Joe Bastardi Preliminary 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast

[MiamiensisWx]

I think we must realize that these landfall risk outlooks closely follow climatology. We hear the same thing every year. North Carolina, Florida, and the Gulf Coast are always in the "high" category (in terms of probabilities) for numerous forecasts. We have not developed effective long range outlooks for plausible "at risk" regions, so we largely utilize climatology. There are some exceptions, but we haven't uncovered the biggest and most significant long term factors, which hinders these outlooks. We always "fall back" on climatology. For example, a hurricane could strike North Carolina (or any region) during this season, but can we really confirm that the outlook "nailed" the pattern? It has already been proven that Nina seasons often feature more Cape Verde/MDR (east biased) development, which allows greater chances of recurvature or strikes further north than the FL east coast. Florida can be struck from any direction, and the Gulf Coast is vulnerable to systems like Danny 1997, Humberto 2007, and other "close" cyclogenesis. Although we have finished more studies in recent decades, we always utilize a massive dose of climatology in these outlooks instead of actual long term pattern recognition. Undoubtedly, that has changed over the past several years, but we are still VERY limited. Research should continue to gain more insights, but there are some limitations in these outlooks at the moment.

In the end, why do we need analogs to determine whether one should be prepared? Everyone should be ready, regardless of the "risk" aspect.

By the way, Joe Bastardi already dropped 1950 from the "list".

[KWT]

Floyd looked like it was going to hit Florida at one point and yeah they had warnings out for a very large area, biggest since Donna in 1960 I believe.

[MiamiensisWx]

Wasn't Floyd the one that caused the largest evac ever on the east coast. From Fl to NC. Fl breathed a sigh of relief from the 90's storms because most of the storms that hit us then were headed for Fl before the hard right. Of course thier luck ran out in 04 and 05. BTW, Is JB using 55, 96 and 99 as analog years. Geez, well at least he didn't use 54 (hazel) or 60 (Donna). Doesn't bode well. Just hope the news media doesn't quote it. Could scare tourist away.

You're correct. I still harbor vivid memories of Floyd. The turn was actually forecast well in advance, and it was very visible on the cone. It was the media (and NOT all markets) that led to the "it will hit Florida" hype, in addition to the TPC's uncertainity as to "how close it will come" to the east coast of Florida before it turned north. Only a tiny minority of the news channels were actually suggesting that the TC may strike the FL east coast. The distance from the coast was the main concern, and it was certainly justified. We were holding our breath. Although a direct strike was unlikely, a close pass would have brought strong winds (TS force) over the coast. When it finally curved north over the eastern Bahamas and passed east of Cape Canaveral, I went to the oceanfront at Pompano Beach and watched the very high waves from Atlantic Boulevard. The occasional squalls and light stinging precipitation was a memorable sight, especially when it was mixed with the surf submerging the low beach and entering the parking lot. Sustained TS force winds remained off the SE coast of Florida, so I could stand erect near the ocean.

[KWT]

It also came in weaker then was progged I believe looking at wikipedia.

[jinftl]

I remember the incredible surf and beach erosion Floyd caused even as he stayed offshore south florida....the sand was all but gone as waves reached A1A in Fort Lauderdale during high tide and the boardwalk in Hollywood was ankle deep in water as waves reached to highrise doorsteps....incredible sight. Made folks wonder the type of destruction a direct hit would have caused...the margin of error was great enough for it to make sense to prepare for a hurricane...the western fringes if not the western eyewall. Erring on the side of caution with that beast offshore made total sense.

Wasn't Floyd the one that caused the largest evac ever on the east coast. From Fl to NC. Fl breathed a sigh of relief from the 90's storms because most of the storms that hit us then were headed for Fl before the hard right. Of course thier luck ran out in 04 and 05. BTW, Is JB using 55, 96 and 99 as analog years. Geez, well at least he didn't use 54 (hazel) or 60 (Donna). Doesn't bode well. Just hope the news media doesn't quote it. Could scare tourist away.

