2008 Severe Weather Thread

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baygirl_1
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread

#441 Postby baygirl_1 » Fri Apr 04, 2008 7:31 pm

Well, now my lovely little corner of the Gulf Coast is under a tornado watch:
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 550 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 164. WATCH NUMBER 164 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
550 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 165...WW 166...
DISCUSSION...STORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
COMPOSITE-OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SSEWD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES/BOWS AS MID LEVEL JET PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL
ROTATION.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...EVANS

There was a tornado warning about an hour ago for Washington County, AL and Green County, MS, but that was cancelled a little while ago. We're watching an approaching line of storms in MS, but, fortunately, none have shown any indication of being tornadic, yet. Here's a link to our radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mob&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
My sister in Auburn is getting hail in a nasty storm up there. They were under a tornado warning, too, because radar indicated the storm had rotation. Fortunately, there doesn't appear to have been an actual tornado or any damage.
I've been tracking my niece and her husband as they're en route to Florida from Virginia in their plane. They've been working their way around storms, but look to be clear of them now. It's a rough day for flying in the Southeast!
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread

#442 Postby baygirl_1 » Fri Apr 04, 2008 7:45 pm

Well, here we go:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
740 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT
* AT 737 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DEER
PARK...OR ABOUT 14 MILES EAST OF LEAKESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CITRONELLE AND 7 MILES NORTH OF SIDNEY BY 750 PM CDT...
7 MILES SOUTH OF TOPTON AND 8 MILES NORTH OF PINEOLA BY 810 PM
CDT...
FAIRFORD BY 825 PM CDT...
MALCOLM...CALVERT...MCINTOSH AND 7 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT VERNON BY
830 PM CDT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE OBSCURING THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE
PLACE.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread

#443 Postby MississippiHurricane » Fri Apr 04, 2008 9:47 pm

The Jackson area got slammed today. I was on my way to the bank and happened to have my police scanner in my car.......tuned to the ham band and then the weather band. Heard of a tornado warning. At the time the sky turned Green. I took the next exit on the interstate and burned rubber to head back to work. About 1 mile from work the winds got VERY strong so strong signs were blowing over. I was driving my plymouth acclaim and didnt want to get blown over. Anyway i flew into the shop then it really hit sideways rain and all. After a few mins the rain let up and i could hear a noise like an airplane coming over.........but longer. Went out side my shop door didnt see anything but the tops of a few trees blowing around pretty hard. The noise went on for 30-40 seconds then went away. In North Jackson Watson Quality Ford, their doors in the shop got sucked out and I believe 75 cars were damaged. Along with stop lights out across the whole metro area and trees down everywhere. At last check 93k people without power..........might not get it back until POSSIBLY Sunday Night or Monday. http://www.wapt.com/news/index.html

Storm reports: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/cgi-bin/pro ... &version=0
Public Info statement: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/cgi-bin/pro ... &version=0

The irony? Under my uniform shirt was a "certified storm spotter" t-shirt I JUST happened to wear.
Last edited by MississippiHurricane on Fri Apr 04, 2008 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#444 Postby jasons2k » Fri Apr 04, 2008 10:20 pm

Watch 167 may be the longest watch (geographically) I've ever seen - Lafayette, LA to Macon, GA is a LONG stretch for a watch box.
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#445 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Apr 05, 2008 2:10 pm

At least one confirmed tornado earlier today in Lenoir County, about 6 miles NE of Pink Hill. Rated an EF0 by the NWS in Newport. There is still the chance for tornadoes and my NOAA Weather Radio woke me up twice last night. It did exactly what it was supposed to, so I'm happy.

