2008 Severe Weather Thread

[btangy]

Coming right down I-20. Hopefully it doesn't cycle up and lay a tornado down. Would be a nightmare if it did.

[RL3AO]

SVR issued for Ft Worth.

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TX INCLUDING THE DAL/FTW METROPLEX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204...

VALID 180006Z - 180100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204
CONTINUES.

VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH THE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
MOVING EWD INTO THE DAL/FTW METROPLEX EARLY THIS EVENING. WDSS
RADAR DATA INDICATED PERSISTENT ROTATIONAL TRACKS WITH THREE OF THE
STORMS EXTENDING FROM WISE TO PARKER COUNTIES WHICH WOULD SUGGEST AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF PERSISTENT/LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS WITH DEVIANT MOTION /EWD AT 20-25 KT/...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER PARKER AND WISE COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL TX. SSELY INFLOW
WINDS VEERING TO SWLY AT 2-3 KM AGL PER FTW WSR-88D VAD DATA ARE
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250+
M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM SHEAR AT 30 KT. DEVIANT MOTION AND DEEP LAYER SWLY
SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD THROUGH DAL/FTW
METROPLEX THIS EVENING.

..PETERS.. 04/18/2008


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tornado Warning has expired.

[Bunkertor]

Not looking that good...storms rolling into DFW right now. Radar shows 3,5 inch. hail

http://www.nbc5i.com/index.html

http://media.myfoxdfw.com/live/stream1.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
736 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM TORNADO 6 N ALEDO 32.78N 97.60W
04/17/2008 PARKER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED STORM SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN 6-7
MILES NORTH OF ALEDO.

[Tamora]

Where are all the DFW people??? We got pelted last night for 20 minutes with hail! It stayed marble to quarter, but it was being thrown at our houses with high winds and rains! I haven't heard noise like that in YEARS! We ended up with 4 inches of accumlated hail and 2.5 inches of rain in an hour!

[gboudx]

We didn't get any hail, thank goodness. Just heavy rain, winds and lightning.

[Texas Snowman]

Tornado warning near Jackson, Miss. in Hinds County until 4:15 p.m.

Much of the state is under a Tornado Watch.

Interesting evening shaping up?

[RL3AO]

I'm under my first svr risk of the year for day 3. A pleasant surprise.

[RL3AO]

GFS is starting to show a pretty impressive low over the Upper Midwest next Thursday/Friday.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to push into the Great Lakes on Saturday - great, I'll be driving through it...

[brunota2003]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for NC and southern parts of Va until 8 PM EDT

[HURAKAN]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC AND SCNTRL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201714Z - 201915Z

COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO EXISTS ACROSS NC NWD INTO VA EARLY THIS
AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CORE OF THE UPR LOW BETWEEN
HUNTINGTON-CHARLESTON WV WITH A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS NC AND
VA THROUGH LATE AFTN.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE WARM CONVEYOR PCPN OVER ERN VA/NC
OUTER BANKS AND HEATING OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COMBINATION WITH
FALLING PRESSURES IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MAINTAINED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WWD TO THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS IN NC/VA.
SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WERE COMMON...WITH A NARROW TONGUE OF LWR
60S IMMEDIATELY W OF THE CONVEYOR OF PCPN. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES...WITH A RECENT
UPSWING TREND NOTED NEAR/E OF KCLT. SMALL HAIL WAS REPORTED JUST
BEFORE 17Z E OF KCLT.

THROUGH THE AFTN...AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE UPR
LOW/TROUGH SWING SLOWLY EWD ATOP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AIR MASS
WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP N FROM THE CNTRL NC INTO
SCNTRL VA ALONG ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
BECOME A LARGE HAIL THREAT. FARTHER E...WHERE MORE INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE...ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND
MOVE NWD INTO SCNTRL VA. HERE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR PSBL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH DMGG WINDS/HAIL. ISOLD TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE PSBL...ESPECIALLY FROM ECNTRL NC NWD INTO AREAS AROUND
RICHMOND AND NORFOLK VA. A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTN FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA.

..RACY.. 04/20/2008


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

35188107 35448089 35838019 36288001 36638006 36958024
37347975 37517871 37497802 37207720 36807664 36297645
35697653 35007688 34757710 34637725 34807788 34917871
34897927 34877971 34968048

[brunota2003]

That was the meso prior to the watch, which was issued [the watch] over an hour ago.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
324 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

NCC013-201945-
/O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-080420T1945Z/
BEAUFORT NC-
324 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
BEAUFORT COUNTY...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BLOUNTS CREEK...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH OF RIVER ROAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RIVER ROAD AND WASHINGTON PARK BY 340 PM EDT...
BUNYAN...SLATESTONE...6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON AND 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WALLA WATTA BY 345 PM EDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EGG
SIZE SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE HAIL NEAR OCCURRED NEAR WASHINGTON.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-800-889-6889...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3552 7688 3551 7688 3535 7698 3536 7702
3541 7713 3567 7705 3560 7683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 213DEG 14KT 3544 7702

$$

[RL3AO]

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
BEAUFORT COUNTY...

AT 343 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR SHADY BANKS NEAR THE PAMLICO RIVER...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CHOCOWINITY BY 355 PM EDT...
RIVER ROAD BY 400 PM EDT...
WASHINGTON PARK BY 405 PM EDT...
BUNYAN AND WASHINGTON BY 415 PM EDT...
SLATESTONE...OLD FORD...7 MILES WEST OF WALLA WATTA AND 8 MILES
WEST OF PINETOWN BY 430 PM EDT...

[CrazyC83]

Rare case of a "special advisory" in terms of convective outlooks:

SPC AC 201917

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008

VALID 201910Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF CNTRL/EASTERN NC/VA...

AMENDED FOR EXTENDING SLGT WWD INTO CNTRL NC/VA AND INCREASE HAIL
PROBABILITIES

...UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED OTLK TO INCLUDE HIGHER HAIL PROBABILITIES AND EXTEND
THE CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK INTO CNTRL PARTS OF VA/NC. TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS IN COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES. ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS ENEWD INTO SERN VA AND ERN NC WITH
TIME. REF WW/MCDS.

REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED.

/JPR

...VA/NC...
REF MCD 669

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KY...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY AXES ROTATING
AROUND LOW. ONE OR MORE OF THESE SMALLER PERTURBATIONS WILL AFFECT
THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS REGIONS TODAY. A PLUME OF RELATIVELY
DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM EASTERN NC/EASTERN VA
INTO PARTS OF MD AND CENTRAL PA. DESPITE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN
THIS ZONE...RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL HELP RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO
500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BACKED LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS AREA...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL/DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS DESPITE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY. PRESENT INDICATIONS
REMAIN THAT STRONGER CELLS ALONG AN AXIS FROM DCA-EASTERN NC WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
WV AND WESTERN VA/NC BENEATH COLD UPPER LOW. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
IN THIS AREA SUGGEST A RISK OF HAIL IN MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS TODAY.

...DAKOTAS...
VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH/MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES NEWD FROM NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVE AND INTO SRN CANADA
BY 12Z MON. THE STRONG COLD FRONT NOW VICINITY ND/MT BORDER SWWD
INTO CENTRAL WY MOVES ONLY SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS WRN SD.

STRONG 40-50KT SSELY LLJ AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS DAKOTAS WILL BRING A
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD TODAY...WHICH COUPLED WITH THE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP A SMALL AMOUNT OF MLCAPE ATOP A DEEP
MIXED LAYER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT AND WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT PRODUCE AT LEAST A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

WITH SUCH A VIGOROUS S/WV IMPULSE AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 8C/KM...THERE WILL BE AT A LOW END DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THIS EVENING AS STORMS WILL TEND TO LINE UP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS THEY MOVE NEWD ACROSS WRN ND SWD INTO SD.

/HALES

..JPR/HALES.. 04/20/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2001Z (4:01PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[RL3AO]

Rotation increasing again on the Beaufort, NC cell. TVS with it as well.

[brunota2003]

TORNADO WARNING
NCC013-147-202115-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0017.080420T2030Z-080420T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
430 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BEAUFORT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...
EASTERN PITT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WASHINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT 13 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WASHINGTON BY 445 PM EDT...
OLD FORD BY 515 PM EDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

[RL3AO]

Rotation keeps developing and falling apart with this cell. It has redeveloped again with a new TVS.