Klotzbach / Gray April Forecast=15/8/4 / ACE=150 / NTC=160

[RL3AO]

I don't think you understand...there's definitely an adrenaline "rush" when a t/c is forecasted to be in your neighborhood..Adrenaline is a hormone and some (most) of us can get "hooked" on its effects..effects that don't occur when a cat 5 is hitting say Nicaragua..I remember getting hyped around the time that the Jerry Lewis telethon came on since that was prime-time for t/cyclones
Fortunately, at this point in my life I'm "off the junk"...I'll get my "jollies" vicariously through the younger members..

Were you talking to me? If so, I know what you're talking about. I get the same adrenaline rush when my county is under a tornado warning or when a winter storm is forecasted to hit.

[hial2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrenaline_junkie

This should explain the "Hurricane homer" syndrome...e.g. Texas vs Florida vs N. Carolina that we go through every summer..it's the rush,baby (dating myself)

[Ed Mahmoud]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrenaline_junkie

This should explain the "Hurricane homer" syndrome...e.g. Texas vs Florida vs N. Carolina that we go through every summer..it's the rush,baby (dating myself)

No sense this year, Florida and the Carolinas will get all the storms and near misses, perfect beach summer in Texas.

[JonathanBelles]

Ed, I am beginning, but not dead set on, that idea. I think Florida and the Carolinas will get most of the land falling storms, with one or two going to texas.

[hial2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrenaline_junkie

This should explain the "Hurricane homer" syndrome...e.g. Texas vs Florida vs N. Carolina that we go through every summer..it's the rush,baby (dating myself)

No sense this year, Florida and the Carolinas will get all the storms and near misses, perfect beach summer in Texas.

Ed, I'm willing to bet that as soon as a storm, or simile thereof, spins somewhere west of the islands, someone west of Alabama will forecast a Texas cat 7 t/c landfall..
This will happen as surely as gasoline will be 4 cents more expensive tomorrow..

[Ed Mahmoud]

Look at 1950 and 1999. Ok, in 1999 Bret did hit Texas, but the mother of all ridges did turn it West so fast, it almost missed.

I guess BRO and CRP are open, but my part of Texas, a perfect beach weekend summer.

And in 1950, it was either into Florida, into Mexico, or a near miss on the Carolinas. And the dry pattern suggesting a strong Texas ridge is already going strong I-10 and Southward.

[ROCK]

Look at 1950 and 1999. Ok, in 1999 Bret did hit Texas, but the mother of all ridges did turn it West so fast, it almost missed.

I guess BRO and CRP are open, but my part of Texas, a perfect beach weekend summer.

And in 1950, it was either into Florida, into Mexico, or a near miss on the Carolinas. And the dry pattern suggesting a strong Texas ridge is already going strong I-10 and Southward.

ED, can you explain why your using 1950 and 1999 as your reasoning for no storms for upper Texas coast in 2008? just curious as you sound highly optimistic that Texas is in the clear....

[Duddy]

Look at 1950 and 1999. Ok, in 1999 Bret did hit Texas, but the mother of all ridges did turn it West so fast, it almost missed.

I guess BRO and CRP are open, but my part of Texas, a perfect beach weekend summer.

And in 1950, it was either into Florida, into Mexico, or a near miss on the Carolinas. And the dry pattern suggesting a strong Texas ridge is already going strong I-10 and Southward.

ED, can you explain why your using 1950 and 1999 as your reasoning for no storms for upper Texas coast in 2008? just curious as you sound highly optimistic that Texas is in the clear....

Yeah, I don't get it either. It's like those 9/11 numbers freaks.

9+11=20

2 and 0/ 2= twin towers 0=plane survivors

9110120, Bush's driver's license number!!!!

ZOMG!!!!

[KWT]

What about 1989 though which had alison, Chantel and Jerry hit Texas...granted they weren't the super powerful storms but thats still 3 landfalling systems in one season in Texas so there is obviously got to be a risk and also you can't just dismiss Bret it did make landfall as a very powerful system in 1999 in Texas.

It does seem that texas is at less risk but even then its not in the clear by any stretch and to claim so could well be a little foolish IMO.

Also i know the year 1974 isn't used by Klotzbach and Gray it did feature similar pacific set-ups with regards to a strong la nina in the winter (I guess it weren't used because they were in the less active phase.) had Carmen.

[drezee]

"Other conditions are also in place that could reduce the upper-level winds over the Atlantic, which can prevent a hurricane from strengthening".
That was posted in that Dailey India paper about JB/Grey forecast. Doesn't that statement contradict itself?

That statement was a quote by Keith Blackwell, a meteorologist at the Coastal Weather Research Center at the University of South Alabama on his take of the 2008 season.

