EC Trough Remains

[Derek Ortt]

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.html

at 500mb, there is still a weak trough over the EC. Lets hope this pattern continues so that thse systems do in fact miss the EC. It is a long way off; however, this has been a persistent pattern and as we found out in 1995, this pattern does take a long time to change

[rainstorm]

yeah, no sign at all of the bermuda high. jb and dr gray may be busting on their prediction of east coast cane hits

[Colin]

Yeah... if this does remain, the EC can breathe a sigh of relief...

[ColdFront77]

A trough theoretically can only stay in one place so long.

[rainstorm]

actually,
jb and dr gray have been predicting east coast cane hits in 2000, 01,02,03. the trough has been persistent going on 4 years now. if there are no ec cane hits this season, they will have to drastically overhaul their forecast methods.

[ColdFront77]

If the trough was remaining in place off the east coast, then it would not be possible for systems to move basicallly northwest to southeastern over the eastern United States at times during all these months.

[Binary_Interaction]

yeah, no sign at all of the bermuda high. jb and dr gray may be busting on their prediction of east coast cane hits

Actually, there has been a Bermuda High offshore this year. The trough is inland a little ways, while the Bermuda High has generally been anchored through the Bahamas and up towards North Carolina. Here is a current shot of what is going on SLP-wise:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_00.gif
Currently, the high is well offshore due to an approaching area of low pressure. If we are to truly maximize this year's EC landfall potential, the seemingly frequent amount of low pressure passages along the EC will need to decrease some.

If Augsut and September show a decrease in the amount of troughiness along the EC, I'd be very concerned about one or more EC landfall. Why? Notice how the Bermuda High and the Azores High have been elongated east-west this year. If one remembers the previous years, their was a very strong Azores High with a LARGE, LARGE gap of low pressure of low pressure from 50-60W. No wonder most of the CV storms that we had didn't even get close to the Caribbean. We haven't seen that as much so far this season. What will count, once again, is what happens during August and September.

[Colin]

Thanks for the analysis, B_I...

[rainydaze]

Could you explain how the current position of the Bermuda High will affect Southeastern Florida from like Palm Beach County and southward. Also what would a change in position also mean for us.
Thanks

[Tip]

In the short term the east coast trough will pulsate as in reaction to a western ridge that is gathering strength. The GFS and the European models are forecasting a sharpening of the east coast trough later this week. And beyond that the GFS has another deepening of the trough around day 8. However as the previous poster said, it really doesn't count until the historical hurricane trend line ramps up in early August.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180s.gif

[rainstorm]

the trough just wont go away

[wxman57]

I don't see much "trough protection" there. Take a look at these 4 panels of the GFS. I used the 06hr to show precip areas. Look at the low-level flow, the 850mb and the 700mb flow. I certainly don't see any protection there for the east coast, and in particular for Florida and the central to eastern Gulf. The low-level mean circulation would take any storm in the lower tropics right toward the southeast U.S. or estern Gulf. That east coast trof is pretty far up the coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _006.shtml

[ColdFront77]

I am not surprised to hear you say that, wxman.

As I alluded to in a post above... the trough hasn't stayed in place (usually doesn't) for that long.

[Thunder44]

The local meterologist here was talking abou it earlier tonight. Why do you it's been so hot along the east coast the past week or so?

[ColdFront77]

Absolutely right. A ridge is in place across the eastern United States bringing very warm and humid air up the eastern seaboard, to the Northeast and New England. Boston and surrounding locations had highs in the low 90's yesterday.

A trough would bring down cooler, drier air from the northwest across the eastern states.

[Tip]

While there may be an eastern ridge in place now, it is transient. The global models are calling for a return of the eastern trough latter this week and an end to the heat wave in the NE.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif