Serious question

[TSmith274]

As was mentioned on 870am here in New Orleans... should we even pay attention to Dr. Gray anymore? Seriously, this guy has gotten it more wrong in recent years than I would have ever imagined possible. Perhaps we should have monkies throwing darts at a board for our predictions. What other science allows for adjustments when the scientist realizes he might just be off a bit in his predictions mid-experiment? I, for one, have very little confidence in long term activity forecasts. I'm beginning to agree that Dr. Gray is a man with the best of intentions... both for the public and his field... but he is beginning to make himself look silly with these woefully innacurate pre-season predictions. Give me your thoughts.

[hial2]

Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term, and usually refers to estimation of time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction.

Wikipedia
I don't think Dr Gray ever claimed to be an oracle

The only things etched in stone are death and taxes (less than a week away! )

[Frank2]

In answer to your question, I'd say no - here in South Florida, we are still under what amounts to unnecessary water restrictions, because professional meteorologists, out of their own fear and lack of faith, convinced the South Florida Water Management District to release vast amounts (3-4 feet) of Lake Okeechobee water just prior to the 2006 hurricane season, using "The sky is falling!" method, by "predicting":

"You'll have another Katrina catastrophe on your hands, because the Lake Okeechobee levees will fail under the stress of this season's hurricanes!"

"If that happens, you'll end up with countless lawsuits - better release all of the water you can, while you can!"

"Your be branded as being negligent if you don't release large amounts of Lake water - now!"

And on and on, so, unwisely (and, I'm convinced, against God's Will), the Board release so much water, based solely on the fear reaction of the professionals they contract to give them advice, that we are now under mandatory water restrictions - which would not have happened, if they had not reacted out of fear.

As often heard in church, the evil one often uses unfounded or irrational fear (also known as rumor) as a way to force humans to make the wrong decisions - I'd say that also applies to much of what is happening elsewhere in our country and the world, but, I'm not one to make political comments (especially since they are not allowed here). As one who's proven this to be true by my own mistakes in life (which were also based on fear), I'd have to agree with those in church...

The same could be said of those many dire "JB" comments (often referred to as forecasts), that do nothing more than incite fear (and raise gasoline prices)...

Anyway, as one who would personally encounter Dr. Gray in the early days of his "annual forecasts", I never had the feeling in my heart that it was a good idea (and neither did the Directors of that time at the NHC or HRD) - as the Bible says on the topic of worrying about what tomorrow might bring, "Do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of it's own".

Frank

[feederband]

As was mentioned on 870am here in New Orleans... should we even pay attention to Dr. Gray anymore? Seriously, this guy has gotten it more wrong in recent years than I would have ever imagined possible. Perhaps we should have monkies throwing darts at a board for our predictions. What other science allows for adjustments when the scientist realizes he might just be off a bit in his predictions mid-experiment? I, for one, have very little confidence in long term activity forecasts. I'm beginning to agree that Dr. Gray is a man with the best of intentions... both for the public and his field... but he is beginning to make himself look silly with these woefully innacurate pre-season predictions. Give me your thoughts.

Well someone has to give us at least a idea on what to expect...If not him then who should do it? I mean he takes what he see's and gives us his best prediction...Who's going to win the superbowl next year?

[hial2]

Well someone has to give us at least a idea on what to expect...If not him then who should do it? I mean he takes what he see's and gives us his best prediction...Who's going to win the superbowl next year?

THE MIAMI DOLPHINS

[Frank2]

That's not a good comparison - a football game does not compare with something that can adversly affect the lives of millions...

Having worked for meteorologists, and saying this will all due respect, since many were also good friends of mine (and still are), many (with some exceptions) in the field of science are not known for their faith in God - sadly, it seems that many of them have only a faith in the field of science that they have come to know, and, are often subject to making assumptions based on that knowledge alone...

As far as predicting what will happen months from now, as Einstein himself once said, "I never think of the future. It comes soon enough."

[Jam151]

Maybe some of us should realize Dr Gray isnt the one even making the forecasts anymore.

[feederband]

That's not a good comparison - a football game does not compare with something that can adversly affect the lives of millions...

Having worked for meteorologists, and saying this will all due respect, since many were also good friends of mine (and still are), many (with some exceptions) in the field of science are not known for their faith in God - sadly, it seems that many of them have only a faith in the field of science that they have come to know, and, are often subject to making assumptions based on that knowledge alone...

As far as predicting what will happen months from now, as Einstein himself once said, "I never think of the future. It comes soon enough."

What do you mean by statement I bolded?

[feederband]

That's not a good comparison - a football game does not compare with something that can adversly affect the lives of millions...

Its just a prediction thats my point.

But if the Dolphins were to win that would affect my life...

[KWT]

In the end if you don't try and improve you will never improve. I suppose the media may give a little too much attention but as long as the general public know these are nothing more than educated guesses there isn't any harm in reporting about them IMO.

[Frank2]

Feederband, from my own experience with those I've known in the natural sciences and in the medical field, it seems that some do develop their own lofty opinion, believing that their knowledge is absolute, to the point that they feel their knowledge often superceeds God's infinite wisdom - they forget that if it were God's permitting Will, they could bump their head 5 minutes from now, and all of that knowledge could be lost within seconds...