You're correct. I still harbor vivid memories of Floyd. The turn was actually forecast well in advance, and it was very visible on the cone. It was the media (and NOT all markets) that led to the "it will hit Florida" hype, in addition to the TPC's uncertainity as to "how close it will come" to the east coast of Florida before it turned north. Only a tiny minority of the news channels were actually suggesting that the TC may strike the FL east coast. The distance from the coast was the main concern, and it was certainly justified. We were holding our breath. Although a direct strike was unlikely, a close pass would have brought strong winds (TS force) over the coast. When it finally curved north over the eastern Bahamas and passed east of Cape Canaveral, I went to the oceanfront at Pompano Beach and watched the very high waves from Atlantic Boulevard. The occasional squalls and light stinging precipitation was a memorable sight, especially when it was mixed with the surf submerging the low beach and entering the parking lot. Sustained TS force winds remained off the SE coast of Florida, so I could stand erect near the ocean.

[MiamiensisWx]

If anyone wants to see an example of the potential effects along the beach in Broward County (and SE FL) from a large hurricane like Floyd, they should research archival sources and photographs from the 1926 and 1947 September hurricanes. The 1926 cyclone's angle of approach and large wind radii of TS and hurricane force winds caused extensive beach erosion and destruction of coastal properties. The steep offshore depths enhanced large waves. The aftermath scene at the Hollywood Beach Resort and Casino certainly offers a history lesson! The 1926 TC was an impressive event, and it caused extensive wind damage in Broward County, although the center made landfall on Key Biscayne and Coral Gables further south. It was truly a rare event - you don't often observe a large Category 4 hurricane (125 kt/933 mb) making landfall anywhere...

I will throw in Isabel (and nor'easters) as another example of coastal effects from tropical and extratropical cyclones. These large cyclones have produced lower sustained winds along the coasts than 1926, and we have seen the costly results from these storms. It is rightfully not ignored, and it doesn't take a direct major hurricane strike to inflict extensive damage and consequences for coastal properties. I have personally observed extensive beach erosion along the SE Florida coast after the offshore passage of extratropical cyclones. Low accretion rates and the elevation of barrier islands (combined with offshore topography) can greatly increase the vulnerability of some coastal locations.

Regardless, does anyone agree with my preceding (on topic) discussion of these landfall risk outlooks at the top of the page?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1703691#p1703691

[Toadstool]

I agree that everyone should be prepared, which is why it's sad to see people crying Wolf far too often. Even if Bastardo is right, his message is lost thanks to the diligent Wolf cries of Dr. Gray and company.

I think we must realize that these landfall risk outlooks closely follow climatology. We hear the same thing every year. North Carolina, Florida, and the Gulf Coast are always in the "high" category (in terms of probabilities) for numerous forecasts. We have not developed effective long range outlooks for plausible "at risk" regions, so we largely utilize climatology. There are some exceptions, but we haven't uncovered the biggest and most significant long term factors, which hinders these outlooks. We always "fall back" on climatology. For example, a hurricane could strike North Carolina (or any region) during this season, but can we really confirm that the outlook "nailed" the pattern? It has already been proven that Nina seasons often feature more Cape Verde/MDR (east biased) development, which allows greater chances of recurvature or strikes further north than the FL east coast. Florida can be struck from any direction, and the Gulf Coast is vulnerable to systems like Danny 1997, Humberto 2007, and other "close" cyclogenesis. Although we have finished more studies in recent decades, we always utilize a massive dose of climatology in these outlooks instead of actual long term pattern recognition. Undoubtedly, that has changed over the past several years, but we are still VERY limited. Research should continue to gain more insights, but there are some limitations in these outlooks at the moment.

In the end, why do we need analogs to determine whether one should be prepared? Everyone should be ready, regardless of the "risk" aspect.

By the way, Joe Bastardi already dropped 1950 from the "list".

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree that everyone should be prepared, which is why it's sad to see people crying Wolf far too often. Even if Bastardo is right, his message is lost thanks to the diligent Wolf cries of Dr. Gray and company.

