Wed., 9th of April 08 till Friday 11th outbreak-thread

[Bunkertor]

Ok... the winner gets bragging rights!

OK, normally, i´d say a of liter beer, but as to the distance, a giant show off will do it.

[wx247]

New outlook is out... you win!

I think they are really underdoing things.

[Beam]

Didn't see that one coming. I expected the MDT area to get larger, not smaller, and I was almost positive they'd have a High Risk up at 0600z.

Wonder what's going on.

[Bunkertor]

Didn't see that one coming. I expected the MDT area to get larger, not smaller, and I was almost positive they'd have a High Risk up at 0600z.

Wonder what's going on.

Note: We are still on Swoody 1 which will expire at 12 z . So they shifted the MDT area ewds towards the projected Swoody 2.
As formerly mentioned ongoing developement also depends on surface heating.

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL TX...SCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 182...184...

VALID 100636Z - 100730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 182...184...CONTINUES.

LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RESULTING IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL RESPONSE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN JUST SOUTH OF ABI
OVER COLEMAN COUNTY. CONTINUED DEEPENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOW TRACKS NEWD INTO SCNTRL OK...ALONG
EXISTING QUASI-STATIONARY PORTION OF WARM FRONT. AN EXPANSIVE AND
INTENSE SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...IS
PROGRESSING EWD AT ROUGHLY 45-50KT ACROSS TX AND THIS WILL QUICKLY
SURGE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW184. DAMAGING WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE...THOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY
ACTUALLY SHIFT INTO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL OK/NCNTRL TX NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RETREATING WARM FRONT.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2008


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

30400135 31459986 33779871 34569697 34389610 33829632
33129744 31169861 29830075

[Bunkertor]

NWS Tulsa set all thread levels to significant ( except heavy rain )

[Bunkertor]

Squal near Dallas FW

[gboudx]

Squall line is moving through my area right now. Wind gusts are over 40mph, heavy rain and lightning. Nothing major here. But other parts of the Metroplex are reporting power outages and wind damage.

[Bunkertor]

Squall line is moving through my area right now. Wind gusts are over 40mph, heavy rain and lightning. Nothing major here. But other parts of the Metroplex are reporting power outages and wind damage.

Yes, here is "your" warning. The TorWAR was lifted ten minutes ago. It was travelling to the northeast of DFW... Hope Dirk Nowitzki can sleep. He needs to be fit vs. the Jazz.

869
WUUS54 KFWD 100908
SVRFWD
TXC257-397-101015-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0170.080410T0908Z-080410T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
408 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
KAUFMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
ROCKWALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 AM CDT

* AT 408 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF FATE
TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COMBINE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 63 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
ROYSE CITY...FORNEY...FATE AND CRANDALL BY 415 AM
GRAYS PRAIRIE BY 420 AM
TERRELL...KEMP AND KAUFMAN BY 425 AM
MABANK BY 430 AM

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNING AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.

[Bunkertor]

This Del Rio sounding is worth a look

We see Li´s of -10 and lower + enormous CAPE. But with CINH that negative, initiation of thunderstorms should nearly be ruled out ( correct me if i´m wrong ), but squalline started travelling in that area.

[KWT]

Dlon't know if this was mentioned but theres been more damage from the extreme straight wind gusts, Hampton has cars on roofs and collapsed buildings.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like the heavy storms last night may hold cloud cover back, hence the MDT is held.

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 101022
ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-101815-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WEST TENNESSEE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE WESTERN GULF
COAST NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

THE STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR
YESTERDAY'S AND THIS MORNING'S INTENSE STORMS IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI BY EARLY FRIDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...NOW NEAR TULSA...WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO NEAR DES
MOINES.

A BROAD CURRENT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SPREADING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
OKLAHOMA LOW WILL FEED VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A BELT OF 130 MPH JET STREAM WINDS
SKIRTING THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP NORTH
AND EAST INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS...MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH VERY STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS THAT CHANGE DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT WILL CREATE A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LONG-LIVED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE SUPERCELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND NORTH INTO
ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA FROM OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI
...TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-LIVED
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
THESE MAY YIELD HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
OR TWO THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI.. 04/10/2008

$$

[CrazyC83]

My thinking for today:

The one potential negating factor - cloud cover - may be a huge factor with that powerful squall line. HOWEVER, it accelerated over the night so it should be clear of the initiation zone by 8 or 9 am. It is basically wait and see now. Should clearing take place at mid to late morning across western Arkansas, then discrete supercells should quickly develop, capable of strong to violent tornadoes. That is the big unknown though.

I do agree that 10% is too conservative for the tornado risk; I would have gone 15% but I agree in holding off any high risk.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101156Z - 101300Z

HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS AR AS WARM
FRONT RETREATS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. RESULTANT INCREASE IN
BUOYANCY ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE SUPERCELL AND
TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS SRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NRN
PORTIONS OF SEVERE SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED INTO BOONE COUNTY AR...AND
WILL SOON APPROACH SRN COUNTIES OF SCNTRL MO. WW MAY BE REQUIRED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2008


ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...

37179379 38219193 36729113 36419303

[wx247]

Rain is clearing the MO/KS and AR/OK border at this time. I fully anticipate that it is going to be a long day here. I made it to my classroom, but the flooding here is crazy. It is worse than I have seen it in a very very long time.

[CrazyC83]

The squall line seems to be breaking down.

[CrazyC83]

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 745 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
WEST PLAINS MISSOURI TO 60 MILES NORTH OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 185...WW 186...WW 187...

DISCUSSION...A NARROW WEDGE OF MOISTURE/BUOYANCY HAS SPREAD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MO AHEAD OF NWD DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WHERE SFC DEW
POINTS ARE APPROACHING 60F. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THIS DEVELOPING LINE AS IT SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS SRN MO.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...DARROW


SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 745 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
WEST PLAINS MISSOURI TO 60 MILES NORTH OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 185...WW 186...WW 187...

DISCUSSION...A NARROW WEDGE OF MOISTURE/BUOYANCY HAS SPREAD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MO AHEAD OF NWD DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WHERE SFC DEW
POINTS ARE APPROACHING 60F. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THIS DEVELOPING LINE AS IT SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS SRN MO.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...DARROW


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 101240
WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

TORNADO WATCH 188 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MOC065-067-091-149-153-203-215-229-101600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0188.080410T1245Z-080410T1600Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL
OREGON OZARK SHANNON
TEXAS WRIGHT


ATTN...WFO...SGF...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW8
WW 188 TORNADO MO 101245Z - 101600Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15SSW UNO/WEST PLAINS MO/ - 60N UNO/WEST PLAINS MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM E/W /56WNW ARG - 71ENE SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

LAT...LON 36549269 37619259 37619113 36549125

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.


Watch 188 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[TexasStooge]

My neighborhood has lost power...for about an hour, but other than that, me and my family are OK.

Just when we dodged that one vicious storm that tore through areas west and north of DFW last night, that squall line made sure no city was left out.

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the 1300Z. I'd expect the MDT to be enlarged (especially to the west), with a 15% tornado risk.