Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[KWT]

Looks like its starting to do the predicted turn as well more to the NE looking at those forecast points.

[Chacor]

Rangoon had better brace itself.

[Chacor]

ob VYYY 030030Z VRB60G120KT 0500M TSRA SCT006 BKN012 FEW015CB OVC070 20/20 Q 0981

60 kts gusting 120 kts, 981 hPa at Rangoon Airport right now.

[senorpepr]

Rangoon had better brace itself.

VYYY 030000Z VRB60G120KT 0500M TSRA SCT006 BKN012 FEW015CB OVC070 23/23 Q 0976;
VYYY 022300Z VRB60G120KT 1000 TSRA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC070 23/23 Q 0975;
VYYY 022200Z VRB45G90KT 1000 TSRA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC070 23/23 Q 0978;
VYYY 022130Z VRB45G90KT TSRA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC070 23/23 Q 980;
VYYY 021800Z 05010G20KT 2000 -TSRA BKN015 FEW18CB OVC080 23/23 Q 993;
VYYY 021700Z 06015G45KT 2000 +TSRA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC080 23/23 Q 995;
VYYY 021600Z 08005G15KT 2000 TSRA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC080 25/25 Q 997;
VYYY 021530Z 08005G15KT 2000 TSRA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC080 25/25 Q 997;
VYYY 021300Z 20006KT 3000 TSRA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC0080 23/23 Q 998;
VYYY 021200Z 05005KT 5000 -TSRA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC080 23/23 Q 998;
VYYY 021100Z 11005KT 4000 TSRA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC080 24/24 Q 999;
VYYY 021000Z 19003KT 3000 TSRA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC080 25/25 Q 999;
VYYY 020900Z 20007KT 4000 TSRA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC080 25/25 Q 999;
VYYY 020800Z 13008KT 6000 BKN015 FEW018CB OVC090 25/25 Q 1000;
VYYY 020730Z 04004KT 6000 -RA BKN015 FEW018CB OVC090 25/25 Q 1000;
VYYY 020600Z 08008KT 6000 BKN015 FEW018CB OVC090 26/26 Q 1002 NOSIG;
VYYY 020500Z 05007KT 6000 BKN015 FEW018CB OVC090 25/25 Q 1003 NOSIG;
VYYY 020330Z 06004KT 7000 DZ BKN015 FEW020CB BKN100 25/25 Q 1004;
VYYY 020230Z 08003KT 7000 DZ BKN013 FEW018CB BKN100 24/24 Q 1004;

[Chacor]

ob VYYY 030130Z VRB60G120KT 0100M +TSRA SCT006 BKN010 FEW012CB OVC070 20/20 Q 0988

[Chacor]

[Derek Ortt]

are those winds from Rangon estimates? They seem that way based upon the fact that they are very nice numbers

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yikes! That is one hell of a METAR for Yangon.

The second northern hemisphere storm (yes I know there've only be two) that ECMWF model has really been spot on with.

[senorpepr]

are those winds from Rangon estimates? They seem that way based upon the fact that they are very nice numbers

I was thinking the same thing. Unfortunately, there is really know way of knowing unless you call the observer.

[senorpepr]

Here's the TAF on file for Yangon:

VYYY 022130Z 030024 21006KT 8000 BKN020 FEW025CB BKN100
TEMPO 0004 0612 04015G35T 2000 +TSRA BKN018 FEW020CB OVC080;

[HurricaneBill]

News report:

Cyclone Nargis hits Rangoon

[Cyclenall]

The Cyclone doesn't look that bad for already making landfall. Flooding rains must be transpiring now.

[Sanibel]

Missed a Bay of Bengal storm! I'd guess borderline category 3 from the dvorak and estimate screw-ups.

Not a word on CNN.

[Rachell]

I have to say that IMD is quite weird all the time.

1.The cyclone remained very severe intensity(a pinhole eye and CMG surrounded, possibly intensified slightly before making landfall), however, IMD only gave T5.0(90KT) at it's peak.

2.IMD is an agency which is using 3-min measurement, it means that T5.0 should not be equal to 90KT because IMD is not JTWC.

3.IMD issued the final warning for NARGIS, but it is quite interesting that NARGIS still remains very strong convection and organization, in my opinion, I will continue to regard it as a cyclone despite the Dvorak analysis is not available at the moment.

In conclusion, IMD should be ashamed of its bad performance.

[Chacor]

There's no question it's still a cyclone and I'm very surprised the IMD have stopped warning.

On the 3-minute or 10-minute issue, there is some confusion. Officially the operational plan says both 10 minute averages and 3 minute means are used.

As to the Dvorak system, it's possible IMD are using their own CI scale (both Meteo France and JMA use their own), but I doubt it.

[Chacor]

Still issuing through their marine bulletins...

WTIN20 DEMS 030705

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-05-2008 (.)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT
24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM `NARGIS' OVER MYANMAR MOVED
NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300UTC OF TODAY ,
THE 3RD MAY 2008 , NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 DEG. N AND LONG.
96.0 E CLOSE TO YANGON. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE
IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALY.

INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE ABOVE SYSTEM (.)

[Rachell]

There's no question it's still a cyclone and I'm very surprised the IMD have stopped warning.

On the 3-minute or 10-minute issue, there is some confusion. Officially the operational plan says both 10 minute averages and 3 minute means are used.

As to the Dvorak system, it's possible IMD are using their own CI scale (both Meteo France and JMA use their own), but I doubt it.

- -it's ok...

but IMD still uses the "1-min wind speed", however, they change the "Pressure", such as GONU, IMD gave it 130KT(T6.5), but the pressure was 920hPa(higher??), orginally it should be 910hPa when the T-NO. is 6.5, quite a strange CI scale- -

[Chacor]

There's no question it's still a cyclone and I'm very surprised the IMD have stopped warning.

On the 3-minute or 10-minute issue, there is some confusion. Officially the operational plan says both 10 minute averages and 3 minute means are used.

As to the Dvorak system, it's possible IMD are using their own CI scale (both Meteo France and JMA use their own), but I doubt it.

- -it's ok...

but IMD still uses the "1-min wind speed", however, they change the "Pressure", such as GONU, IMD gave it 130KT(T6.5), but the pressure was 920hPa(higher??), orginally it should be 910hPa when the T-NO. is 6.5, quite a strange CI scale- -

I'm not sure about that. Maybe there were readings available to them from ships or observation buoys. Oh, and I never did welcome you. 欢迎！

[Rachell]

There's no question it's still a cyclone and I'm very surprised the IMD have stopped warning.

On the 3-minute or 10-minute issue, there is some confusion. Officially the operational plan says both 10 minute averages and 3 minute means are used.

As to the Dvorak system, it's possible IMD are using their own CI scale (both Meteo France and JMA use their own), but I doubt it.

- -it's ok...

but IMD still uses the "1-min wind speed", however, they change the "Pressure", such as GONU, IMD gave it 130KT(T6.5), but the pressure was 920hPa(higher??), orginally it should be 910hPa when the T-NO. is 6.5, quite a strange CI scale- -

I'm not sure about that. Maybe there were readings available to them from ships or observation buoys. Oh, and I never did welcome you. 欢迎！

I forget to say I'm a new comer- -either...thank you so much!

ok, let's come back to the topic, I don't believe they have been able to the the observation, you know, India, is not another USA, but what doubt me is they always underestimate nearly every tropical cyclone(s).

[HURAKAN]

Did anyone notice that since 2006 Naypyidaw is the capital of Myanmar, not Yangon?

Yangon is now just the largest city of the country.