Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Duddy]

2:05 PM EDT Discussion:

THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N10W 2N20W EQUATOR AT 34W THEN
1N43W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N TO 9N EAST OF 20W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST. A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA ALONG
15W/16W ON THE 12Z SFC MAP. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-PATTERN. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM
ALSO INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM DURING LAST
TWO DAYS...AND THE BAMAKO SOUNDING SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH/WAVE BETWEEN APRIL 30 AND MAY 1ST. BASED ON THIS DATA AND
THE TIME OF THE YEAR....A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE
18Z MAP.


http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

As Hurricane Season 2008 unofficially kicks off!!!!

[Cyclone1]

Let the games begin.

[Duddy]

18Z if I remember correctly is noon here in CST. Which map are they referring to?

[cycloneye]

18Z if I remember correctly is noon here in CST. Which map are they referring to?

They will introduce the wave at the 8 PM EDT discussion with the analysis of the 18:00z data.

[RL3AO]

18Z if I remember correctly is noon here in CST. Which map are they referring to?

18z=1pm CDT, noon CST.

Anyway, they are referring to the surface analysis map which hasn't been updated yet.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

[Duddy]

18Z if I remember correctly is noon here in CST. Which map are they referring to?

They will introduce the wave at the 8 PM EDT discussion with the analysis of the 18:00z data.

Oh OK. Thanks!

[gatorcane]

Is it not a bit early for a wave this "strong" to be coming off Africa?

[cycloneye]

Nothing shows up at quickscat suggesting a LLC.

[RL3AO]

Is it not a bit early for a wave this "strong" to be coming off Africa?

Considering it is May, plus the waters off of the immediate coast are very warm, and its under 5 knots of shear its not that much of a surprise.

[KWT]

It is an impressive wave for this time of year though the warmer then average sea temps probably helping to fuel the deep convection beyond the norm.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Strong Tropical Wave. Quikscat shows some orange wind barbs indicative
of 30-35 mph winds. The sea surface temperatures being much warmer
than normal are helping the convection, but given the monster
shear/dry air to the west and the time of year, it will evaporate
in a few days. Nevertheless, it is an impressive area of convection.

[gatorcane]

Look at Africa this evening, behind this wave. The convection is especially impressive whilst the mean lattitude of the ITCZ slowly makes its move northward as we head into the summer. Undoubtedly the convection will burst and wane over the next several months and now is not necessarily a harbinger of things to come once the real Cape Verde season begins in August.

[KWT]

No but its still pretty impressive for May, though to be fair this is the time of year when we do see things start to hot up along the ITCZ, esp over the eastern Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The northeastern side of the wave is pretty impressive, but dry air
is destroying the wave as a whole. On a side note, the convection
over Africa is explosive and spectacular, but it will fizzle out once
it is over the Eastern Atlantic in 3-5 days.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 16W/17W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N15W TO 8N19W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Ed Mahmoud]

That wave looked better earlier, but the first week of May seems awfully early to be Cape Verde blob watching.



Anything that might try to develop in the Atlantic the next few weeks would probably have non-tropical origins, and happen closer to home.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Mostly evaporated except for a broad area
of surface moisture and some thunderstorms.

[tolakram]

Wait till it gets to the EPAC, then it might be interesting to watch.