NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- wyq614
- Category 3
- Posts: 827
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2007 12:32 am
- Location: Beijing, China (Hometown: Qingdao, China, 36.06N 120.43E)
- Contact:
NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)
00:00z position - 8.4N 147.5E
According to the ECMWF, it is possible that 99W becomes 02W in the future and finally make a landfall on Guangdong Province, China.
Last edited by senorpepr on Fri Apr 18, 2008 8:38 pm, edited 10 times in total.
Reason: Adjusted to reflect JMA downgrade to svr trop strm
Reason: Adjusted to reflect JMA downgrade to svr trop strm
0 likes
- Matt-hurricanewatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 11649
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
- Location: Portland,OR
- Contact:
-
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
- Age: 40
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re: NWPAC: 扰动99W (Invest 99W)
ECMWF has been developing this for the last 8 runs or so. The lastest 00z run today has the LPA crossing the Philippines and then intensifying into quite a strong system in the South China Sea. If indeed this does develop and get named by the JMA it will be the first offical tropical storm of the year in the northern hemisphere if I'm not mistaken. (Tropical storm 01W from January doesn't count because JTWC is not official.)
0 likes
-
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
- Age: 40
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
99W has unpoofed itself and has been upgraded to FAIR by JTWC.
ABPW10 PGTW 130100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/130100Z-130600ZAPR2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N
132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BISLIG, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SUSPECT AREA DEPICT WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 4 MB IN EASTERN
MINDANAO. A 2247Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
ECMWF still going for development over the South China Sea and making landfall over Guangdong as a tropical storm/depression.
ABPW10 PGTW 130100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/130100Z-130600ZAPR2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N
132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BISLIG, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SUSPECT AREA DEPICT WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 4 MB IN EASTERN
MINDANAO. A 2247Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
ECMWF still going for development over the South China Sea and making landfall over Guangdong as a tropical storm/depression.
0 likes
Re: NWPAC: 扰动99W (Invest 99W)
I am not surprised
I have been testing a new vorticity tracking algorithm and it has been indicating for a few days that this should go ahead and develop
I have been testing a new vorticity tracking algorithm and it has been indicating for a few days that this should go ahead and develop
0 likes
- Category 5
- Category 5
- Posts: 10074
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sun Feb 11, 2007 10:00 pm
- Location: New Brunswick, NJ
- Contact:
Re: NWPAC: 扰动99W (Invest 99W)
This thing has unbelieveable convection on it. Is there a radar link for the Philippines?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest