CMC Develops a Sub-Tropical(?) Low by Thursday

[CrazyC83]

I can't see it going subtropical or tropical, but while rare, it is certainly not impossible...

It would be quite something for me to travel down there for the first time - in April of all months - and have a tropical storm sitting right next to me...

[Recurve]

So at what point do each of you guys start to take the CMC seriously?

1. The day Wxman57 says "this time the CMC is absolutely right."

2. Whenever it shows a major hitting here. Unfortunately it does that all the time. Still it's hard to ignore animations of Cat 3-4-5s hitting South Florida. Even if you know "it's just a movie," it's still scary.

[Category 5]

So at what point do each of you guys start to take the CMC seriously?

When Cyclone1 learns how to type.

Seriously though, the CMC couldn't predict YESTERDAY'S weather.

[Meso]

Cmc has backed down on it's crazy idea of a South situated storm and now goes on to show the same as the NOGAPS etc. A more northerly laying general low

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There is a very interesting spin. It is the upper level low moving
down from the Carolinas. It is probably an upper level low with a
potent circulation. It looks fascinating. Perhaps if it gets south
over warm water it would have a shot, but right now it is over
cold water.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There is a very interesting spin. It is the upper level low moving
down from the Carolinas. It is probably an upper level low with a
potent circulation. It looks fascinating. Perhaps if it gets south
over warm water it would have a shot, but right now it is over
cold water.

It has something of a surface circulation, judging from the visible loop, but it doesn't look tropical or even sub-tropical.

[HURAKAN]

I think we have two centers of low pressure.

[Meso]

Yeah,the models show the one on the right slipping NE through a gap in the ridge and strengthening as it moves out and the one of the left is the one the CMC showed getting trapped by the high and staying fairly south.While it will be a rainy and windy area,that's likely about all,it appears...Soon though.. soon

[HURAKAN]

Looks a lot like Andrea.

[KWT]

Hmm it does look a little like Andrea with that pop-corn like convection around the low but still doesn't look subtropical in nature yet anyway!

[HURAKAN]

Hmm it does look a little like Andrea with that pop-corn like convection around the low but still doesn't look subtropical in nature yet anyway!

Yep. The pop-corn convection and the location just says Andrea. Nothing about subtropical development yet. We will have to see how long it stays over the Gulf Stream and how bad shear gets to be.

[RL3AO]

First image of 90L (which became Andrea)

[Duddy]

Andrea was the coolest looking STS I had ever seen. It would be cool if this developed a bit more.

[JonathanBelles]

wow! that does look like Andrea!

[tolakram]

This low passed right over Cincinnati on it's round about path to the coast. So if it does develop, and I doubt it will, I'm going to claim I was in it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This low passed right over Cincinnati on it's round about path to the coast. So if it does develop, and I doubt it will, I'm going to claim I was in it.

I was living in LFT in 1997, and I was in the MCS that eventually became Hurricane Danny. That was quite a lightning producer.

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It looks much better this evening on the satellite shot (the north carolina
low). The Bahamas Low looks very nice as well and appears to have a circulation.
However, both circulations seem to be mid to upper level to my untrained eye.
It is interesting to watch, but nothing quite tropical yet.

Newest shot- looking a bit less healthy with the decrease in convection.

COULD we have 2 subtropical systems forming??

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Now it is mostly dried up and moving out to sea.
Goodbye Low.

[Meso]

If it were later on in the year there would be lots of eyes on this.Some convection near the center again on the IR loop.What are the SST temperatures around that area anyway.Likely to remain an extratropical low,models pulling it NE and then NW in quite a hurry