Africa and ITCZ

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dixiebreeze
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Africa and ITCZ

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Apr 02, 2008 4:54 pm

If this was June and the latitude of convection was more northerly, we'd have something to watch. As it is, waaay too early.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg
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Re: Africa and ITCZ a bit busy....

#2 Postby Gustywind » Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:39 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:If this was June and the latitude of convection was more northerly, we'd have something to watch. As it is, waaay too early.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg



That's quite possible given the sat pic, we're close to June...good looking dixiebreeze! :D
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Re: Africa and ITCZ a bit busy....

#3 Postby HurricaneRobert » Wed Apr 02, 2008 8:31 pm

But it will change when it gets closer to the SAL.
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#4 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Apr 02, 2008 9:52 pm

Very Beautiful Colors!!!! :ggreen:
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#5 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Apr 02, 2008 9:55 pm

Definitely something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the beginning of June.

My first Blob Watch of 2008:

Blob Watch, predict it'll fizzle after it exits the coast...xD
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Re:

#6 Postby Gustywind » Thu Apr 03, 2008 6:07 am

brunota2003 wrote:Definitely something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the beginning of June.

My first Blob Watch of 2008:

Blob Watch, predict it'll fizzle after it exits the coast...xD


At this period... that's quite normal it will fizzle :spam: !!!!
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Re: Africa and ITCZ

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:41 pm

Here is the ITCZ from Africa to the Pacific Ocean.

Image

Here is the ITCZ inside Africa.With time the ITCZ will move northward.Note that inside Africa it is more north than in the Atlantic waters but that is a normal occurance.

Image
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#8 Postby KWT » Thu Apr 24, 2008 1:15 am

ep the ITCZ will be really on the northward move over the next 3-4 months over the Atlantic.
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Re: Africa and ITCZ

#9 Postby GCANE » Thu Apr 24, 2008 5:01 am

Shear is heavy north of 10N. Below that - nearly zero. IMHO, once shear lets up above 10N we could see tropical development out of the ITCZ. Actually, I think this could be 4 to 6 weeks away; before the season starts.

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Re: THE GOOD & THE BAD

#10 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Apr 24, 2008 6:38 am

I think and this is just my thoughts. I'm not a pro. The SST's off Africa are above normal and I think the Azores High is going to be weaker then last year. Also SAL seems to be way less concentration then last year. If this holds. I think there will be more named storms farther out. Meaning alot more recurves (fishes). Now this also will depend upon the Bermuda High and its strength. But the way I look at it now. More storms named farther out and alot more fishy. Hope I'm right. :roll:
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Re: Africa and ITCZ

#11 Postby Gustywind » Thu Apr 24, 2008 7:08 am

cycloneye wrote:Here is the ITCZ from Africa to the Pacific Ocean.

Image

Here is the ITCZ inside Africa.With time the ITCZ will move northward.Note that inside Africa it is more north than in the Atlantic waters but that is a normal occurance.

Image


Absolutely Cycloneye and the ITCZ will approach in theory the 10°N near Trinidad in July in our area ... :)
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#12 Postby KWT » Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:22 am

Well the shear is still very hefty north of 10N but thats to be expected given we are in April still. Should see it starting to weaken over the next 3 months as we see stronger waves coming off Africa.
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Re: Africa and ITCZ

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:19 pm

The ITCZ inside Africa is more north in latitud than last year at this time.Read the discussion below:

Latest Text Summary

During the period from April 11-20, 2008, the African portion of the Intertropical Front (ITF) was located at around 11.8 degrees north latitude, more than half a degree north of 11.2 north, the normal. The position is significantly further north when compared to the same dekad of 2007 when the ITF was around 10.2 degrees north. Figure 1 shows the current position compared to normal, and the ITF is currently close to normal everywhere but in Sudan where it has had large fluctuations from day to day. From Figures 2 and 3 it is clear that the ITF is near normal in the west, while north of normal in the east. The ITF is currently 12.2 degrees north in the west and 11.9 degrees north in the east Compared with the 1979-2006 mean of around 12.5 degrees north in the west, and a normal position of around 9.7N.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/f ... itcz.shtml

Image
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