2008 Severe Weather Thread

[Bunkertor]

*AMATEUR prediction*

Sounding Springfield.
Setup favourable for non mesocyclone Tornados ( little CINH, high cape ), but vorticity at low levels, so Tornados unlikely but possible



Have a nice day and stay safe !

Regards from Hamburg, Germany

[CrazyC83]

Is it just me, or is a derecho trying to develop?

[Bunkertor]

Is it just me, or is a derecho trying to develop?

Where ? I ´ve never seen a derecho on a radar

[CrazyC83]

Is it just me, or is a derecho trying to develop?

Where ? I ´ve never seen a derecho on a radar

Pretty solid bow echo stretching across NE Arkansas, NW Tennessee into SE Missouri. Not sure if the winds are getting to the surface though...

[RL3AO]

Radar velocities on the leading edge are at 40-45 knots or so @ 1500ft.

[Bunkertor]

Is it just me, or is a derecho trying to develop?

Where ? I ´ve never seen a derecho on a radar

Pretty solid bow echo stretching across NE Arkansas, NW Tennessee into SE Missouri. Not sure if the winds are getting to the surface though...

OK, now i can see it. So, let´s see if your right. I don´t know, but it looks compact

[CrazyC83]

Radar velocities on the leading edge are at 40-45 knots or so @ 1500ft.

Not impressive at all...

[RL3AO]

Not to often you see that big of a slight risk with no tornado risk.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Part of the SPC definition of a derecho is that winds are in excess of 57 mph over most points in the derecho's path.

The derecho path must be at least 240 mph, and derechos usually travel in excess of 50 mph.


Link

[Ed Mahmoud]

SPC has ABI and SPS and surrounding parts in a hatched and 30% risk for tomorrow, and the Abilene 7 pm sounding tomorrow as predicted by the GFS has potential...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Severe watch in Oklahoma, where things are just starting to pop near TUL, and SPC MD says new WW will be issued downstream of the Arkansas/Tennessee MCS.


.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
416 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 411 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR EXETER...OR 6 MILES WEST OF CASSVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CASSVILLE BY 430 PM CDT.
7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SELIGMAN BY 435 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF EAGLE ROCK AND GOLDEN ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADIC STORM

[RL3AO]

[CajunMama]

What's with the stationary storms in central la? Some places have had 8-10" and they don't look to be weakening.

Edit to add that a couple of placed north of leesville have had 10"+ and it's still coming down.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New WRF still likes Abilene area tomorrow, around 4 pm. 2000+ J/Kg CAPE and 25 to 30 m/s, over 60 knots deep shear.



From looking at Utah U site, most favorable time for severe would be about 4 pm CDT, but the NIU forecast skew-T generator works on the 6 hour intervals. CAPE is actually higher at 18Z, SBCAPE of 1700) but helicity is lower than 7 pm sounding.



GFS just starting to come in now, but it is bedtime.

[Ed Mahmoud]

What's with the stationary storms in central la? Some places have had 8-10" and they don't look to be weakening.

Looks like the outflow boundary and cold pool from this morning's storms in Arkansas has pulled up stationary, and is acting as a cold front. One would think they'd weaken as temps cooled, but with dewpoints near 70ºF in South Louisiana, and temps in mid 70s, temps won't cool much more. They look healthy still on radar.


That'll be an interesting place to watch, where the residual boundary from these storms winds up tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SPC has upgraded ABI and SPS and immediately adjacent areas of Northwest Texas and Southwest Oklahoma into a MODERATE RISK, with a hatched hail area within a 45% hail area.


Morning storms, slightly elevated, already developing from near SPS into SW Oklahoma.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
747 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT

* AT 747 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EXTENDING FROM NEAR TIPTON TO JUST SOUTH OF
HEADRICK...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MANITOU...SNYDER AND TIPTON.

[CrazyC83]

Major hail threat and a moderate tornado threat now. Could see hail up to softball size.

[Bunkertor]

Major hail threat and a moderate tornado threat now. Could see hail up to softball size.

Is softballsize hail predictable ? I think only in some extreme cases.

btw. Anyone an idea where SPC sounding page has moved to ?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Major hail threat and a moderate tornado threat now. Could see hail up to softball size.

Is softballsize hail predictable ? I think only in some extreme cases.

btw. Anyone an idea where SPC sounding page has moved to ?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/