Serious question

[linkerweather]

To answer the original posters question as to why they are issued....

First off, it is important to understand that Dr. Gray, Phil Klotzbach, or anyone who makes a seasonal forecast does not simply say 15/8/4 and then thank you.

The "forecast" is a detailed atmospheric analysis of what is going on and how it compares to other seasons. You will also notice in the Colo state forecast that each parameter to determine seasonal activity is statistically analyzed. For example, SST anomolies may have a "usefullness quotient" (my own term) of 58% and general SLP may have a quotient of 72%,
Those factors combined with previous years with similar conditions drive the forecaster to put a number as the final result.

In addition, the continued hard work of Dr. Gray, Klotzbach, et al. leads to improvements over the following years.

Someone brought up a point about what is the use of issuing a forecast that keeps changing....well, unfortunately that is the nature of weather forecasting as there is still, despite huge advancements in technology, some uncertainty. Remember on a day to day basis when you watch the 7 day on TV, you won't take the 7th day forecast as gospel, you will watch each day, and it will likely change for the particular day in question. Well, that forecast is being adjusted each day.

After listening to Dr. Gray, Dr Klotzbach, and others at the Bahamas Hurricane conference, it is clear that there is a huge benefit to the work that they do you just need to read their work, and not just listen to a news report about the specific number of storms.
Josh Linker
Tampa

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well it is good to have the detailed analysis and insight
of Klotzbach. They give very detailed analyses and I like reading that. I think
the analysis portions are good for science.

[Recurve]

If you have questions too, be sure to read the whole report.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2008/april2008/apr2008.pdf

Including the page, "Why issue extended-range forecasts for seasonal hurricane activity?"

Bottom line, the answer is that they believe their methodology can do significantly better than pure averages. They are learning how to see deeper than climatology. The forecast itself is important as is the research and process to develop it, and improve forecasting generally.

[tolakram]

Bottom line, the answer is that they believe their methodology can do significantly better than pure averages. They are learning how to see deeper than climatology. The forecast itself is important as is the research and process to develop it, and improve forecasting generally.

Sure, but why issue numbers in April when the skill is so low? Why not use the methodology but release a below, average, or above average indicator and wait till June 1 to spout numbers. The numbers will still be there but they don;t have to make them part of the short version.

Seriously this is more public relations than anything else.

[MiamiensisWx]

"Sure, but why issue numbers in April when the skill is so low? Why not use the methodology but release a below, average, or above average indicator and wait till June 1 to spout numbers. The numbers will still be there but they don;t have to make them part of the short version.

Seriously this is more public relations than anything else."

The bolded portion is exactly correct. Some members of the general public despise these forecasts because insurance companies unfortunately utilize them and continue their despicable scams. The forecasts should not be used as justification for the companies' actions, but that is the reality. Again, these companies are absolute low lifers, and they generally spread inaccurate perceptions about the actual forecasts. The forecasts should never be utilized for political gains.