Klotzbach / Gray April Forecast=15/8/4 / ACE=150 / NTC=160

[Decomdoug]

15/8/4 - Well that should push the price of gasoline up another $0.20 God help us if we get a TS in the GOM. Even if it goes into northern Mexico we'll feel the effects.

[hial2]

15/8/4 - Well that should push the price of gasoline up another $0.20 God help us if we get a TS in the GOM. Even if it goes into northern Mexico we'll feel the effects.

Yes Decomdoug, you could say the price of gas would go up like a Bullitt...

[Ixolib]

overall, fresh water flooding is still by far the most deadly aspect of cyclones, including Katrina.

Well, that's a bit arguable on Katrina's part.

Certainly, it was "fresh" (sorta) water that over-topped and/or breached the levees in N.O., but it was absolutely, completely, and inarguably saltwater storm surge that caused the event in the first place.

Elsewhere along the coast, freshwater flooding – in its truest sense – was not at all an issue with Katrina. Same thing with the after-shock caused by RITA shortly thereafter. Might have been fresh (sorta) water that did the flooding, but it was initially pushed wherever it went by storm surge.

Now, if 'ya wanna talk freshwater flooding, no doubt that mountainous areas suffer greatly with tropical systems and their rain, and therefore, that impact is caused completely and absolutely by freshwater flooding and landslides.

[NDG]

overall, fresh water flooding is still by far the most deadly aspect of cyclones, including Katrina.

Well, that's a bit arguable on Katrina's part.

Certainly, it was "fresh" (sorta) water that over-topped and/or breached the levees in N.O., but it was absolutely, completely, and inarguably saltwater storm surge that caused the event in the first place.

Elsewhere along the coast, freshwater flooding – in its truest sense – was not at all an issue with Katrina. Same thing with the after-shock caused by RITA shortly thereafter. Might have been fresh (sorta) water that did the flooding, but it was initially pushed wherever it went by storm surge.

Now, if 'ya wanna talk freshwater flooding, no doubt that mountainous areas suffer greatly with tropical systems and their rain, and therefore, that impact is caused completely and absolutely by freshwater flooding and landslides.

I also want to make the correction, that the water that broke through the levees in Orleans, St. Bernard & Plaquemines Parish in SE LA with Katrina was 100% saltwater storm surge, it was not fresh water (good sign it was saltwater was all the vegetation that died & corrosion around). Even the water spilling in from Lake Ponchantrain was from the storm surge, which was the reason the Lake's level was so high, Lake Ponchartrain (brakish water) is like a Bay where tides come in and go from gulf, not at all like an enclosed inland fresh water lake like Lake Okeechobee.
Now, most of the flooding in Metairie & Kenner (East Jefferson Parish) was due to the rainfall flooding, the pumps were turned off, so there was no where for the flooding waters to go, their levees luckely never broke.

[Derek Ortt]

hold on,

I said including Katrina's surge flooding and deaths, freshwater flooding is still the greatest cause of death in hurricanes. Katrina's nearly 1500 surge deaths are still very small in comparison to the number of freshwater deaths overall (about 5% of the overall total)

[NDG]

Ahh OK, you make sense now that you explained your statement better.

[Andrew92]

Ahh, now I understand the whole Katrina thing.

Plus, I recently watched some older clips of TWC hurricane coverage in the 90's on YouTube. Some of them indicated that storm surge really wasn't the big problem with a lot of hurricanes at the time except Opal. Although one or two of those videos indicated Hugo didn't really have a storm surge, which I don't agree with because I believe that storm had a 20-foot storm surge. Or maybe the storm surge wasn't responsible for a lot of the deaths in South Carolina.

In any event, all that really goes to show is that we have probably indeed prepared better for the storm surge but keep underestimating the rainfall. Since then, Katrina notwithstanding, numerous other storms have had decent storm surges, IIRC (Isabel, Ivan, Rita) that have cause SOME of the deaths related to them. However, even in the cases of Isabel and Ivan, I think those storms primarily caused deaths due to freshwater flooding (from what I've seen I don't think Rita caused deaths by freshwater flooding, and somebody please correct me if I'm wrong).

And that's still just a small sample size, and doesn't even include the other recent biggies for freshwater flooding, Allison, Floyd, Jeanne, Stan, and Mitch. And I know there are others from beyond the last 10 years as well. At least for the US storms, people there were ready for the surge and winds; but nobody was ready for the flooding.

-Andrew92

[Nimbus]

This report said a low shear environmental trend was a primary factor that would increase the chance for tropical storm formation.

Anyone know how accurate these shear trend forecasts are three months out?

Certainly knowing in advance that this seasons convection would be unhindered by shear would be valuable knowledge.

[skywarn]

What is JB's take on the 2008 season?

See below. He has yet to release his landfall predictions.

" Meanwhile, meteorologist Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather has predicted 12 or 13 tropical storms will form and produce three or four hurricanes and one major hurricane in 2008. That's fewer storms than the CSU forecasters predict but still above-average activity," he said. "

http://www.dailyindia.com/show/230869.p ... ve-average

One interesting note in CSU's April forecast is that the numbers may even be higher come June:
" Our final April statistical model calls for a hyper-active season with an NTC of 190 (Table 10). Due to the uncertainty with current ENSO conditions, we do not feel confident enough to raise our forecast that high at this point, however, if current trends in the Atlantic persist, there is a possibility that the forecast could be increased more in early
June." (page 22)

[RL3AO]

If they end up predicting an 18 NS season and they bomb the forecast...oh boy.

