Joe Bastardi Preliminary 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast

[cycloneye]

JB says threat of landfalls is increased in 2008 espècially more to the Southeast U.S. Analog years are 1955,1996 and 1999.Read all the report below:



Joe Bastardi's Early 2008 Hurricane Forecast Updated: Friday, April 25, 2008 12:09 PM.

Slightly More Storms than Average with Increased Chances for Landfalls in North America.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, have released a preliminary hurricane season forecast for 2008. They believe the waning La Niña conditions and a continued warm water cycle in the Atlantic Basin will be the two defining factors influencing the 2008 hurricane season, causing the number of storms to be slightly above average but, more importantly, increasing the chance for U.S. landfalling storms.

"The warming is not uniform across the entire Atlantic. In some areas where hurricanes normally form - the central and eastern tropical Atlantic - ocean water temperatures are near or below normal. This should limit the number of storms, so we do not expect a near record high number like in the 2005 season. However, considering other factors, the number of storms should be slightly higher than historical averages", said Bastardi. "The warmest waters relative to normal will be in the northern areas of the Atlantic, especially toward the North American continent. This could potentially increase the threat of major landfalls to the U.S. coast."

"In determining areas of elevated potential for landfall, we try to understand where the spread of storm tracks will center - but even within this spread, storms can 'bunch', creating discrete areas of increased risk," Bastardi said. Last season, the spread of the storms shifted southwest with one such bunch in the northern Caribbean. "This year, early indications show that the spread will move north and east with a target closer to the Southeast U.S."

Bastardi and the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center are looking at 1950, 1996, and 1999 as a few of the years showing similar weather characteristics to our current large-scale patterns. In October of 1950, Hurricane King tracked through the Caribbean making landfall on the Southeast coast of Florida. In 1995, Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit North Carolina. During the 1999 hurricane season, Floyd and Dennis made landfall in September on the North Carolina coast.

Bastardi will provide more details and insight at the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Summit on May 12, 2008 in Houston, TX. Attendees at the summit will include leaders in industries heavily impacted by tropical weather, Bastardi's AccuWeather.com EnergyPro® clients, and leading members of the press.



Joe Bastardi Early 2008 Forecast

[HURAKAN]

Error: "In 1995, Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit North Carolina"

Hurricane Connie and Diane were in 1955.


By the way, I was expecting to see a map depicting his landfall predictions. Where is it!!!

[cycloneye]

Error: "In 1995, Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit North Carolina"

Hurricane Connie and Diane were in 1955.


By the way, I was expecting to see a map depicting his landfall predictions. Where is it!!!

He is going to give more details of his forecast on May 12.

[accuweather]

Hi Guys,

I identified two errors in the press release below which I have asked to be fixed. I have corrected the quote below.

1. "1996" should be "1955" (this was a big typo, 1996 was NOT an analog year)
2. "1995" should be "1955" (I lived in NC in 1995 and don't recall Connie and Diane - someone mentioned this above as well)

Joe Bastardi's Early 2008 Hurricane Forecast Updated: Friday, April 25, 2008 12:09 PM. Slightly More Storms than Average with Increased Chances for Landfalls in North America

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, have released a preliminary hurricane season forecast for 2008. They believe the waning La Niña conditions and a continued warm water cycle in the Atlantic Basin will be the two defining factors influencing the 2008 hurricane season, causing the number of storms to be slightly above average but, more importantly, increasing the chance for U.S. landfalling storms.

"The warming is not uniform across the entire Atlantic. In some areas where hurricanes normally form - the central and eastern tropical Atlantic - ocean water temperatures are near or below normal. This should limit the number of storms, so we do not expect a near record high number like in the 2005 season. However, considering other factors, the number of storms should be slightly higher than historical averages", said Bastardi. "The warmest waters relative to normal will be in the northern areas of the Atlantic, especially toward the North American continent. This could potentially increase the threat of major landfalls to the U.S. coast."

"In determining areas of elevated potential for landfall, we try to understand where the spread of storm tracks will center - but even within this spread, storms can 'bunch', creating discrete areas of increased risk," Bastardi said. Last season, the spread of the storms shifted southwest with one such bunch in the northern Caribbean. "This year, early indications show that the spread will move north and east with a target closer to the Southeast U.S."

Bastardi and the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center are looking at 1950, 1955, and 1999 as a few of the years showing similar weather characteristics to our current large-scale patterns. In October of 1950, Hurricane King tracked through the Caribbean making landfall on the Southeast coast of Florida. In 1955, Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit North Carolina. During the 1999 hurricane season, Floyd and Dennis made landfall in September on the North Carolina coast.

Bastardi will provide more details and insight at the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Summit on May 12, 2008 in Houston, TX. Attendees at the summit will include leaders in industries heavily impacted by tropical weather, Bastardi's AccuWeather.com EnergyPro® clients, and leading members of the press.



Joe Bastardi 2008 Forecast

[x-y-no]

Thanks, and good to see you posting here. Don't be a stranger!