That was not a direct quote. I talked with Keith and Dr. Bill, he did state that the upper winds could lessen, but did not say it would reduce strength. The reporter tried to put two and two together and messed it up.


http://www.dailyindia.com/show/230869.p ... ve-average

[HURRICANELONNY]

I understand and agree with the adrenaline rush. I to get it when I here severe thunderstorm ot Hurricane watch/warning. When the warning or watch disappears. My rush does to. But for those who have experienced the devastation. The rush leads to dispair. With no electricity,gas or common neccesities. By the way my spelling sucks. But as sick as I am. I'm waiting and wondering another year. That's why were here.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's a very complex miasma of emotions. I have experienced the aftermath of numerous tropical cyclones, and I concur that the risks associated with landfalls are too great. See 2005 as an example. Populations are larger and more expansive, and the economic risks and insurance/wind storm situations are not wanted at all. There is a big gap between the actual storm experience and the aftermath. The former is very interesting during the winds and precip of a tropical cyclone, while the latter is miserable. I know it; I lived through the aftermath of Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, and Wilma in southern Florida. Frances and Wilma were the most significant events in terms of personal impacts. Overall, I would prefer no landfalls, but I can definitely understand the "rush" (I had it!) during the storm, in addition to the nervousness regarding the short and long term consequences after the event. It's very difficult to describe the emotions when Katrina strengthened to a Category 5 TC over the Gulf of Mexico. It was the strongest blend of fear and fascination I have ever experienced. I was very nervous for those in the path, but I was also excited because I was witnessing a rare event on satellite imagery. Human nature is something...

At least this site exists for preparedness and current monitoring.

[CrazyC83]

I'll tell you one thing. The Azores High was very strong last year and pushed most storms into Mexico. In fact they broke an all time record for 2 Cat 5's making land fall. This year so far the Azores High is very weak. Leaving the SST's out there very High and the SAL very low. If this continues. There could be a very active Cape Verde season. Where they will go? Nobody knows. But I think there will be alot more fishes. Which is fine with me.

Fish Storms are boring...no one pays attention, there's no excitement

And (usually) few or no lives affected either, even if that storm was a record-breaking Cat 5.

[cycloneye]

Here is a summary of the Bahamas Hurricane Conference and some video clips with NHC director Bill Read,Dr Gray,Klotzbash and Max Mayfield talking about forecasting hurricane seasons.

http://www.bahamaswxconference.com/

[Ed Mahmoud]

Look at 1950 and 1999. Ok, in 1999 Bret did hit Texas, but the mother of all ridges did turn it West so fast, it almost missed.

I guess BRO and CRP are open, but my part of Texas, a perfect beach weekend summer.

And in 1950, it was either into Florida, into Mexico, or a near miss on the Carolinas. And the dry pattern suggesting a strong Texas ridge is already going strong I-10 and Southward.

ED, can you explain why your using 1950 and 1999 as your reasoning for no storms for upper Texas coast in 2008? just curious as you sound highly optimistic that Texas is in the clear....

I'm far too lazy, time challenged, and, of course, an amateur, to do my own analysis of the various indices and pick out my own analog years. Bastardi has been pushing 1949-50 as his winter analog since early Autumn, and I see it mentioned again in various discussions, and I also see 1999 mentioned.


Then I ad my own dollop of actual science, like the 3rd driest March in McAllen, TX as indication that feedback will start reinforcing a monster mean ridge in Texas, and well, it all fits.


I was in the last row in the upper deck of the Cotton Bowl, buzzing from pre-game festivities, as Texas broke a long losing streak against Oklahoma (Gardere's first of four straight wins over OU, the Cash brothers, all that), but people I know in Houston tell me they hardly new a hurricane was hitting Galveston when Jerry came ashore, it was such a weak system. But I have seen people using 1989 as an analog year.


Well, a mean ridge and a mean trough just means the average position, a storm can sneak through almost anywhere, even Texas, even this year, but I'd say the odds seem lower than normal.



BTW, as dry as it is, a close developing weak tropical storm moving into South Texas would probably be a good thing by August or September.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Any year with near misses on the Carolinas is also potentially a NY/New England year, and while the word 'overdue' is scientifically meaningless in situations like this (but probably not earthquakes in earthquake prone regions, each year without probably means building stress on the fault), they are still overdue.


I'm waiting for the Joe Bastardi land fall forecast he comes out with in June. If he doesn't highlight Florida and the Carolinas, and put Texas at lower than average numbers, I'd be surprised.

[OuterBanker]

Kudos Cyclone. What a wonderful link to the conference.

Just a note.

As I was watching the interview (Klotzbach, Gray) our employee's wife (she's 34) walked in. After explaining what I was watching and explaining who Gray and Klotzbach were I got this response.

Yea right, a Ph.D.. Let's see he's all of 12 right? I'm sorry but both could be the definition of nerd. You have confirmed my suspicions. You are a nerd, admit it.

I guess I am.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I just hope we never have the catastrophe we had with
Katrina ever again or any other monster like that. I remember feeling
DREADFUL when I saw it reached category 5 and watching it explode
over the Gulf and knowing
it was headed for the very vulnerable gulf coast region. It was
like watching an unfolding disaster (even prior to landfall) and being
able to do nothing to stop it.

[HURAKAN]

As long we populate the SE of the US, Katrina will be one of many.

[Blown Away]

I wonder if their forecast will go down a few now that La Nina has dissipated? Were the analog years selected because of the anticipation of a La Nina influence, if so do these years still accurately apply now that it has dissipated?