Wed., 9th of April 08 till Friday 11th outbreak-thread

[JonathanBelles]

[Bunkertor]

Any updates on Fort Smith? Any confirmations/damage reports?

Yes. Some hours ago i came alongs a site where a shredded compound with a destroyed plane. But i was to busy to read the whole story.

[CrazyC83]

Everything is lifting north now...

[cheezyWXguy]

massive squall/ MCS beginning to form in western texas...and its forecast to move through DFW around 1-3 am. If things continue to progress at this rate, we may be looking at a rough night.

[6SpeedTA95]

ok guys I'm off to bed, I'll either be back in the wee hours of the morning or I'll check in first thing in the morning, be safe everyone

[Bunkertor]

ok guys I'm off to bed, I'll either be back in the wee hours of the morning or I'll check in first thing in the morning, be safe everyone

Sleep well !

3,50 inch hail in a town called Rankin NW-Texas

[CrazyC83]

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1040 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF MINERAL
WELLS TEXAS TO 60 MILES EAST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...WW
181...WW 182...WW 183...

DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL DEVELOP NEWD
ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO S-CNTRL OK OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT IS MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG INVOF OF
WARM FRONT SWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ONGOING TSTMS OVER WRN TX WILL
RAPIDLY SPREAD EWD/NEWD OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. ADDITIONAL TORNADIC STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT
OVER N-CNTRL TX INTO S-CNTRL AND ERN OK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...MEAD/HART


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1040 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF MINERAL
WELLS TEXAS TO 60 MILES EAST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...WW
181...WW 182...WW 183...

DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL DEVELOP NEWD
ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO S-CNTRL OK OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT IS MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG INVOF OF
WARM FRONT SWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ONGOING TSTMS OVER WRN TX WILL
RAPIDLY SPREAD EWD/NEWD OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. ADDITIONAL TORNADIC STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT
OVER N-CNTRL TX INTO S-CNTRL AND ERN OK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...MEAD/HART


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 100337
WOU4

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

TORNADO WATCH 184 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC033-047-131-101100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0184.080410T0340Z-080410T1100Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRAWFORD FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN


OKC005-013-019-023-029-033-049-061-063-067-069-077-079-085-091-
095-099-101-107-111-121-123-127-133-135-137-101100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0184.080410T0340Z-080410T1100Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL COTTON
GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER
LE FLORE LOVE MARSHALL
MCINTOSH MURRAY MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH STEPHENS


TXC009-035-077-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-
193-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-333-337-363-367-397-425-
429-439-485-497-503-101100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0184.080410T0340Z-080410T1100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BOSQUE CLAY
COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE
CORYELL DALLAS DELTA
DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS
ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON
HAMILTON HILL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JACK
JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR
LAMPASAS MILLS MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL
SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT
WICHITA WISE YOUNG


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW4
WW 184 TORNADO AR OK TX 100340Z - 101100Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50W MWL/MINERAL WELLS TX/ - 60E MLC/MCALESTER OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /50ENE ABI - 38SW FSM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

LAT...LON 34009893 36119472 33659472 31549893

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.


Watch 184 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[wx247]

It is going to be a long night. I should be sleeping but I can't help but keep an eye on this stuff!

[RL3AO]

In front of the squall line are some absolutely insane CAPEs.

[Bunkertor]

In front of the squall line are some absolutely insane CAPEs.

Which number is the relevant one according to the sounding ? Or ? What ist your source, please ? I have a sounding for Midland, but thats behind the line.

[RL3AO]

[Bunkertor]

Damn, 5000

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if any those storms will reach SE Texas? It's rather breezy outside.

[Cyclenall]

A guest on Jay Leno just said that she is afraid that there are tornadoes occurring "tonight" in Oklahoma where she lives (Oakville, west of OKC). The population is 50.

Jay then asked; "Do you have a cellar?" and she said "yes, we do go down there and wait until the fright train noise stops".

[Bunkertor]

Damage in Breckenridge

http://cbs11tv.com/slideshows/Breckenri ... 96160.html

[btangy]

After looking at the 21Z SREF guidance, I believe SPC will issue a high risk tomorrow for a small area right around the Mississippi River encompassing the eastern 1/4-1/2 of AR, extreme SE MO, extreme W KY, extreme W TN, and NW chunk of MS. Low level jet will be maximized in this region promoting strong 0-3km helicity >400 and 0-1km helicity >250. Surface cape will be somewhat borderline with 1000-1500 but will be plenty for low topped supercells ahead of the main squall line. There is one caveat, however, and that is all the activity tonight must move out of the region by tomorrow to allow surface heating to generate enough instability.

[Bunkertor]

WFUS54 KSJT 100447
TORSJT
TXC235-451-100515-
/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0038.080410T0446Z-080410T0515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1146 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TOM GREEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN IRION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF
ARDEN...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF MERTZON...MOVING RAPIDLY
EAST AT 52 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
ARDEN BY 1155 PM CDT...
SAN ANGELO BY 1210 AM CDT...

[wx247]

I think the high risk will likely encompass Southern and Eastern Missouri, much of the eastern half of Arkansas, and extreme western Kentucky, Tennessee, and far southwest Illinois.

[Bunkertor]

I make a bet. No high risk at all !

[wx247]

Ok... the winner gets bragging rights!