Strange GOM blob...

[CrazyC83]

Mentioned heavily in the Florida weather discussion, I decided to start a separate thread for it. It looks quite well organized for early April, can it break off the trough though? (Also where is the center?)

[CrazyC83]

What is this anyway? Another thread created a couple minutes later said MCS...

[JonathanBelles]

Technically its a trough.

[jrod]

Our PoP doesn't go up until Firday here in Jax, I'd expect that energy to be here Wednesday. I did notice some marginally warm water in the area but any tropical development imo is way far fetched.

[rainydaze]

Miami NWS is saying one model is taking it east and one model has it dipping down south. I wonder which way it's gonna go. I LOVE all this rain we're getting btw

[RL3AO]

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTS A SFC TROUGH
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAME REGION THIS MORNING. AT 1500
UTC...THE TROUGH RUNS FROM 28N90W TO A 1007 MB SFC LOW LOCATED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SFC TROUGH. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY THAT IS NOW
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W.
ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODELS...THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AND
WILL PROBABLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE
STATE OF FLORIDA FOR THE THIRD NIGHT IN A ROW. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE WEST COAST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF REMAINS PRETTY TRANQUIL WITH MAINLY LIGHT SE WINDS E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOOKING
AHEAD... THE RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THU AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS FRIDAY.

[NDG]

Not a chance, it is more in the upper levels than anything at the surface. I would rather spend my time on the system east of FL, which is not going to do much to begin with.

[HURRICANELONNY]

First the NWS said a low off the Carolinas. Then off the east coast of Florida. Then in the Gulf. Models switch faster then my last girlfriend.

[Ptarmigan]

I noticed it too. I was wondering what it was all about.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's nothing tropical. It's a typical Mesoscale Convective Complex associated with a shortwave trough in the Gulf of Mexico.

[HurricaneRobert]

The Canadian and GFS were showing some action north of the Bahamas for a couple of days. It's mostly gone now.

[RL3AO]

Just for the record, did anyone checked the NRL today...just in case?

[Category 5]

Heres an equation

60kt sheer + 24-26C SST'S + Tail end of a front + April = Nothing.

[Cyclone1]

*points at the calendar*

[wyq614]

NRL: No active storms