Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (NARGIS) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 94.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 94.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.6N 96.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.7N 97.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.2N 98.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 95.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (NARGIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE FIXES AND RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY, WHICH INDICATE THE
EYE MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 021200Z. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A 021027Z SSMI
IMAGE THAT SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND. AS TC 01B MOVES INLAND, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU
36. THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE,
WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z
AND 031500Z.

[HurricaneRobert]

Oooh Ahhh

Check this one out:

[KWT]

Wow what an amazing looking cyclone, I have to agree with Derek looking at some of the sat.imagery I'd have gone for as high as 125kts...I relaly fear for the damage in that area.

Also it would only take a small adjustment south of the track for us to see it going into the gulf gain and maybe have some time to re-organise a little.

Scary system and the first real powerful landfalling system of the N.Hemispheric season.

[HURAKAN]

Still looking like it never touched land.

[KWT]

Looks like its just inland IMO but close to the coast. Also that makes me think more and more thats its going to have some time back over water, whether or not it'll have enough time to really ramp back up I don't know, but even now its still looking a very impressive system.

I guess it hasn't weakened much thanks to the little bays the eye keeps going over, must surely be slowing the weakening down.

[HURAKAN]

Finally beginning to feel the effects of land. Eye becoming less distinct.

[Chacor]

RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI


TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. THIRTY SEVEN ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 2 MAY, 2008 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 2 MAY, 2008.


THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED FURTHER EASTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 2 MAY 2008 VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MYANMAR NEAR 16.0 DEGREE NORTH AND CROSSED THE COAST NEAR 16.0 DEGREE NORTH BETWEEN 1200 UTC TO 1400 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 90 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 HPA.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.

[Chacor]

Comma-shaped now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Landfall at 150-155 mph Cat 4 IMO. Now looks like 125 mph Cat 3, with gradual
weakening. Areas near the center likely experiencing extreme winds. The maximum
strength was about 165 mph IMO in the image taken above prior to landfall.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Prayers for those in the path of the very destructive winds and potential
surge.

[senorpepr]

[senorpepr]

According to microwave imagery, it appears the the eye was elliptical just prior to landfall, the a major axis of 18mi and a minor axis of 14mi.

[senorpepr]

Personally, I think 115-120KT (130-140 mph) just prior to landfall was more appropriate

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That is what I call a well-wrapped system.

[KWT]

Certainly still does look like a very impressive storm right now!

[HURAKAN]

02/1430 UTC 16.1N 95.1E T5.5/6.0 NARGIS -- Bay of Bengal

NRL says 80 knots, Dvorak doesn't agree.

[Pedro Fernández]

What do you think about the very impresive (very big and deep) stormy band at the south of the main structure of NARGIS? That band has been developing and propagating with it since yesterday.

[KWT]

Yeah though to be fair whilst it does look very good on Sat right now given its overland you'd have to guess that friction would drop those sustained winds and I tend to think the NRL are closer.

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (NARGIS) WARNING NR 022
WTIO31 PGTW 022100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (NARGIS) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 95.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 95.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.3N 97.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.7N 98.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 96.0E.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
________________

Very close to the capital.

[HURAKAN]