[HURRICANELONNY]

"Other conditions are also in place that could reduce the upper-level winds over the Atlantic, which can prevent a hurricane from strengthening".
That was posted in that Dailey India paper about JB/Grey forecast. Doesn't that statement contradict itself?

[skywarn]

"Other conditions are also in place that could reduce the upper-level winds over the Atlantic, which can prevent a hurricane from strengthening".
That was posted in that Dailey India paper about JB/Grey forecast. Doesn't that statement contradict itself?

That statement was a quote by Keith Blackwell, a meteorologist at the Coastal Weather Research Center at the University of South Alabama on his take of the 2008 season.

[Ed Mahmoud]

"Other conditions are also in place that could reduce the upper-level winds over the Atlantic, which can prevent a hurricane from strengthening".
That was posted in that Dailey India paper about JB/Grey forecast. Doesn't that statement contradict itself?

Weaker upper level winds, ie, weaker shear, usually means more TC activity.

[Recurve]

What do people think of season forecasts with these factors in mind?

-- Generally high ocean heat content in recent years favors more TC storm formation
-- Intense hurricanes require an ideal combination of factors, so they can't be accurately predicted based on the factors that influence overall season activity -- except if a whole season has low shear/very hot ocean/low SAL, it is logical to assume a few more intense TCs?

Because of all the variation in factors, seasonal forecasts can be way off on numbers of storms/ hurricanes/majors, even if one or two factors are predicted pretty accurately. Oceanic heat content is the main factor for cyclogenisis and shear is the main factor in TC inhibition (yes?). Ocean temps can be predicted and measured and are fairly stable, but shear seems pretty transient and hard to predict.

Could there be seasonal patterns that produces a lot of decaying fronts off the east coast (or in the gulf?) that seed TD development, and that might have more influence than other factors?

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'll tell you one thing. The Azores High was very strong last year and pushed most storms into Mexico. In fact they broke an all time record for 2 Cat 5's making land fall. This year so far the Azores High is very weak. Leaving the SST's out there very High and the SAL very low. If this continues. There could be a very active Cape Verde season. Where they will go? Nobody knows. But I think there will be alot more fishes. Which is fine with me.

[Duffy1966]

I'll tell you one thing. The Azores High was very strong last year and pushed most storms into Mexico. In fact they broke an all time record for 2 Cat 5's making land fall. This year so far the Azores High is very weak. Leaving the SST's out there very High and the SAL very low. If this continues. There could be a very active Cape Verde season. Where they will go? Nobody knows. But I think there will be alot more fishes. Which is fine with me.

Fish Storms are boring...no one pays attention, there's no excitement

[Cyclenall]

I'll tell you one thing. The Azores High was very strong last year and pushed most storms into Mexico. In fact they broke an all time record for 2 Cat 5's making land fall. This year so far the Azores High is very weak. Leaving the SST's out there very High and the SAL very low. If this continues. There could be a very active Cape Verde season. Where they will go? Nobody knows. But I think there will be alot more fishes. Which is fine with me.

Fish Storms are boring...no one pays attention, there's no excitement

That's right, how many people are still talking about Hurricane Helen from 2006? Nobody, because it was a fish storm.

[MiamiensisWx]

Fish Storms are boring...no one pays attention, there's no excitement

Most people tend to focus on tropical cyclones when their area may be affected, which explains the lack of attention given to recurving systems away from land masses. All residents in these areas and other locations monitor definite threats more closely than recurving "fish". It doesn't matter whether you're in the islands, Bermuda, Central America, Mexico, or the CONUS. People may not always want a strike on land, but they monitor possible land threats more closely and prudently than the "fish" tropical cyclones. It's a natural aspect of human interests. Most of the members here are property owners or residents, so it is obvious that the interests are geared toward landfalling tropical cyclones.

Regarding -removed-, although I personally would prefer no landfalls, I can understand the desire to experience the actual storm. Many people who express strong desires for landfalls are storm chasers such as Mark Sudduth, Mike Theiss, et al. There is a significant difference between "wanting landfalls" close to your location and an actual desire for the aftermath (including death and destruction) that tropical cyclones unfortunately inflict on populated land masses. The latter desire is unacceptable, unlike the former -removed- which comprises the vast majority of -removed-. Additionally, many chasers do not necessarily wish for a CONUS landfall; they frequently travel to other countries and locations where a landfall is plausible. The data gathered by chasers can be very important for future preparedness, scientific studies, emergency management, climatological data, and public safety. I can definitely appreciate those aspects and it does lend some understanding regarding "-removed-".

My main beef is when -removed- (whether pro-landfall or anti-landfall) influences forecasts and analyses on this board, which we observe for every single system. It's detrimental to the forums' mission for accurate information. This site is dedicated to the people, so it is the intended mission of the posters and participants to provide unbiased, objective analyses for the safety and meteorological knowledge of others.

[RL3AO]

You wrote a three paragraph answer for someone who probably won't read it?

[hial2]

I don't think you understand...there's definitely an adrenaline "rush" when a t/c is forecasted to be in your neighborhood..Adrenaline is a hormone and some (most) of us can get "hooked" on its effects..effects that don't occur when a cat 5 is hitting say Nicaragua..I remember getting hyped around the time that the Jerry Lewis telethon came on since that was prime-time for t/cyclones
Fortunately, at this point in my life I'm "off the junk"...I'll get my "jollies" vicariously through the younger members..