2008 Severe Weather Thread

[RL3AO]

Jeez. The air in the GOM is bone dry.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Jeez. The air in the GOM is bone dry.

The new 12Z WRF and GFS seem to suggest all the precip with Thursday's system will be along and behind the front.

Severe weather doens't seem in the cards this week, at least not in any appreciable number.

[jaxfladude]

[Ed Mahmoud]

New WRF still seems to suggest most rain in Texas and Oklahoma will be with the front and post-frontal.

Save an image, but the GFS suggests the same thing. This clearly minimizes sharply the chance of tornadoes.

Storms forming immediately along the front would have access to good mid-level instability (as seen by a Total-Total of 55), and some speed and directional shear above the surface, so some hail, possibly severe, would seem possible.


Enough helicity that any rogue cell ahead of the front would be a tornado risk, but the odds of that seem on the low side.

[RL3AO]

We have a a WW.

[Bunkertor]

[Ed Mahmoud]

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX NNEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN OK...

...SRN PLAINS...
PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER SRN CO/NRN NM WILL CONTINUE
EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TODAY...WHILE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SSEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN/SWRN TX
INTO SERN KS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD BE DELAYED INTO SRN KS/CENTRAL OK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
AND MOVES NEWD ALONG THE FRONT WITH LOW CENTER LIKELY MOVING INTO
SERN KS THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING NEAR 60F
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN OK TODAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN AXIS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY TO FORM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE DAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MITIGATED BY LINGERING STRATUS
DECK BENEATH STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING EVIDENT THIS MORNING AT FTW
AND OUN. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING UVV/S...INCREASING
CONVERGENCE AND MODEST HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL OK/NWRN
TX/ERN KS. PRIMARY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL REMAIN POST-FRONTAL AS
CLOSED SYSTEM SPREADS INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT WLY COMPONENT OVER SRN/CENTRAL OK AND
NRN/CENTRAL TX /SWLY H5 WINDS NEAR 50 KT/ FOR STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KT. ALTHOUGH...
AS COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD THIS EVENING AND DEEP LAYER FLOW TAKES ON
INCREASING SLY COMPONENT...UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO GET UNDERCUT BY THE
FRONT OVER OK/NRN TX. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE SWWD ALONG
THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAP
WEAKENS. GREATER WLY COMPONENT TO MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW /AND MUCH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WLY WINDS WITH H25 FLOW OVER 90 KT/ MAY SUSTAIN A
FEW SUPERCELLS OFF DRY LINE UNTIL FRONTAL SURGE BEGINS OVERTAKING
ACTIVITY DURING THE MID EVENING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM WHICH CAN SURVIVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF MULTI-MODE
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LARGE HAIL GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR /H5 TEMPS AOB -15C/ AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS/SMITH.. 04/17/2008

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like it'll be hard for any storms to fire ahead of the front in North Texas, with Fort Worth showing a cap of forged titanium-steel alloy.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New WRF does see a little pre-frontal precip action, ie, maybe surface based storms in the warm sector. (Nad some heavy rain mainly behind the front overnight Central into Eastern Texas)


That said, while forecasted sounding would support storms, not all that favorable for severe storms, ok instability and shear, but nothing to write home about.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS also has a bit of pre-frontal precip around Dallas, and a forecast sounding more supportive of severe weather.

Not great for tornadoes due limited low level instability, but good shear and mid-level instability.




ETA: I hope SPC requests an 18Z sounding, to try to get a feel for whether the WRF or GFS is closer.

[Ed Mahmoud]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Look, a thunderstorm formed right where there is a kink (a meso-low?) on the cold front Northwest of ABI


Radar Loop

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRING HILL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LENEXA BY 330 PM CDT.
LEAWOOD AND OVERLAND PARK BY 335 PM CDT.
PRAIRIE VILLAGE...MISSION HILLS...MISSION WOODS AND WESTWOOD HILLS
BY 340 PM CDT.
RAYTOWN...6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY...7 MILES SOUTH OF NORTH
KANSAS CITY AND 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUGAR CREEK BY 345 PM CDT.

[RL3AO]

Nice looking cell in Young Co., Texas.

[Bunkertor]

762
WFUS54 KFWD 172322
TORFWD
TXC363-367-180000-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0029.080417T2322Z-080418T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 622 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR MINERAL WELLS..MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MINERAL WELLS STATE PARK...COOL AND MILLSAP BY 630 PM CDT...
WEATHERFORD BY 655 PM CDT...
HUDSON OAKS BY 700 PM CDT...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR MINERAL
WELLS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3294 9763 3263 9764 3270 9818 3296 9819
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 260DEG 25KT 3281 9808

[RL3AO]

[Ed Mahmoud]

That cell formed on a little bend in the cold front. I wonder if that (I assume a mesolow) is playing a role in enhancing the severe weather

[Category 5]

Look out Fort Worth because if this holds together, you're in the way

[Ed Mahmoud]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
627 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 PM HAIL 1 N MINERAL WELLS 32.83N 98.08W
04/17/2008 E2.75 INCH PALO PINTO TX AMATEUR RADIO

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF MINERAL WELLS

[RL3AO]