0800 6 NE PINK HILL LENOIR NC 3512 7767 PRELIMINARY NWS STORM SURVEY RATING OF EFO IN THE JONESTOWN/NOBLES MILL AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 11 TO ROUTE 258. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO OUTBUILDINGS AND ROOFS OCCURRED ALONG (MHX)


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
253 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SMITHS
CROSSROADS...OR ABOUT 11 MILES EAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
SMITHS CROSSROADS BY 300 PM...
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#446 Postby RL3AO » Mon Apr 07, 2008 11:11 am

Northern Michigan being upgraded to "see text". :D

Image
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#447 Postby RL3AO » Sat Apr 12, 2008 12:42 am

Looks like the next chance of svr wx will be next Thursday or Friday. Still too early to see how big it will be.
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread

#448 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 12, 2008 11:03 am

Image
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread

#449 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 12, 2008 11:04 am

Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN MARYLAND
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
WALLOPS VIRGINIA TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS THE LOW LEVELS
DESTABILIZE VIA DAYTIME HEATING. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...AND 50 KT FLOW WITHIN A FEW
THOUSAND FT OF THE GROUND WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR BOWS/SUPERCELLS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25055.


...THOMPSON


SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN MARYLAND
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
WALLOPS VIRGINIA TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS THE LOW LEVELS
DESTABILIZE VIA DAYTIME HEATING. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...AND 50 KT FLOW WITHIN A FEW
THOUSAND FT OF THE GROUND WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR BOWS/SUPERCELLS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25055.


...THOMPSON


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 121551
WOU1

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC009-019-037-039-045-047-122200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0201.080412T1555Z-080412T2200Z/

MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALVERT DORCHESTER SOMERSET
ST. MARYS WICOMICO WORCESTER


VAC001-025-036-053-057-073-081-093-095-097-101-103-111-115-117-
119-127-131-133-149-159-175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-
670-700-710-730-735-740-800-810-830-122200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0201.080412T1555Z-080412T2200Z/

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK BRUNSWICK CHARLES CITY
DINWIDDIE ESSEX GLOUCESTER
GREENSVILLE ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY
KING AND QUEEN KING WILLIAM LANCASTER
LUNENBURG MATHEWS MECKLENBURG
MIDDLESEX NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND
SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX
WESTMORELAND YORK


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS EMPORIA
FRANKLIN HAMPTON HOPEWELL
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK PETERSBURG
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK
VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG


ANZ533-534-537-630-631-632-650-652-654-656-122200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0201.080412T1555Z-080412T2200Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA

COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM

ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW1
WW 201 SEVERE TSTM MD VA CW 121555Z - 122200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25N WAL/WALLOPS VA/ - 55WSW ORF/NORFOLK VA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /4SE SBY - 48WSW ORF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25055.

LAT...LON 38277418 36597584 36597837 38277676

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
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#450 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Apr 12, 2008 1:16 pm

Severe T-storm Watch just issued for Eastern NC, including my area.

Code: Select all

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 202 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC013-015-017-019-029-031-041-047-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-
073-079-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-107-117-127-129-131-133-137-
139-141-143-147-155-163-165-177-183-185-187-191-195-130000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0202.080412T1810Z-080413T0000Z/

NC
.    NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEAUFORT             BERTIE              BLADEN
BRUNSWICK            CAMDEN              CARTERET
CHOWAN               COLUMBUS            CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND           CURRITUCK           DARE
DUPLIN               EDGECOMBE           FRANKLIN
GATES                GREENE              HALIFAX
HARNETT              HERTFORD            HOKE
HYDE                 JOHNSTON            JONES
LENOIR               MARTIN              NASH
NEW HANOVER          NORTHAMPTON         ONSLOW
PAMLICO              PASQUOTANK          PENDER
PERQUIMANS           PITT                ROBESON
SAMPSON              SCOTLAND            TYRRELL
WAKE                 WARREN              WASHINGTON
WAYNE                WILSON
$$
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#451 Postby RL3AO » Sat Apr 12, 2008 2:44 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

NCC079-147-122000-
/O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-080412T2000Z/
GREENE NC-PITT NC-
340 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
PITT AND NORTHERN GREENE COUNTIES...

