Wed., 9th of April 08 till Friday 11th outbreak-thread

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6SpeedTA95
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#41 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:01 pm

Fort Worth Texas, 58*, dewpoint 56*

Dallas 64* and dewpoint 61* the warm front pushing through the metroplex now.
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Re:

#42 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:02 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:Fort Worth Texas, 58*, dewpoint 56*

Dallas 64* and dewpoint 61* the warm front pushing through the metroplex now.



Last page, 11ºF jump when the winds shifted from East to South in San Angelo the last hour. Pretty impressive warm front.
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#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:09 pm

Is that a bow echo developing?
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#44 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:21 pm

Update from NWS Paducah conference call:

Appears that they will hold the MDT at 1730Z, but a very strongly-worded one with a probable upgrade to HIGH at 0600Z
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#45 Postby RL3AO » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:22 pm

Think we will see a 45H tornado tomorrow?
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Re:

#46 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:24 pm

RL3AO wrote:Think we will see a 45H tornado tomorrow?


It's quite possible as an upgrade, although probably will initiate at 30H (which is still extremely dangerous). I think it will be 30H tornado, 60H wind (which also supports a high risk) and 45H hail at the start.
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#47 Postby RL3AO » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:26 pm

Also, will Paducah put the conf call online like they did for Feb 5?
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Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread

#48 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:26 pm

Hints of a high risk at 2000Z?

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 091639
OKZ000-TXZ000-100045-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT WED APR 09 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS

SURROUNDING THE HIGHEST RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTH AND EAST INTO PARTS OF
KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA

A VERY STRONG HIGH-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER ARIZONA AND
NEVADA...WITH 120 MPH JET STREAM WINDS...WILL SWEEP EAST INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. THESE WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND BREADTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE
NEW MEXICO LOW HEADS EASTWARD.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...WITH THE FAST JET STREAM FLOW ALOFT...WILL CREATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS CALLED
SUPERCELLS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SCATTERED STORMS WITH HAIL MAY OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORMS...HOWEVER...LIKELY WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS...THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS THREAT WILL ALSO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO A
LARGE PART OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 04/09/2008

$$
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Re:

#49 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:27 pm

RL3AO wrote:Also, will Paducah put the conf call online like they did for Feb 5?


Hopefully once processed...the slides are online.
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Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread

#50 Postby RL3AO » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:27 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Hints of a high risk at 2000Z?

SURROUNDING THE HIGHEST RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTH AND EAST INTO PARTS OF
KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA


$$


They always do that for MDT risks.
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Re:

#51 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:28 pm

RL3AO wrote:Think we will see a 45H tornado tomorrow?

15H and higher is a pretty bad situation, 30H and higher is pretty dire...a 45 would be pretty scary, for the sake of the people in the way of this system I hope not.
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Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread

#52 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:28 pm

Really about a 55% chance instead of 45% - some mets wanted to go high:

SPC AC 091723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL-ERN MO...SWRN/SRN
IL...FAR WRN KY...WRN TN...NWRN MS...NRN LA AND MUCH OF AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE MIDWEST SWWD TO THE WRN GULF COAST
REGION...

***A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-MS VLY AND MID-SOUTH THU AFTN/EVE. TORNADOES...INCLUDING A FEW
LONG-TRACKED STRONG VARIETY...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED.***


...ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH/OZARKS INTO THE MID-MS/LWR OH VLYS...
LATEST MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THAT NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS OTLK NEED TO BE MADE. STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS THU
AFTN/NIGHT. ASSOCD SFC CYCLONE...INITIALLY OVER OK...WILL
STRENGTHEN TO A 990 MB LOW AND MOVE NWD INTO IA THU NIGHT. TRAILING
THE LOW...A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL MOVE EWD DURING THE
AFTN...REACHING THE MIDWEST...MID-MS VLY...MID-SOUTH AND SERN TX BY
12Z FRI.