It's not a well liked comment, for sure, but, from what I've seen over many years with scientists in several fields, this sometimes is true - as said on the television program MASH, it's know as the "Charles Emerson Winchester III" way of thinking...

As you can tell, it does bother me that some in meteorology do believe they can predict months in advance what will happen - to the point that they scare the public. On Monday, our own local NWSFO did not predict the widespread rainfall we received that afternoon, so, to try to predict what will happen months in advance only amounts to the old trick of someone trying to predict the future for 25 cents - as I was often told at the NHC, these folks don't mind, since they know that they will always be correct - or wrong - at least 50% of the time...

[feederband]

Feederband, from my own experience with those I've known in the natural sciences and in the medical field, it seems that some do develop their own lofty opinion, believing that their knowledge is absolute, to the point that they feel their knowledge often superceeds God's infinite wisdom - they forget that if it were God's permitting Will, they could bump their head 5 minutes from now, and all of that knowledge could be lost within seconds...

It's not a well liked comment, for sure, but, from what I've seen over many years with scientists in several fields, this sometimes is true - as said on the television program MASH, it's know as the "Charles Emerson Winchester III" way of thinking...

As you can tell, it does bother me that some in meteorology do believe they can predict months in advance what will happen - to the point that they scare the public. On Monday, our own local NWSFO did not predict the widespread rainfall we received that afternoon, so, to try to predict what will happen months in advance only amounts to the old trick of someone trying to predict the future for 25 cents - as I was often told at the NHC, these folks don't mind, since they know that they will always be correct - or wrong - at least 50% of the time...

Well if it all about gods will then Grays forcast is part of that...For that fact nothing really matters anyway because it all part of his will anyway...There is alot of work and study's put into these predictions...Now how a person takes these predictions will vary...I for one read into like a prediction on who will win the next superbowl...Some of it makes since some don't then I add my opion and walk away...The media will hype a turtle crossing the road thats their job...When they predict any weather there are many varibles that go into the forcast...Now thats not to say that all the varibles may change in short notice which will make the orginal forcast void....

[cycloneye]

TSmith274,to answer your question,only look at what the forecasters from all the private firms (Not only from Colorado State University) and NOAA are saying in a general way to see what is their science behind their forecasts,but the important thing is to be prepared for anything the season has instore for any given area.It only takes one to do all the damage to your location.In other words,dont follow the numbers too much,but when they form,where will they go is the most important thing.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Speaking of water restrictions:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-flpwate ... 5679.story

And check out this story about Gray and the predictions:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... 4008.story

[wxman57]

Just a reminder - Dr. Gray isn't making the forecast now, Phil Klotzbach is the author. Don't infer chances of being hit from a prediction of the number of named storms. There's little correlation.

[Aquawind]

Woah.. We have something called reality and facts..humans are working on understanding them and discussion is brought about by someones descisions(forecast) and debate that follows. Wether they think they are above your god or not is your personal problem. I DO NOT THINK YOU NEED TO BE GOD FEARING TO BE A GOOD OR BAD FORECASTER.. I have worked with many meteorologists as well Frank and your interpretation of the seasonal forecating is clearly prejudice! Your religious rant and generalization is disgusting and rude!

Now..weather the seasonal forecasts should be done is rediciulious.. OF COURSE IT SHOULD. But the information and numbers given do not need to be hyped via the media outlets. Combine that with the fact that most people cannot understand the forecasts enough to make logical descisions about thier personal lives and their you have your problem.

[Frank2]

Admin, perhaps this thread needs to be locked...

Aquawind's post is typical for an atheist - folks like him use the "rant is disgusting and rude" term frequently and often to try to defend their non-beliefs - all I can say, as someone who is far from perfect - one day they'll find out for themselves - that's a guarantee...

My only point is that we here in South Florida would not be suffering a "drought" if not for the meteorologists under contract to the SFWMD, who scared the Agency's Board into dumping 3-4 feet of Lake Okeechobee water in the early Summer of 2006...

Now THAT'S disgusting...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe it is somewhat useful to insurance and emergency managers, but since the best that can be hope for at this point, even with a reasonably accurate pre-season forecast, what areas might be favored for a hit, not what area will or will not be hit, there is limited usefulness to the general public. But hurricanes attract attention.


I'm sure it is being done, just not published in the mainstream media, is long term agricultural forecasts. They are a lot more useful, if correct.


About belief in a Supreme Being, my personal view, it is better for the person involved, to have a belief, but it shouldn't affect their forecast abilities.

And the past couple of years of forecasts from most sources for hurricanes should be enough to keep forecasters from feeling too high and mighty.

[Aquawind]

bashing forecasters because they are not religious is rude alright..

[Ed Mahmoud]

Admin, perhaps this thread needs to be locked...

Aquawind's post is typical - they use the "rant is disgusting and rude" term to try to defend their atheistic views...

Now THAT'S disgusting - and rude...

Now lets not get too upset. While that post could have used some spell checking, and the poster doesn't share your religious views, you were the one who brought belief in God into the thread. Now, I don't think your post was disgusting and rude, but you shouldn't be surprised when people of a different theological viewpoint disagree.