Need help here Please.

[Marilyn]

My Son and Friends are taking their boat out from Key Bisayne Fl. to Bimini Bahamas April 30th thru May7th He wanted me to find out if there may be any Front or storms that will or can affect the trips. Their boat isn't all that large is there any place where i can go and find this information out?
Thanks it will be Appreciated.
Marilyn

[MiamiensisWx]

A good resource is the NWS Miami office (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/). The Area Forecast Discussion (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL) and seven day forecast for Key Biscayne, FL (click here) are strongly recommended.

[Marilyn]

Thank you, miami

[Recurve]

They will also be in waters covered by the Key West forecast office, which produces outlooks and marine forecasts for the zones off the Keys.

This is the site for marine zones and forecasts:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/marine/

[wxman57]

My Son and Friends are taking their boat out from Key Bisayne Fl. to Bimini Bahamas April 30th thru May7th He wanted me to find out if there may be any Front or storms that will or can affect the trips. Their boat isn't all that large is there any place where i can go and find this information out?
Thanks it will be Appreciated.
Marilyn

Hi Marilyn,

I've been forecasting wind and waves/swell for about 30 years now. Let me take a look.

The only significant front I see will move through the route on the afternoon/evening of the 29th. Northerly winds 15-20 knots will kick up waves 4-6 feet with an occasional 8 ft wave the night of the 29th into the morning of the 30th. That's pretty rough for a small boat. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will be closer to 14-17 kts from the north with 3-5 occasionally 6 ft waves. Still rough.

Winds rotate to northeasterly at 14-17 kts by Thursday morning (May 1) with continued 3-5 ocnl 6 ft seas. By Thursday afternoon/evening, winds will be from the east at 14-17 kts with continued 3-5 ft waves. These conditions should persist through Friday, May 2nd. Seas may even increase a little on Friday with that long fetch of easterly winds at 15-18 kts.

By Saturday, May 3rd, High pressure pushes off to the east and winds become ESE at 10-15 kts. Seas should steadily drop to 2-4 ft during the day. Winds and seas should decrease even more on Sunday with the high pressure center not far away. The relatively light winds and slight seas should persist through the 7th.

Bottom line, quite rough Wednesday to Friday for a small boat. Great weather Saturday through Tuesday.

[Marilyn]

Thank you all , I have given this information to him and They have decided not to go. I am A happy mother now.

AGAIN THKS,

[wxman57]

Just looking at today's 12Z GFS 10-meter wind forecasts, I see NNE winds 15-17 kts Wednesday into Thursday between FL and Bimini. That's enough for 3-5 ft waves with an occasional 6-7 ft wave. This is slightly less than the 4-6 ft waves that the GFS indicated yesterday. I'd say 4-5 ft waves is a pretty good bet Wed/Thu.

GFS still indicates a slight increase in easterly wind/seas Thursday night then a drop-off Friday afternoon/evening as high pressure settles in for the weekend.

How big is the boat they planned on using?

[Marilyn]

wxman57
Hi He mentioned it was only a 26 footer. and i am glad they aren't going. yes he can swim. and he is 36 But mothers still worry about their children. It seems along way on such a small boat to me. Thanks so much for the info. I love Storm2k

[vbhoutex]

A 26 footer is definitely too small for that type of trip, at least for the forecasted waves. Glad they decided not to go. Normally most boats that small are not taken too far off shore.

[hawkeh]

Yeah I wouldn't dare try and make that trip in a boat so small, waves can be a lot bigger then ya think.

[Decomdoug]

I have done that trip in a 28' with twin crusaders and again in a 42' with a 3208 Cat engine. Even in calm seas it is a little unnerving. Nedless to say, the 42' was a lot more fun. Twin engines in a 26' would be manadtory. The boaters rule for any crossing of open ocean is "two is one and one is none"