Klotzbach / Gray April Forecast=15/8/4 / ACE=150 / NTC=160

[cycloneye]

Yeah these forecasts aren't going to be totally accurate but they do give a rough idea.

Also of course landfalling system make a difference, we could have a season with below average numberss like 7/4/2 but if the 2 majors make landfall in a heavily populated area the season will be more memorable then a 17/10/6 season which had all the systems go out to sea.

1992 was memorable with only 7 named storms,aka Andrew.

[CrazyC83]

We could have numbers higher than 2005 but if all of the big ones turn to sea, the perception will be a fairly quiet season. But if we have only one major hurricane - and that one being a Cat 5 into a major city like Miami - then things will seem totally different.

[MiamiensisWx]

...and who says it needs to be an intense TC into a large city to be destructive or interesting for case studies? It could be another rapidly intensifying Humberto or a slow moving large Frances/Wilma that causes extensive damage. It could be an Ophelia for the Carolinas. The most deadly aspect of tropical cyclones stems from inland flooding, which often occurs when the system is much weaker over land. It could simply be the remnants that induce inland flooding. I remember TS Gordon 1994's locally heavy precipitation across Broward County, Florida and it was extremely impressive. No one can forget Floyd 1999 and Allison 2001. Another slow-moving tropical storm over Haiti or other Caribbean areas could cause another major disaster. Didn't we have Noel in 2007? I think ANY intense landfall is memorable, regardless of whether it strikes a rural or developed area. "Memorable" depends on how the storm affected you. Personally, Wilma caused far more damage than Frances 2004, though they were equally intense in eastern FL.

Regarding the pattern, I'm not sure as to how you can deduce "recurves" several months away from the current mean 500 mb pattern. You also can't prove that will be another Gulf/FL year. I think we'll gain a better idea of the main formative regions and possible steering in June, and it still shouldn't be taken as the "end for all". In other words, a particular pattern doesn't mean that it's completely "static" every second, so tropical cyclones can take a variety of tracks. I'm far more interested in the ultimate outcome and landfall locations.

For what it's worth, I think we may observe fewer inversions and reduced easterly shear in the deep tropics this year, which may lead to more Cape Verde activity than 2006 and 2007.

I also don't understand CSU's insatiable need to continually increase their numbers. I anticipate an above average season, but I strongly doubt we'll observe more than 14-15 NS.

[OuterBanker]

Land falling section also interesting. The highest risk areas for hurricanes and more than 1 hurricanes are:

Zone 3 38.1 8.4 ( column 1 prob 1 or more H, column prob 2 or more H)

Zone 8 37.0 7.9

Zone 1 34.9 7.0

Zone 6 33.3 6.3

Zone 3 is La, Ms, Al, Pan of Fl.
Zone 8 is Carolina's
Zone 1 is Tx.
Zone 6 is SE Fl.
On average about 5 to 6 pts higher than average (20 to 25%) across all zones.

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html (You will need Excel to open tables)

[Ed Mahmoud]

The most deadly aspect of tropical cyclones stems from inland flooding, which often occurs when the system is much weaker over land.

I know inland fresh water flooding had become the biggest killer in recent decades in the US, but the failure of the levees around New Orleans were related to storm surge, and that was hundreds of deaths, so I'm not certain if the inland fresh water flooding from tropical cyclones in recent decades is still statistically true.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the dry weather in South Texas is indeed signalling the mean ridge position, Texas would have a lower than normal probability of landfalls.

[Blown Away]

What is JB's take on the 2008 season?

[JonathanBelles]

jeez. Its odd to have two big predictions with the same numbers, and then also have our average be the same.

[Derek Ortt]

overall, fresh water flooding is still by far the most deadly aspect of cyclones, including Katrina.

Mitch by itself makes it true. Throw in storms like Gordon, Jeanne, Stan (and yes, Stan did cause the deaths directly from an outer rainband) and it is no comparison

[Ed Mahmoud]

overall, fresh water flooding is still by far the most deadly aspect of cyclones, including Katrina.

Mitch by itself makes it true. Throw in storms like Gordon, Jeanne, Stan (and yes, Stan did cause the deaths directly from an outer rainband) and it is no comparison

Mitch wasn't a US storm (well, not until the very end).

[jinftl]

Even the core of a Cat 1 or 2 moving over a metropolitan area like Miami or Houston would make the season memorable...Wilma brought 'only' Cat 1/scattered Cat 2 conditions to Miami/Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach and still managed to become the 3rd costliest hurricane in U.S. history....over $21 billion in damage from Cat 1/2 conditions effecting 6+ million people!!!

We could have numbers higher than 2005 but if all of the big ones turn to sea, the perception will be a fairly quiet season. But if we have only one major hurricane - and that one being a Cat 5 into a major city like Miami - then things will seem totally different.

[MiamiensisWx]

"Even the core of a Cat 1 or 2 moving over a metropolitan area like Miami or Houston would make the season memorable...Wilma brought 'only' Cat 1/scattered Cat 2 conditions to Miami/Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach and still managed to become the 3rd costliest hurricane in U.S. history....over $21 billion in damage from Cat 1/2 conditions effecting 6+ million people!!!"

I always attempt to emphasize these things in my posts (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=100663&p=1700448&hilit=#p1700448).

