Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3397
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

New MD - watch likely

#41 Postby Bunkertor » Thu May 01, 2008 3:41 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008
Image
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO SE SD/SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 012028Z - 012200Z

IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

#42 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 01, 2008 4:07 pm

OUN sounding shows cap nearly gone...


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3397
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

#43 Postby Bunkertor » Thu May 01, 2008 4:13 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:OUN sounding shows cap nearly gone...


You mean the Cap is gone because LFC = LCL ?
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

#44 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 01, 2008 4:17 pm

Bunkertor wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:OUN sounding shows cap nearly gone...


You mean the Cap is gone because LFC = LCL ?



Not exactly.

The CINH is a small negative value, and eye-balling it, there isn't a big positive temperature excursion above the surface.


But a professional might have the definitive answer.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

#45 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 01, 2008 4:20 pm

SPC RUC analysis shows CINH below -25 J/Kg (below in an absolute value kind of way) with CAPE near 4000 J/Kg in Southern Oklahoma.


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#46 Postby KWT » Thu May 01, 2008 4:26 pm

Yep looks like the cap is nearly gone so convective development should beign to occur shortly if thats the case, now its a matter of watching out for any signs of towering cumulus I suppose.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3397
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

#47 Postby Bunkertor » Thu May 01, 2008 4:28 pm

Yes and there´s a MD on it. With that rates, i wonder why they issued the northern MD first.

As to the Cap. I understand what you mean. No capping, because the temperature increases nearly linear ?

I questioned my german forum. Maybe i can deliver another explanation.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

#48 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 01, 2008 4:41 pm

Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
LARGE PART OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 435 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
HURON SOUTH DAKOTA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SPENCER IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SELY FLOW E OF DEEP SFC LOW JUST S OF
YKN...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING
NWWD THRU WATCH AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY COLD
FRONT THAT IS MOVING EWD THRU ERN NEB AND MOVE NWD THRU THE WATCH
AREA. STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INCLUDING
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19025.


...HALES
0 likes   

User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3397
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

MD Nr. 758

#49 Postby Bunkertor » Thu May 01, 2008 5:18 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:

#50 Postby wx247 » Thu May 01, 2008 5:24 pm

Cells are beginning to fire in Southern Kansas per the latest GRLevel 3. Let's see if they can break through...
0 likes   

User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:

#51 Postby wx247 » Thu May 01, 2008 5:30 pm

And apparently they can... warnings now up for Elk and Chataqua counties in Southeastern Kansas.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3397
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

Re:

#52 Postby Bunkertor » Thu May 01, 2008 5:39 pm

wx247 wrote:And apparently they can... warnings now up for Elk and Chataqua counties in Southeastern Kansas.


Yeah - looks like mushroom
0 likes   

User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:

#53 Postby wx247 » Thu May 01, 2008 5:42 pm

New Tornado Watch until 1 a.m. for much of Iowa, Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri.
Last edited by wx247 on Thu May 01, 2008 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3397
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

Re: MD Nr. 758 turned into a watch

#54 Postby Bunkertor » Thu May 01, 2008 5:42 pm

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#55 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 01, 2008 5:42 pm

Numbers on the new watch are surprisingly high (just under PDS-worthy) for mostly a 2% area:

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTAL IOWA
LARGE PART OF EASTERN KANSAS
LARGE PART OF WESTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 540 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF CHANUTE
KANSAS TO 50 MILES NORTH OF DES MOINES IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN NUMBER
AND INTENSITY ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE WHERE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXISTS. WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE AND APPROACH OF
MID LEVEL WIND MAX TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
LIKELY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...HALES


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTAL IOWA
LARGE PART OF EASTERN KANSAS
LARGE PART OF WESTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 540 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF CHANUTE
KANSAS TO 50 MILES NORTH OF DES MOINES IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN NUMBER
AND INTENSITY ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE WHERE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXISTS. WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE AND APPROACH OF
MID LEVEL WIND MAX TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
LIKELY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 012234
WOU4

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

TORNADO WATCH 244 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC001-003-007-009-015-027-029-039-047-049-053-073-077-099-117-
121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-
020600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0244.080501T2240Z-080502T0600Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BOONE CARROLL
CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD
DALLAS DECATUR GREENE
GUTHRIE JASPER LUCAS
MADISON MAHASKA MARION
MARSHALL MONROE POLK
POWESHIEK RINGGOLD STORY
TAMA TAYLOR UNION
WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE


KSC001-003-005-011-013-015-017-019-021-031-035-037-043-045-049-
059-073-085-087-091-099-103-107-111-121-125-133-139-177-197-205-
207-209-020600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0244.080501T2240Z-080502T0600Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON
BOURBON BROWN BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE
COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELK
FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE
LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE


MOC003-011-013-021-025-033-037-039-041-047-049-057-061-063-075-
079-081-083-087-095-097-101-107-109-115-117-129-145-147-159-165-
171-177-185-195-211-217-227-020600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0244.080501T2240Z-080502T0600Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDREW BARTON BATES
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CASS CEDAR CHARITON
CLAY CLINTON DADE
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HENRY
HOLT JACKSON JASPER
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE
LINN LIVINGSTON MERCER
NEWTON NODAWAY PETTIS
PLATTE PUTNAM RAY
SALINE ST. CLAIR SULLIVAN
VERNON WORTH


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...SGF...ICT...TOP...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW4
WW 244 TORNADO IA KS MO 012240Z - 020600Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45S CNU/CHANUTE KS/ - 50N DSM/DES MOINES IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /16WSW OSW - 35SE FOD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.

LAT...LON 37009683 42249513 42249219 37009412

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.


Watch 244 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

#56 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 01, 2008 6:01 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
552 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSC045-012315-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-080501T2315Z/
DOUGLAS-
552 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY...

AT 548 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED WITH WALNUT SIZE
HAIL 2 MILES SOUTH OF PLEASANT GROVE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF
LAWRENCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 42 MPH.

AT 554 PM CDT...QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN LAWRENCE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND EUDORA.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 202 AND 206.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

#57 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 01, 2008 6:06 pm

Snippet from NWS EAX:


...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

WATCHING POTENTIAL OF STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
MOISTURE AXIS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST ALONG KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER. 21Z TOPEKA SOUNDING
WHICH WAS WEST OF THIS AXIS...SHOWING CAPPING HAS GREATLY ERODED
JUST WEST OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING
TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG WITH WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
AXIS...WHERE CAP IS WEAKENING. IMPRESSIVE SURFACE HEATING HAS
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...WHICH
WOULD POINT TO STRONG UP DRAFTS IS STORMS CAN DEVELOP. LIMITING
FACTOR REMAINS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL
STRUGGLING IN THE LOWER 60S UP INTO WESTERN AREAS. STILL GOOD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT INDIVIDUAL STORMS...AND WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40
KT RANGE...WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FOR WARNING PURPOSES...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RUNNING IN THE 11-12K FT
RANGE...WOULD EXPECT ONE INCH HAIL WITH 50 DBZ TO 30K FT AND 60 DBZ
IN THE 25K FT RANGE. VILS AROUND 50 WOULD ALSO POINT TO 1 INCH
HAIL.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

#58 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 01, 2008 6:12 pm

Topeka TV cam looking SW Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

#59 Postby KatDaddy » Thu May 01, 2008 6:14 pm

Hey ED that is nice CAM catch. That cell is now just NE of Topeka. :D
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Possible Severe Event - 4/30 to 5/3

#60 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 01, 2008 6:22 pm

Much of Oklahoma now in a TorWatch

Image
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: snownado, TomballEd and 30 guests