A MULTI-MODE SVR DAY IS LIKELY ON THU IN AND NEAR THE
MDT RISK AREA. STRONG/SVR TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ONGOING THU MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK AND N TX NEWD INTO MO...KS AND AR.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD...AND
BY THU AFTN...60-65F SFC DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE AS FAR
N AS SERN IA AND CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IN. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
AND EFFECTIVELY WEAKENS THE CINH...SFC-BASED QUASI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE...EITHER WITHIN/ NEARBY REMANENT
MORNING ACTIVITY...OR SEPARATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SLY FLOW...RAPID DESTABILIZATION WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR WELL NWD INTO MO...IL AND IN. BUT...THE IMPACTS OF
EARLY DAY ACTIVITY REMAIN UNCERTAIN... ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT OF
THE OTLK AREA. NONETHELESS...VERY STRONG KINEMATICS/FLOW FIELDS
WILL LEAD TO A MARKED SVR RISK EVEN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE MATERIALIZES
IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.

AFTER THE STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
STORMS TO REMAIN DISCRETE WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
AND...TO A LESSER DEGREE PERHAPS NWWD ALONG THE NW-SE ORIENTED
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORN BELT.
OTHERWISE...AN EVENTUAL EVOLUTION TO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE APPEARS
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY EVE.

VERY STG S/SWLY WINDS IN THE LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERE /50-70 KT AT H85
AND 80-110 KT AT H5/ WILL FAVOR BOTH FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS AND THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF QUASI-LINEAR BOW ECHOES ACROSS A BROAD PORTION
OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-MS/OH VLYS
LATER IN THE EVE. BOTH WITH QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR LEWP
EVOLUTIONS...A HELICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT /250-450 MS/S2 0-1 KM SRH/
IN MUCH OF THE MDT RISK AREA AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THERE WILL
BE SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS TORNADOES... SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG
AND LONG-TRACKED.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE LIKELY.

A MOVE INTO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK WAS DISCUSSED. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...HOWEVER...ON THE AFFECT THAT MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE IN
MODULATING THE MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION.
AS A RESULT...THIS
UPDATE TO THE DAY2 OTLK WILL MAINTAIN A STRONGLY WORDED MDT RISK.
THE LATER FCST CYCLES WILL HAVE TIME TO BETTER ASSESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES.

..RACY.. 04/09/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1725Z (1:25PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread

#53 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:29 pm

RL3AO wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Hints of a high risk at 2000Z?

SURROUNDING THE HIGHEST RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTH AND EAST INTO PARTS OF
KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA


$$


They always do that for MDT risks.


I thought they just put the word "moderate" in?
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Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread

#54 Postby RL3AO » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:29 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Hints of a high risk at 2000Z?

SURROUNDING THE HIGHEST RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTH AND EAST INTO PARTS OF
KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA


$$


They always do that for MDT risks.


I thought they just put the word "moderate" in?


The past few moderates I've noticed "highest" in the PWOs. I guess you could always check previous ones.
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#55 Postby RL3AO » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:32 pm

Very very close to the second Day 2 high risk.
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Re:

#56 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:36 pm

RL3AO wrote:Very very close to the second Day 2 high risk.


Yep, some offices and mets wanted to go there but I don't blame them for backing off for now. There is just enough uncertainty on initiation to preclude such at this point, and it is almost impossible to downgrade from day 2 to day 1.

Still, a high risk at 0600Z is quite likely, and almost certain by 1300Z unless things really change.
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#57 Postby RL3AO » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:39 pm

What stuck out to me was they said that a few long-tracked tornadoes can be "expected". Very rare for any outlook, much less a day 2.
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Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread

#58 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:41 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Really about a 55% chance instead of 45% - some mets wanted to go high:


How can you know that. Has there been a radio report ?
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Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread

#59 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:42 pm

Bunkertor wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Really about a 55% chance instead of 45% - some mets wanted to go high:


How can you know that. Has there been a radio report ?


The Day 2 outlook mentions that there was serious discussion of going high risk (and on a day 2, that requires a 60% hatched area).
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#60 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:48 pm

Tornado watch, possibly PDS, coming:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091746Z - 091845Z

TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL AND N
TX.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO
SPREAD NWD...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDED ENEWD FROM THE MAF AREA TO THE
ERN PART OF THE DAL/FTW METROPLEX INTO SERN OK AND SRN AR. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALONG AND S OF WRN
EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGESTS NEW
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BETWEEN 18-20Z AS SURFACE BASED
INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS.

..PETERS.. 04/09/2008


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32040234 32460190 32870071 33479891 33579801 33569701
33409670 32459638 31799713 31499806 31239894 30630119
30910205 31030234 31390240
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