Interesting Miami Discussion

[gatorcane]

Latest NWS Miami forecast is very "August-like" with mentions of colliding seabreezes on the west coast of South Florida and strengthening high pressure in the western Atlantic. The trough of low pressure moving NW from the windwards is a bit unusual this time of year and I'm curious what comes of it, although if this were summer, it would certainly be grabbing significant attention.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 291457
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1057 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2008

.UPDATE...
RECENT DATA FROM KAMX 88-D INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE PENINSULA. IT
APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ADD A 10 POP AND
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS WILL BE THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT UPDATE TO THE FIRST PERIOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2008/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WINDS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE CWA...AND KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. SO
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT 10 PERCENT POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER TEXAS MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE
OVER THE CWA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA
BREEZES COLLIDE. SO WILL HAVE LOW IN CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS ON SUNDAY.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA AREA TO MOVE EAST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE CWA...AND AGAIN ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS. SO WILL ADD
THUNDER WORDING TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS ON
MONDAY...AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS TO CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL THEN BREAK DOWN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
MOVE NORTHWEST. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT ON WHERE TO
TAKE THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE ECMWF WANTS TO TAKE IT
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFS MODEL WANTS TO DEVELOP A
WEAK LOW ALONG THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND KEEP
THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL AND ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE CWA FOR LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
LATE THIS WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR ALL TERMINALS THRU PD. WEAK WINDS BLO 10 KTS INCRG TO 10 TO 15
KTS E CST TERMINALS AFT 14Z. AT KAPF WINDS SHIFT W AFT 16Z AS
SEA BREEZE AROUND 10 KTS DVLPS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS OVER THE CWA WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FROM THE
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE INCREASING
TO 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GULF SIDE WILL SEE THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUILD TO 6 FEET
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...WHILE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S TO 50. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL
VALUE..DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. SO NO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 71 81 73 / - 10 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 73 82 75 / - 10 20 30
MIAMI 83 72 83 74 / - 10 30 30
NAPLES 85 65 86 69 / 10 - 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD

[HURRICANELONNY]

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE TROUGH?
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

[Patrick99]

Seems to be a minor spin near Cuba, helping to generate some storms over the island with the heating of the day.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Let's see. By the time the late afternoon guy gets to the forecast/models most of the rain will be gone. My weekend forecast. Warm and humid with a slight chance of showers.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

[boca]

Let's see. By the time the late afternoon guy gets to the forecast/models most of the rain will be gone. My weekend forecast. Warm and humid with a slight chance of showers.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

Wouldn't it be nice for once to have a April where we can record rainfall.Every April here in S FL has been bone dry.If we could get the rainfall up by Lake O like what happened on Tuesday we can go into rainy season with some hope of the Lake getting to 15ft.

[HURRICANELONNY]

At least they got last night around 5am forecast right. But all in all the models did poorly once again. It was a perfect weekend. As long as they keep it around 70%. It will be a nice weekend.

[ciclonson]

We had one hell of a storm here in S. FL last night. I'm wondering why no one is discussing this or if they are, then where?

Where I live there was debris all over this morning - something akin to a small tropical storm.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It rained hard during the night once again in Hollywood. But no damage like what you got.