I concur with the first line of your post, but Joe Bastardi (and AccuWeather) have also raised the "hype" level very frequently. You should have seen their Atlantic TC landfall probability forecasts over the past few seasons. JB has shown very little skill with respect to Atlantic TC outlooks, and he continually changes his views, although the outlooks of Gray and Klotzbach have been very poor, too. JB does make some decent calls, but they have been primarily forecasts for singular tropical cyclones, the first half of the previous winter, and severe wx events. Pattern recognition is a good thing. Regardless, too many people ignore AccuWeather's foibles, including their constant "Northeast/Gulf strike" hype in 2006. One of AccuWeather's PR people also attempted to "spin" the forecast as "accurate", though JB clearly and incorrectly indicated the Gulf would have seen a "creeping threat" to oil and energy firms in 2006. Overall, I don't see significant difference in terms of accuracy between AccuWeather and the recent Gray/Klotzbach outlooks. Fortunately, I think Phil Klotzbach will produce better forecasts since Bill "William" Gray has left the building. Gray's main saving grace is his valid points that global warming's influence on tropical cyclones is often overplayed, though I do believe it may play some slight indirect roles and influences in the intensity department.

More forecasters (and the armchair ones here during "the season") should admit their busts and thorougly examine the reasons why their thoughts did not verify. They should also explain the factors that contributed to the outcomes if their forecasts were correct. Responsibility is crucial for all meteorological services. A responsible forecaster would carefully and excruciatingly examine their verification in the end. It is not very difficult; a simple comparison of the progged outcome versus the final data would be sufficient. It would significantly reduce the influence of invalid science that is manufactured by their own thoughts.

[HURAKAN]

[CourierPR]

Is Bastardi guilty of being a showboat? Yes, he is. However, I still don't believe he gets due credit for pattern recognition. That being said, it only takes one storm to hit your area and cause major problems,thus cvershadowing anybody's seasonal predictions.

[Blown Away]

Looks like a persistent EC trough to me.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like a persistent EC trough to me.

And a ridge over Texas, so a storm like Bret that comes North out of the Bay of Campeche hits a wall and turns hard left, and tries to miss Texas. (Bret didn't quite turn on time, but the good news is the coast is lightly populated between CRP and BRO).


May be a drier than desired summer in the Houston area, hopefully not a drought, but I suspect all but the eastern-most offshore oil producing regions are in a lower than climatology risk.


If this was shaping up as a strong El Niño year, I'd say Maine to Texas and Los Angeles to San Diego, and Hawaii always have to watch, but I think we can leave Southern California out of the risk area this year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I will be in Florida for a good chunk of the early Hurricane season, so this is definitely interesting.

[fci]

Speaking for myself, and hopefully others; with an Accuweather Met now on the board publicly (I know that they have lurked in the past and may be under different names); we need to make sure that we keep JB comments under control.

I know that I like to tease those devotees of him and I vow to cool it this season since I appreciate someone from Accuweather participating on the board.

Hopping off of soapbox and back to lurking until the "action" starts up......

[Toadstool]

Sorry to disappoint everyone, but... Season Cancel:
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20 ... 6/news0502

[RL3AO]

Sorry to disappoint everyone, but... Season Cancel:
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20 ... 6/news0502

I know they didn't make it a law, but so much for the separation of church and state.

[Ad Novoxium]

I seem to dimly recall Pat Robertson also did something similar, "claiming" he deflected Gloria and Felix (95) from Virginia Beach through prayer power. But when he demonstrated this with Isabel in 03...well, you know what happened.

[Meso]

lol.. They prayed for El Nino,they got La Nina. I can understand for those who are religious to say some prayers for the lives of those who are going to be affected.But lol @ trying to change weather patterns with it. To each their own I guess

[OuterBanker]

lol, Toad. And yes Ad, Pat Robertson did make claims about Gloria and Felix. I didn't know he steered Isabel though, I'm going to talk to him about that one. Toad, I assume they didn't do this in 04 and 05?

[Toadstool]

lol, Toad. And yes Ad, Pat Robertson did make claims about Gloria and Felix. I didn't know he steered Isabel though, I'm going to talk to him about that one. Toad, I assume they didn't do this in 04 and 05?

From what I hear they did it the first time last year... and since it "worked" ("boggling the minds of many scientists"), obviously they're going to do it again...

Hopefully people will still buy hurricane supplies and not be like some of those who get serious illnesses but refuse medical care in favor of only prayer! (Actually, we do need some Darwin action for those characters...)