Extremeweatherguy wrote:That clearing area has my attention too. I am starting to see some sunshine here in northern Harris county and the temperature is quickly rising through the 80s in response.
Oh, I hope so, but models suggest near/North of I-10 in SE Texas as cut-off for rain.
Lake Charles 12Z sounding has barely a hint of capping at 900 mb and again at 700 mb, but both are insignificant, and calculated CINH is -106, which suggests a little daytime heating and it is gone.
Corpus Christi has a cast iron cap 900 mb to 750 mb, much higher CINH and a convective temperature of 98ºF. The fact that the morning storms that made it past I-35 died, suggests we may be closer, upstairs, to Corpus Christi than Lake Charles.
NAM, RUC and GFS forecast soundings late this afternoon all show 2000 to 2500 J/Kg instability around Houston, but all show a warm nose around 750 mb that will probably keep a lid of things and the dry spell going.
RUC sounding has convective inhibition of -106 J/KG at Intercontinental at 7pm, but only -11 at Conroe, so people in Harris County may be able to witness the big towers going up, even if the rain is sparse here.
