ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

BoM 3/19/08 Update



Lets see how the next few months evolve to see if La Nina completly goes away in the summer or it lingers.But they say that no El Nino is expected despite the warming right now off South America.

[MiamiensisWx]

Please realize that it is climatologically expected that Ninas weaken during this time of the year. Higher sun angle and transitioning seasonal patterns tends to allow warming SSTA, so most Ninas (even strong ones like 1998-1999) weaken during meteorological spring. It says nothing about the state of ENSO during the summer. I would still expect a weak Nina during the Atlantic TC season, so my thoughts are unchanged. It has also been stated that the warming off South America is common during a west-based, mature Nina.

[cycloneye]

Bumping for the members that didnt saw the BoM Update of last week where they explained the warmup at el Nino 1-2 area off South America.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is important to note that the BOM update still indicates enhanced low-level trade winds across the central Pacific. Although the SOI recently ventured into negative daily values, some indicators are still very Nina-esque.

The upcoming month could provide some clues regarding this event's evolution.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center April update



La Nina for the next 3 months is their April forecast.Read the details at link above.

[Recurve]

Climate Prediction Center April update



La Nina for the next 3 months is their April forecast.Read the details at link above.

Holy crap!

[tolakram]

Nice summary by Jeff masters:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200804

[cycloneye]

Note that with time the loop moves,the blues are shrinking,meaning the subsurface waters are starting to warm.The question is if at some point during the last months of 2008 el Nino will appear.My opinion is that during Hurricane Season it will be Neutral ENSO.By the way,if anyone wants to see my 2008 Outlook for the season it is posted at the Tropical Analysis forum.

[cycloneye]

The Southern Occillation Index (SOI) graphic shows an upturn after dipping in the past few weeks.This may indicate that the departure of La Nina may be delayed a lillte bit more.

[deltadog03]

Good riddens to the la nina....bye bye!!

[Cyclenall]

Good riddens to the la nina....bye bye!!

Don't say bye bye to something that could last into next year.

[deltadog03]

Well, its my opinion that it will be mostly gone by late fall.....We might be in a very weak one, but nothing as strong as we had.

[cycloneye]

La Niña Has Dissipated - Neutral Conditions To Continue
Summary
Most indicators of El Niño - Southern Oscillation are now neutral. Further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the last month had the 7-day NINO3 index on 27 April at +0.17°C and the 30-day SOI on 28 April was +5. The Pacific waters below the surface have also warmed significantly over the last month. The La Niña therefore appears to have dissipated and neutral conditions now prevail. Our ENSO Wrap-up has more details.

The latest forecasts of ENSO from international coupled climate models suggest that conditions will remain neutral throughout the outlook period. Most models surveyed here forecast sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean to warm slowly for the rest of 2008 but to stay in the neutral range. While the forecasts are suggesting slightly warmer ocean temperaures than the outlooks issued one month ago, it is still unlikely that an El Niño will develop in 2008.


ENSO Models April Update



La Nina is now gone.The question is if El Nino will appear by the last 3 months of 2008 or earlier or Neutral conditions will be the rule all the way thru the end of the year.

[ColdFusion]

and not even THREE WEEKS ago the forecast was to continue for another 3 months. Wow.

[boca]

I'm glad that La Nina has dissapated and now neutral conditions will prevail.What I don't understand is why it dissapated so fast when it was a strong La Nina in the first place.

[RL3AO]

and not even THREE WEEKS ago the forecast was to continue for another 3 months. Wow.

Different forecasts. The three month La Nina forecast is from the Climate Prediction Center, who as of April 28, say there is still a La Nina. This is from the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia.

[cycloneye]

I posted this question viewtopic.php?f=42&t=100841&p=1704050#p1704050 at the Got a Question? forum but so far it has not been answered about this.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 1997 El Niño that totally destroyed Dr. Gray's hurricane season forecast was very poorly forecast, and came on much quicker than expected.



Everyone's hurricane numbers, including mine, are probably way to high.



But I could be wrong.

[boca]

The 1997 El Niño that totally destroyed Dr. Gray's hurricane season forecast was very poorly forecast, and came on much quicker than expected.



Everyone's hurricane numbers, including mine, are probably way to high.



But I could be wrong.

2005 was a neutral year with 28 storms. I wonder if we will transistion into El Nino or remain neutral thru the fall season. Ed you picked
71-Ed Mahmoud=13/11/8, which was one of the lower numbers in our group.

[HURAKAN]

Neutral or La Niña, not much of a difference.