[drezee]

1950 13 98.00 11 59.50 8 18.50 243 247
1989 11 66.00 7 31.75 2 9.75 135 130
1999 12 78.50 8 41.00 5 14.25 177 182
2000 14 67.00 8 32.75 3 5.00 116 130


2 out of 4 analog years have major hurricanes hitting the coast


1989 Hugo
1950 King and Dog


also 1999 FLoyd was no thunderstorm...

[Andrew92]

overall, fresh water flooding is still by far the most deadly aspect of cyclones, including Katrina.

Mitch by itself makes it true. Throw in storms like Gordon, Jeanne, Stan (and yes, Stan did cause the deaths directly from an outer rainband) and it is no comparison

Mitch wasn't a US storm (well, not until the very end).

It doesn't matter if it's a US storm or not. It still caused a lot of flooding, a lot of damage, and a death toll in the tens of thousands. Whether it happens in the US, Central America, or Antarctica, that's a tragedy no matter what.

15/8/4....almost on cue with my numbers. Just one named storm off, but hey, we'll see what happens! But as always, remember, IT ONLY TAKES ONE.

-Andrew92

[Ed Mahmoud]

overall, fresh water flooding is still by far the most deadly aspect of cyclones, including Katrina.

Mitch by itself makes it true. Throw in storms like Gordon, Jeanne, Stan (and yes, Stan did cause the deaths directly from an outer rainband) and it is no comparison

Mitch wasn't a US storm (well, not until the very end).

It doesn't matter if it's a US storm or not. It still caused a lot of flooding, a lot of damage, and a death toll in the tens of thousands. Whether it happens in the US, Central America, or Antarctica, that's a tragedy no matter what.

15/8/4....almost on cue with my numbers. Just one named storm off, but hey, we'll see what happens! But as always, remember, IT ONLY TAKES ONE.



-Andrew92

I'm not sure you're reason for your morally superior lecture, as if you need to remind me people killed in other countries are also people.


I had said that the most recent deaths are freshwater statistic in the US might not be valid post Katrina, and someone else mentioned a non-US storm. So I reminded him I was talking US storms.


How about reading up the thread before jumping to conclusions ansd trying to prove how you care next time.?.?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

For me I will not make any conclusions about paths
until there is a 3 day cone out during a storm.
Predictions are very hard to make this far out. Klotzbach
and Gray do an excellent job for predicting months in advance,
but aside from numbers it is very hard to know where a storm
will go until you have a storm and a 3 day cone.

[NDG]

overall, fresh water flooding is still by far the most deadly aspect of cyclones, including Katrina.

Mitch by itself makes it true. Throw in storms like Gordon, Jeanne, Stan (and yes, Stan did cause the deaths directly from an outer rainband) and it is no comparison

Wasn't Katrina's storm surge the deadliest aspect of her, instead of fresh water flooding?

[Andrew92]

Mitch wasn't a US storm (well, not until the very end).

It doesn't matter if it's a US storm or not. It still caused a lot of flooding, a lot of damage, and a death toll in the tens of thousands. Whether it happens in the US, Central America, or Antarctica, that's a tragedy no matter what.

15/8/4....almost on cue with my numbers. Just one named storm off, but hey, we'll see what happens! But as always, remember, IT ONLY TAKES ONE.



-Andrew92

I'm not sure you're reason for your morally superior lecture, as if you need to remind me people killed in other countries are also people.


I had said that the most recent deaths are freshwater statistic in the US might not be valid post Katrina, and someone else mentioned a non-US storm. So I reminded him I was talking US storms.


How about reading up the thread before jumping to conclusions ansd trying to prove how you care next time.?.?

Point taken, and I'm not trying to lecture. I'll admit that maybe my argument was made a little harshly, and I agree, freshwater flooding does cause the most fatalities in the US.

But Mitch just goes to show that it doesn't matter whether or not the storm hits the US....freshwater flooding IS the cause of most deaths in hurricanes, and it can be anywhere. Fifi, Flora, Gordon, and Jeanne were similar instances; at least as far as I know, those storms were deadly where they were due to....freshwater flooding, and all of these cases were away from the US. Fifi because she was over the mountains, Flora because she stalled, Gordon I'm not entirely sure about (runoff from mountains maybe? somebody clue me in), and Jeanne caused major flooding and mudslides into a Haitian port city.

Now I could understand an argument that storm surge causes more deaths than freshwater flooding in a flatter third-world nation (i.e. Bangladesh). But when storms from the Atlantic hit land, they either hit the US which is usually well-warned and well-prepared (note I said usually, as sometimes a storm like Humberto just comes out of nowhere), or they hit mountainous Central America or any of the Caribbean islands, a number of which have substantial peaks (especially Hispaniola) that can cause the devastating floods and mudslides.


And NDG, to answer your question, storm surge DID cause a lot of deaths with Katrina. But IIRC, those deaths were primarily in Mississippi; there were more deaths in New Orleans due to freshwater flooding.

-Andrew92

[hial2]

For me I will not make any conclusions about paths
until there is a 3 day cone out during a storm.
Predictions are very hard to make this far out. Klotzbach
and Gray do an excellent job for predicting months in advance,
but aside from numbers it is very hard to know where a storm
will go until you have a storm and a 3 day cone.

In my opinion, 3 day cones are only good to give a general direction where the storm is heading..Cones (and NHC forecast points) always change,sometimes several times a day.

[tolakram]

These early forecasts have no skill. He should say above, average, or below average and that's about it. The counting of storm numbers and types is silly, will always be silly, and in the end will end up fully discrediting the people who do it.

In my opinion.