Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[Cyclenall]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/IO/01B.NARGIS/ssmi/85h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html

The eye is more than fine

This is likely an upper cat 4 or a lower cat 5, but due to the eye size, the IR is having a little trouble detecting the eye. It is surrounded by cloud top temps of <193K

How cleared out do you think the eye really is? It's doesn't look good on current images.

[HURAKAN]

Eye becoming better defined.

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like 150-165 mph Maximum Winds- as Derek said High 4 or
low 5; the satellite is not resolved well- anyway the deep ring
of convection over a tiny eye and the convection is explosive.

[HURAKAN]

I altered the intensity of the colors of the image above. Don't think it's that intense!!!

This is the real color.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh ok thanks Hurakan!
Looks like with the small eye about 145 mph but weakening
as dry air is intruding from the northeast quadrant.

It is hard to tell the intensity just from seeing satellite but
I think with what Derek said it is high.
But still it may be between 125-145 mph.

[HURAKAN]

Eye becoming more clear.

[ugaap]

Estimated time for the Eye to hit Ayeyarwady Coast 0800 UTC around five hours from now

[Chacor]

IMD's forecast landfall is for evening/night, which would mean later (around 1200Z or later).

[HURAKAN]

Even better now.

_________________________

02/0230 UTC 15.8N 93.2E T6.0/6.0 NARGIS -- Bay of Bengal

[Derek Ortt]

JTWC lowered the winds due to likely flawed Dvorak estimates. IMO, they are not exactly doing much better than IMD with this storm

[Chacor]

IMD's up to T4.5.

[RL3AO]

75 kts? What a joke.

[Chacor]

75 kts? What a joke.

It had it at 75 kts T4.0 at 18z, so it's possible they're going higher.

[senorpepr]

FWIW...


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 MAY 2008 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 15:42:30 N Lon : 92:50:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 979.2mb/ 61.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 4.0 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -75.3C Cloud Region Temp : -85.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Eye continues to become more clear and defined.

[Chacor]

Probably not as clear as you think. Still pretty cloudy on IR.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

FKIN20 VIDP 020340

DTG: 20080502/0000Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: NARGIS
NR: 17

PSN: N1600 E09230
MOV: E10KT
C: 972 HPA

MAX WIND: 80KT GUSTING TO 90KT

FCST PSN+ 12 HRS: 021200 N1630 E09400
MAX WIND+12 HRS: 9OKT

FCST PSN +18HRS: OVER LAND

NEXT MSG: 20080502/0600Z

-----

[ugaap]

IMD's forecast landfall is for evening/night, which would mean later (around 1200Z or later).

IMD is the official agency monitoring this Storm but their Bulletins/Advisories comeout after the event happens. They are yet talking of landfall around 17N. The Eye of Nargis is currently located at 15.8N 93.4E which is just 1.1 Degree to landfall (Approximatey 120 Kms.)