AT 337 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF TORNADO PRODUCING
STORMS...LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FOUNTAIN TO CASTORIA TO
SHINE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FARMVILLE TO 11 MILES NORTH
OF LA GRANGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THE PUBLIC REPORTED A
FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR THE WAYNE AND GREENE COUNTY LINE AT 333 PM.

TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
FALKLAND...LIZZIE...BRUCE AND BELL ARTHUR BY 345 PM EDT...
MAURY AND BELL ARTHUR BY 350 PM EDT...
BETHEL...STATON AND HOUSE BY 355 PM EDT...
STOKES BY 400 PM EDT...
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#452 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Apr 12, 2008 6:50 pm

SPC seems to think the next chance is April 17-18 (so the 10th anniversary of another major outbreak should be quiet), but models are split.
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread

#453 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Apr 13, 2008 2:34 pm

Looking at GFS forecast soundings next Thursday afternoon South of a forecast surface low near Tulsa, and wind shear is very, very favorable for severe weather, but instability is very limited. No doubt due to how much very dry air is sweeping into the Gulf. SPC discussion says a Day 5 area not outlooked because of questions about moisture return.

I'd guess the further South the surface low and front, the closer would be the best dynamics to the returning moisture.

Image

Image


If the surface air mass is just a tad warmer and more humid than forecast, it could be an interesting day. Canadian Global is similar, with the surface low a bit further South, in Texas.

Image

Edit to stick in 12Z CMC, (I had stuck in TXK sounding twice) which, BTW, is a hot link and only has about 21 hours left of being correct.
Last edited by Ed Mahmoud on Sun Apr 13, 2008 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#454 Postby RL3AO » Sun Apr 13, 2008 2:37 pm

The 12z run is a lot stronger than previous ones. Lets see what happens in the next runs.
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#455 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 13, 2008 2:39 pm

CAPE of 194 - good luck getting anything going.
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Re:

#456 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Apr 13, 2008 4:25 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:CAPE of 194 - good luck getting anything going.



Well, maybe if the Canadian is closer to the right prediction, the reduced distance to the Gulf means a little better instability. What would really help instability would be if the system was slower and there was more time to modify the bone dry dewpoints and cool air that has invaded the Gulf.
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread

#457 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Apr 14, 2008 8:43 pm

18Z WRF seems to forecast enough instability (nothing to write home about, however) and deep layer shear for some isolated strong to severe storms in the Arklatex.


Image
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread

#458 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:32 pm

0Z WRF might almost warrant a SLIGHT RISK for Day 3

[img]Image[/img]
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Re: 2008 Severe Weather thread

#459 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:40 am

No SLIGHT RISK, just a broad "See Text" area

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2008

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THIS PERIOD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SHIFT
SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY.

...PARTS OF SWRN MO/SERN KS SSWWD INTO PORTIONS OF S TX...
WHILE THE GENERAL SCENARIO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST A MINIMAL
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND PERHAPS INTO THE
OZARKS DAY 3...MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AMONGST THE MODELS RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL VARIANCE IN THE LOCATION
OF SURFACE FEATURES -- WITH OVER 200 MILES DIFFERENCE IN FRONTAL
POSITION BY AFTERNOON /CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERSUS SWRN AR/ BETWEEN THE
SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER NAMKF RUN.

HAVING SAID THAT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO IMMEDIATELY ON -- OR BEHIND -- THE SURFACE FRONT.
OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ANTICIPATED ATTM COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS
NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF CAPPING -- WHICH
SHOULD HINDER THE OVERALL NUMBER OF WARM SECTOR STORMS -- AND
SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS REGARDING LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES --
WILL INTRODUCE A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT.
THIS AREA WILL BE REFINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS -- POSSIBLY INCLUDING
AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ONCE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

..GOSS/COOK.. 04/15/2008



Ed Mahmoud wrote:0Z WRF might almost warrant a SLIGHT RISK for Day 3

[img]Image[/img]
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CrazyC83
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#460 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:50 am

That seems to be most warranted, since the air mass looks to be too stable...
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