty Enterprises Wells Fargo Dodge Charger Kyle Petty 3XL t-shirt. Bad news for Petty as well, General Mills/Cheerios is leaving the #43 car driven by Corpus Christi's own Bobby LaBonte to sponsor a fourth Richard Childress racing Chevrolet.
WRF & GFS forecast soundings for DFW Thursday late afternoon...

WRF & GFS soundings for DFW Thursday early evening...

[CrazyC83]

Very far out, but models seem to think April 9-10 is the next chance for significant severe weather...and they scream major outbreak there too. Hang on tight, we have a wild ride ahead!!!

[RL3AO]

SPC made mention of it. It will probably be placed on the D4-8 outlook tomorrow. GFS looks scary with a closed 992mb low over OK/KS at 168 hr.

HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED /DAY 7/ AND THU /DAY 8/...AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SWRN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR RICHER GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD ON TUE...
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD WED AND THU. THOUGH SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT PROBABLE BY MID NEXT WEEK...WILL WAIT ANOTHER DAY OR
SO FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA AS TOO MUCH DIVERGENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/MREF MODELS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND EWD EJECTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.

[CrazyC83]

SPC made mention of it. It will probably be placed on the D4-8 outlook tomorrow. GFS looks scary with a closed 992mb low over OK/KS at 168 hr.

HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED /DAY 7/ AND THU /DAY 8/...AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SWRN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR RICHER GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD ON TUE...
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD WED AND THU. THOUGH SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT PROBABLE BY MID NEXT WEEK...WILL WAIT ANOTHER DAY OR
SO FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA AS TOO MUCH DIVERGENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/MREF MODELS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND EWD EJECTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.

There seems to be model consensus, which 7-8 days out is downright scary...

[RL3AO]

There seems to be model consensus, which 7-8 days out is downright scary...

Sounds like Feb 5 almost.

[RL3AO]

Next week could be interesting. Day 4 and Day 7-8 might be interesting.

[CrazyC83]

That Day 4 came out of nowhere, and I am not really seeing much yet. They still don't mention the main event.

[Ed Mahmoud]

60 knot low level jet Tuesday evening Arkansas to Iowa per Euro. Strong 500 mb winds overhead. Looks like an excellent setup for tornadoes in the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Not pasted in, weaker wind fields, and 500 mb trough not as pronounced on Monday evening, but there could be at least some severe weather from North Texas to Kansas. I suspect this will also bring more rain to places that don't need it. I see the SPC mention of insufficient moisture return for Day 5, as Euro suggests just the beginning of modified cold air mass starting to return from Gulf Monday late, but I suspect that 1) a 60 knot low level jet will do a decent job transporting moisture and 2) they won't need extreme instability, this will be like a February tornado outbreak with moderate instability but extreme shear.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I had a summer job in Jena, working around the Olla Field and down towards Nebo. Had to drive to Catahoula Parish on Sunday to buy beer, however.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1007 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GRANT PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WINNFIELD...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 1004 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WINNFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 73 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ATLANTA BY 1010 AM CDT...
MIDWAY AND JENA BY 1030 AM CDT...

[Brent]

Damage reported in Cullman, AL. Conflicting reports on how bad it is.

Tornado Warning for DeKalb County in Northeast AL(same storm).

Meanwhile back in MS, numerous tornado warnings around Jackson.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1154 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 ESE VICKSBURG 32.31N 90.81W
04/04/2008 WARREN MS AMATEUR RADIO

PEOPLE TRAPPED IN HOMES 3 MI S OF I-20 EXIT 4 AND 5
BEECHWOOD EXIT NEAR BOVINA. POSSIBLE TORNADO

[Brent]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1242 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

MSC049-089-121-123-041815-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0123.000000T0000Z-080404T1815Z/
HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-SCOTT MS-MADISON MS-
1242 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL MADISON...WESTERN SCOTT...NORTHERN RANKIN AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES...

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 1242 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR FANNIN...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLOWOOD...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
8 MILES SOUTH OF PISGAH BY 1245 PM CDT...
PELAHATCHIE AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF LEESBURG BY 1255 PM CDT...
MORTON AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF BRANCH BY 100 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BETWEEN 90 AND
110 MPH. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION...TAKE COVER NOW!

[Bunkertor]

I just listened to some radio-stations in the Jackson area. They seem not to care much

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E CNTRL AL THROUGH N CNTRL AND CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041733Z - 041900Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FARTHER EAST FROM E
CNTRL AL THROUGH N CNTRL AND CNTRL GA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 19Z.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN SC WWD THROUGH S
CNTRL GA THEN NWWD THROUGH NWRN GA INTO EXTREME NERN AL. A SQUALL
LINE EXTENDS FROM NERN AL SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN MS THEN INTO
SERN TX. A SWLY 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE MID TO
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE PERSISTENT STRONG SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND
MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEDGE FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD
DURING THE DAY WITH DESTABILIZATION IN THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR.
SPECIAL 17Z RAOB DATA FROM BIRMINGHAM SHOW THE CAP HAS WEAKENED WITH
DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS AL AHEAD OF THE LINE. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME INTO EXTREME ERN AL
AND GA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS BOWING SEGMENTS. LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS.

=====================================================================

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN MS THROUGH CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 164...

VALID 041701Z - 041830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 164 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND APPEARS GREATEST WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO W CNTRL AND SW MS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM CNTRL AND SRN MS THROUGH
CNTRL AL.

LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NERN AL SWWD THROUGH CNTRL MS...SWD
ALONG THE MS/LA BORDER THEN SWWD INTO SERN TX. PORTION OF LINE OVER
WRN MS IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 50 KT. LOW CLOUDS ARE MIXING OUT
ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO NEAR 80 ALONG WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS. VWP DATA SHOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS VEERED TO SSWLY WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY FROM 100 TO 150 M2/S2...BUT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM
40 TO 50 KT. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE WITH
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE 15Z RAOB FROM
JACKSON MS SHOWED THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BETWEEN 850-700 MB HAS
COOLED AND MOISTENED...EFFECTIVELY MINIMIZING THE CAPPING INVERSION.
MOREOVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS
WEAKENED WITH DISCRETE CELLS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM SRN
MS NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AL. THIS CONVECTION MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL IF IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

[Bunkertor]

MD No. 0554 has been replaced by Tornadowatch 164



SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 950 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
FORT POLK LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES EAST OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW
162...WW 163...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN AL SWWD TO
CENTRAL LA WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING E/SEWD THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
WATCH AREA S OF THE LINE IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG AND STRONG/VEERING
SHEAR PROFILES. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON..BOTH NEAR THE LINE
AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

[Brent]

Whew, things are going nuts here. About 10 tornado warnings in the last hour. Storms near the Birmingham and Anniston metro right now.

and just like that most of them are weakening. Not much to report.

[RL3AO]

Was there a spotted tornado with the tornado emergency at least?

[RL3AO]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
344 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ALC021-037-042100-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0075.000000T0000Z-080404T2100Z/
CHILTON AL-COOSA AL-
344 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
COOSA AND EAST CENTRAL CHILTON COUNTIES...

AT 341 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MITCHELL DAM...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF
CLANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HIGGINS FERRY PARK AND DOLLAR BY 350 PM CDT...
LYLE...MORIAH AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF UNITY BY 400 PM CDT...

[Brent]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2006

...SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI TODAY...INCLUDING A PATH OF DAMAGE ACROSS THE JACKSON
METROPOLITAN AREA...

A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS BAND OF STORMS...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. HERE IS A SUMMARY OF SOME THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE...

...JACKSON METROPOLITAN AREA...
A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED WIND AND HAIL DAMAGE ACROSS THE
JACKSON METRO AREA. A PATH OF CONCENTRATED DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MADISON...NORTHERN HINDS...AND NORTHWESTERN RANKIN
COUNTIES. PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE A CONCENTRATED PATH OF DAMAGE
THAT STARTED OVER WEST COUNTY LINE ROAD ALONG THE HINDS/RANKIN
COUNTY LINE...AND MOVED JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST ACROSS THE TOUGALOO
AREA...ACROSS NORTHEAST JACKSON...THEN INTO RANKIN COUNTY IMPACTING
THE AREAS ALONG OLD FANNIN ROAD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND THEN INTO
AREAS ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 25 NEAR NORTHWEST RANKIN ATTENDANCE
CENTER. MAJOR TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES HAS OCCURRED ALONG THIS
PATH. RADAR INDICATED A STRONG CIRCULATION ALONG THIS PATH...AND
THERE WERE SIGHTINGS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND APPARENT TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...AN EXACT DETERMINATION OF WHERE DAMAGE WAS STRAIGHT LINE
OR TORNADIC CAN NOT BE MADE UNTIL A GROUND AND/OR AERIAL SURVEY
TAKES PLACE...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL TOMORROW.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY DAMAGE OCCURRED IN BOLTON WHERE SEVERAL
BUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. RADAR INDICATED GREATER THAN
100 MPH WINDS IN THE TISH AREA...AND A SURVEY WILL TAKE PLACE IN
THIS AREA AS WELL.

...VICKSBURG AREA...
MAJOR DAMAGE TO HOMES AND VEHICLES...ALONG WITH HEAVY TREE AND
POWERLINE DAMAGE...OCCURRED IN THE EAGLE LAKE AREA OF NORTHERN
WARREN COUNTY. RADAR INDICATED ROTATION INDICATIVE OF A TORNADO IN
THIS AREA...AND AN NWS SURVEY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND TO
DETERMINE IF IN FACT A TORNADO DID TOUCHDOWN IN THIS AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...DAMAGE OCCURRED JUST SOUTH OF BOVINA WHERE AT LEAST
ONE MOBILE HOME WAS HEAVILY DAMAGED. RADAR ALSO INDICATED A
POTENTIAL TORNADO IN THIS AREA. AT LEAST FIVE HOMES IN THE CITY OF
VICKSBURG SUFFERED MAJOR DAMAGE DUE TO LARGE TREES FALLING ON THEM.
WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE OCCURRED THROUGHOUT WARREN
COUNTY.

...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SCOTT...NESHOBA...
LEAKE...KEMPER...NEWTON AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS DAMAGE
HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT WITH DAMAGE TO HOMES AND STRUCTURES FROM
FALLING TREES. RADAR INDICATED THAT THIS DAMAGE WAS MORE LIKELY TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HOWEVER THE NWS WILL LIKELY
SURVEY MORE CONCENTRATED DAMAGE AREAS TO DETERMINE IF ANY TORNADOES
MAY HAVE OCCURRED.

...YAZOO COUNTY...NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES WERE DOWNED ACROSS YAZOO COUNTY...AND
AT LEAST ONE MOBILE HOME HAS BEEN DESTROYED. AT LEAST TWO
CIRCULATIONS OF POSSIBLE TORNADOES MOVED ACROSS YAZOO COUNTY AND
WILL NEED TO BE SURVEYED BY NWS OFFICIALS.

ADDITIONAL UPDATES REGARDING DAMAGE WILL BE SENT OUT AS THEY ARE
RECEIVED.

[jaxfladude]

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