Erin NHC Report is up (Read it on page 3)

[MiamiensisWx]

it is not really settled yet

for the record, this scientist firmly believes it was a TS over Oklahoma. It was a baroclinically enhanced TC, just like Charley and Wilma were when they devastated Florida

Did you hear any possible hints that Erin may be re-evaluated to a TS/STS over Oklahoma? I know that you're closely involved with RSMAS, so I would be interested in further details.

The TCR remains on hold...

[Cryomaniac]

I'd be interested to hear what the latest is that a TCR has been released.

[Derek Ortt]

the fact that the TCR is on hold should be somewhat telling that something is still under consideration for that storm

[Chacor]

I don't think so, since they've already submitted documents to the WMO. Probably just waiting for finalised obs.

[Category 5]

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF ERIN.......

To be continued.

[Cryomaniac]

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF ERIN.......

To be continued.

Seems reasonable.

[Ptarmigan]

Erin is a very interesting storm. It gave us a lot of rain for one. Strangely, no rain fell when it made landfall near Corpus Christi.

[george_r_1961]

I have seen tropical cyclones regenerate or strengthen over land but not hundreds of miles inland. Danny in 1997 regrouped over the NC coastal plain and became a TS again and the next year TS Bonnie became a hurricane again over northeast NC. It should be noted that in both these cases at least part of the circulation was over water. And much of eastern NC is either inland sounds(Albermarle and Pamlico) or swamp.

Im leaning toward Erin being an MCS over Oklahoma. It was a remnant low with enough convergence left to cause some convection. It then interacted with an upper trough and exploded. It didnt explode because it moved over warm water and under a massive ridge..as a tropical cyclone might. It exploded because it interacted with an upper feature. Not a tropical system and probably not a subtropical system either IMHO.

In short the synergic effect of the upper system and the remnant low created a monster. In my opinion it would be more proper to call this an MCS rather than a tropical or subtropical cyclone even though the remnants of a TC contributed to this event.

Although the "NC Tornadocane of 1999" did not originate from a dying TC there are a few similarities. It "looked" like a TC but certainly wasnt. And it produced a wind gust of 165 mph(possibly tornadic)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/coolimg/nc_storm/index.html

Check it out

[Cryomaniac]

I have seen tropical cyclones regenerate or strengthen over land but not hundreds of miles inland. Danny in 1997 regrouped over the NC coastal plain and became a TS again and the next year TS Bonnie became a hurricane again over northeast NC. It should be noted that in both these cases at least part of the circulation was over water. And much of eastern NC is either inland sounds(Albermarle and Pamlico) or swamp.

Im leaning toward Erin being an MCS over Oklahoma. It was a remnant low with enough convergence left to cause some convection. It then interacted with an upper trough and exploded. It didnt explode because it moved over warm water and under a massive ridge..as a tropical cyclone might. It exploded because it interacted with an upper feature. Not a tropical system and probably not a subtropical system either IMHO.

In short the synergic effect of the upper system and the remnant low created a monster. In my opinion it would be more proper to call this an MCS rather than a tropical or subtropical cyclone even though the remnants of a TC contributed to this event.

Although the "NC Tornadocane of 1999" did not originate from a dying TC there are a few similarities. It "looked" like a TC but certainly wasnt. And it produced a wind gust of 165 mph(possibly tornadic)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/coolimg/nc_storm/index.html

Check it out

Landcane!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

The TCR still remains "quarantined" and it hasn't been released. Honestly, I highly doubt that all surface observations were not incorporated into the TCR earlier in March. This delay must be related to Erin's status over Oklahoma.

[RL3AO]

Which comes first Arthur or Erin TCR?

[brunota2003]

At this rate? I'd put my money on Arthur

[CrazyC83]

The TCR still remains "quarantined" and it hasn't been released. Honestly, I highly doubt that all surface observations were not incorporated into the TCR earlier in March. This delay must be related to Erin's status over Oklahoma.

My thinking too. It was ready to go but there was enough dispute to pull back on it. When it comes, it comes - there's no need to rush it. The importance is getting everything right, and there is enormous disagreement on its inland status.

[cycloneye]

Finnally!! the Cyclone Report!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL052007_Erin.pdf

[RL3AO]

"Erin will also be remembered for its unusual, brief strengthening, although not as a tropical cyclone, over Oklahoma."

[Andrew92]

I'll agree with Erin just being classified as a "low" rather than purely tropical, extratropical, or subtropical.

They described it in very good detail. A tropical cyclone has to be fed by the warm waters, an extratropical storm is frontal in nature, and I'm not entirely sure what classifies a subtropical storm but it didn't quite appear to be that either. I will say that I could see Erin as tropical briefly, but then again just because a wave appears to have good convection and a LLC doesn't automatically means it's a depression. Persistence is the key there, and it was here as well.

At least, that's my take on Erin.

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Well I've not got much to say about it really, I suppose in the end I don't think the arguements about this will stop at this though at least from an offical standpoint it is...

Hurakan-it looks better then a lot of cat-1 hurricanes did-looks like a eyewall on that eastern side!

[Andrew92]

However, just because it "looks" better than some storms doesn't mean it's stronger. The eye feature is impressive looking, but it also lasted a very short period of time. I seem to recall one tropical storm a few years ago that had an almost very distinct eye on satellite, but the feature only lasted very briefly. There was debate over whether or not it was a hurricane, but the judgment was that the "eye" was too transient to warrant an upgrade.

Like I said, Erin could possibly have been tropical, but only for a very brief period of time. Calling it a "low" was probably the correct move.

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

I don't see the controversy ending though...we should have a poll on here, saying "What do you think Erin should be classified as while over Oklahoma".

The options should be:

*Tropical cyclone
*Subtropical cyclone
*"Low" (per NHC)
*Extratropical cyclone
*Separate system/trough
*Something else...