[cycloneye]

Thank you for the quick correction of the analog years.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow an Accuweather Met!! This is new..Good to see you here...

[accuweather]

Hi Guys,

I identified two errors in the press release below which I have asked to be fixed. I have corrected the quote below.

1. "1996" should be "1955" (this was a big typo, 1996 was NOT an analog year)
2. "1995" should be "1955" (I lived in NC in 1995 and don't recall Connie and Diane - someone mentioned this above as well)

WRONG AGAIN!

After talking to Bastardi, 1996 was an analog year, but 1950 is out now. The re-re-release is going out like this:

Bastardi and the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center are looking at 1955, 1996, and 1999 as a few of the years showing similar weather characteristics to our current large-scale patterns. In 1955, Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit the Outer Banks and Carolina Beach in North Carolina. In 1996, Hurricane Bertha made landfall near Wilmington and Hurricane Fran made landfall near Cape Fear in North Carolina. During the 1999 hurricane season, Floyd and Dennis made landfall in September on the North Carolina coast.

Technically, Bertha and Fran hit at about the same place, so I'm not sure why we made that distinction, but at this point, I didn't want to push it.

[HURAKAN]

OK, now I get it. It means that the Carolinas should watch out!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I have been saying since February Florida, and some near misses, or maybe near hits, on the Carolinas, and any near miss on the Carolinas could always affect New York/New England.


Except for extreme South Texas, generally CRP and Southward, I think Gulf from NOLA Westward is in for an inactive season. I assume Joe will agree to a below normal season in the offshore energy belt from Mississippi Canyon to Mustang Island.

I almost hope we get a TD or TS, because I sense a dry summer in Texas South of I-10 developing.



In the PPV column last night, Joe mentions waking up to write things down. He may need a little recorder kept at the bed side.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I registed at the AccuWx forum in February, stayed for a week, left. Way too Northeast/Pennsylvania centric.


Off to Wichita Falls area, frontal storms on the way don't look bad yet. garden variety. I hope they make it to HOU, even though I didn't mow as planned, due to sudden business.

[Blown Away]

The near to below average SST's in the Central Atlantic may allow weaker systems to move farther west and closer to the CONUS and then develop before turning.

[KWT]

Interesting though I think that east should probably read west because the east tropical atlantic is in parts well above average right now, esp just off Africa.

Still seems in line with most la nina years, not quite sure why 1996 would be used but then again a more detailed forecast when its issued will probably give a reasoning for it...however yeah most summers that had strong la ninas tend to have 12-15 NS but a higher ratio of hurricanes/majors to what you'd expect...generally!

[boca]

Here are the areas affected in 1950, 1955, 1996, and 1999:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1955.asp

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1996.asp

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1999.asp

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1950.asp

I hope for Florida's sake 1950 doesn't pan out. Irene in 1999 would be good for our drought situation.

[KWT]

Yep the Carolinas do rather stick out on those years Bastardi uses and all 3 years had some very interesting and dangerous storms...1955 with Janet, Fran in 1996 and obviously Floyd in 1999.

[cycloneye]

If the analogs that JB says pans out,then Puerto Rico may see activity of systems moving close or moving thru the island as the analog years show.

1950=TS Baker
1955=TS Hilda
1996=Bertha,Hortense
1999=Jose

[Hurricaneman]

if those analog years pan out, even us in southern new england need to be very vigilant, and not complacent like the usual

[Ptarmigan]

I registed at the AccuWx forum in February, stayed for a week, left. Way too Northeast/Pennsylvania centric.


Off to Wichita Falls area, frontal storms on the way don't look bad yet. garden variety. I hope they make it to HOU, even though I didn't mow as planned, due to sudden business.

Well AccuWx is based in Pennsylvania and is in the Northeast. No surprise there.

[jinftl]

In 1999, a shift west in the tracks of Floyd and even Dennis by as little as 150 or 200 miles before turning north would have resulted in Florida being directly impacted (possibly even with landfalls). Also, it is not hard to see how those storms, with a slightly different heading once turning north, would also have had serious impacts on Long Island or New England. If 1999 is an analog year, that is a call for all residents of the East Coast and Eastern Caribbean to be extra vigilant.

Here are the areas affected in 1950, 1955, 1996, and 1999:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1955.asp

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1996.asp

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1999.asp

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1950.asp

I hope for Florida's sake 1950 doesn't pan out. Irene in 1999 would be good for our drought situation.

[OuterBanker]

Wasn't Floyd the one that caused the largest evac ever on the east coast. From Fl to NC. Fl breathed a sigh of relief from the 90's storms because most of the storms that hit us then were headed for Fl before the hard right. Of course thier luck ran out in 04 and 05. BTW, Is JB using 55, 96 and 99 as analog years. Geez, well at least he didn't use 54 (hazel) or 60 (Donna). Doesn't bode well. Just hope the news media doesn't quote it. Could scare tourist away.