Hybrid system off SE Coast?

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, this is in USA Weather, because it is April, and per the new WRF, still has an area of low pressure at the 300 mb level. But the forecast circular low is looking darned circular, and I'm wondering if anyone wants to weight in on the odds (metaphysically and certainly zero, none, or just very slim) that some kind of hybrid system may form off the SE Coast.






The board seems slow, even a hint of model watching should liven things up.


Edit to add surface map.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Canadian has a slightly interesting look, with the 10ºC 850 mb isotherm around the low between the 0ºC to the North and the continuous 10ºC to the South.




CMC almost (not quite) takes this warm core.


GFS looks similar to CMC, UK Met is solidly cold core, NOGAPS is cold core becoming asymetrically warm core.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Winter like cold air strato-cu following the low offshore as nippy air moves over warmer water, a fairly reliable indicator that this thread does belong in USA Weather and not the tropics thread. At least not any time soon.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it should remain extratropical, at least from my view.

[btangy]

Looks like it should remain extratropical, at least from my view.

Agreed. It usually takes at least a few days for these type of systems to become subtropical. It won't have enough time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like it should remain extratropical, at least from my view.

Agreed. It usually takes at least a few days for these type of systems to become subtropical. It won't have enough time.

But don't you think it is kind of cool that I took the WRF, of all models, and started a model watch thread?

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Interesting system.

[RL3AO]

Even if it doesn't have a chance, this becoming 90L would really make S2K a lot more interesting for a few hours at least.

[HURAKAN]

Even if it doesn't become 90L, it looks very interesting and it's over the GS.

[tigergirl]

Cool sat pic! Wouldn't it be something if it did though. Didn't we start off early last year?

[RL3AO]

Cool sat pic! Wouldn't it be something if it did though. Didn't we start off early last year?

Yeah. May 9.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Way too cold for anything tropical. Most likely a Cold Core
Low will take shape. The winds are cold, with 60s temperature and
gusts of 30-35 mph easily, occasionally 40 mph is possible near the open
water I am sure. But this is probably going to be a cold core
gale center. The AIR temperatures are way TOO cold for anything remotely tropical
or subtropical to form.

[RL3AO]

Way too cold for anything tropical. Most likely a Cold Core.

Hence the reason it is in USA Weather and not Talking Tropics.

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

Im glad that rain isnt inland. It would be a very raw day in Florida.

[brunota2003]

Was looking through the buoy reports. Most are between 20 and 25 knots, but a few are registering sustained winds of up to 30 knots. One here off the NC coast even reported winds of 33 knots for 3 straight hours, with gusts to 40 knots. Definitely some strong winds out there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41025

[wall_cloud]

shoot, we had sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph today with our surface low (lee trof). That said, I think there is too much baroclinicity to be a subtropical system. this is a cold core extra tropical cyclone folks. SSTs are a few degrees too low, although subtropical lows can develop at slightly cooler temps than tropical systems.

[Category 5]

The Canadian has a slightly interesting look, with the 10ºC 850 mb isotherm around the low between the 0ºC to the North and the continuous 10ºC to the South.




CMC almost (not quite) takes this warm core.


GFS looks similar to CMC, UK Met is solidly cold core, NOGAPS is cold core becoming asymetrically warm core.

I've highlighted key words.

The CMC and the GFS are absolute crap at predicting even a few days out, especially in April. I wouldn't get worried, enjoy this quiet while it lasts.

[HURAKAN]